The impacts of trade liberalization and integration strategies on Brazilian economy . ( Working in progress ) (original) (raw)
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Regional impacts of trade liberalization strategies in Brazil
Belo Horizonte: UFMG/ …, 2004
There is a great interest in free trade areas (FTA) in Brazil, predominantly in the context of a proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). In addition, a free trade area between MERCOSUR (the customs union involving Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay) and the European Union has also been considered. In this paper, an interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the long-run regional effects of alternative trade liberalization strategies on Brazil. The model provides a description of the Brazilian inter-regional economic system, divided into two regions -Sao Paulo and Other Regions in Brazil. One of its innovations is a full specification of foreign trade in both regions, capturing the complete structure of trade flows and import tariffs, linking the two Brazilian regions and a set of foreign markets. In this way, adequate simulations of tariff liberalization can be implemented for several possibilities of trade agreements.
Interregional impacts of trade liberalization strategies in Brazil
Revista EconomiA, 2004
In this paper, an interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the long-run regional effects of alternative trade liberalization strategies on Brazil. The model provides a description of the Brazilian interregional economic system, divided into two regions -São Paulo and Other Brazilian Regions. One of its innovations is a full specification of foreign trade in both regions, capturing the complete structure of trade flows and import tariffs, linking the two Brazilian regions and a set of foreign markets. In this way, adequate simulations of tariff liberalization can be implemented for several possibilities of trade agreements.
Regional effects of economic integration: the case of Brazil
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2002
In this paper, alternative strategies of economic integration are evaluated from the Brazilian perspective. Traditional trade gains and losses are considered in a cost-competitiveness approach, based on relative changes in the industrial cost and demand structures. In the first part of the analysis, a national CGE model is used in order to assess the first-round impacts of three alternative trade liberalization scenarios. In the second part, a Machlup-Goodwin-type interregional model is integrated to the CGE model in order to generate a top-down disaggregation of the national results. Spatial implications of the trade policies are assessed, showing that the trade strategies examined are likely to increase regional inequality in the country.
Short-run Regional Effects of Alternative Strategies for Economic Integration: The Case of Brazil
ERSA conference papers, 2001
Motivated by both economic and political objectives, Brazil has been pursuing, in recent years, different trade arrangements in an attempt to reinforce strategic impulses for economic development. In this paper, alternative strategies of economic integration are evaluated from the Brazilian perspective. Traditional trade gains and losses are considered in a cost-competitiveness approach, based on relative changes in the industrial cost and demand structures. In the first part of the analysis, a national computable general equilibrium model is used in order to assess the first-round impacts of three alternative trade liberalization scenarios. The main findings indicate that general trade agreements under WTO negotiations are preferable to either the implementation of a free trade area in the Americas or regional agreements involving Mercosur and the European Union. However, each trade arrangement would entail differential structural impacts that serve to different development purposes. In the second part, a Machlup-Goodwin-type interregional model is integrated to the CGE model in order to generate a top-down disaggregation of the national results. Spatial implications of the trade policies are assessed, showing that the trade strategies examined are likely to increase regional inequality in the country.
The Impacts of Trade on the Brazilian Labor Market: A CGE Model Approach
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The paper assesses the impacts of trade liberalization on macroeconomic variables and labor market indicators in Brazil. The discussion comes out of an earlier debate on the role of trade liberalization in shaping labor market outcomes in the well-known Heckscher-Ohlin and Stolper-Samuelson (HOS) theorems. To address these issues, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach to model the patterns of export growth by sector and their effects on macroeconomic and labor market indicators. Overall our results show that trade liberalization contributes to improve economic welfare by means of greater output, lower domestic prices, and higher labor demand. The benefits of this economic improvement tend however, to be appropriated by the most skilled workers in the most trade-oriented sectors, contradicting the predictions of the HOS theorems.
OECD Trade Policy Papers, 2013
The OECD Trade Policy Working Paper series is designed to make available to a wide readership selected studies by OECD staff or by outside consultants. This paper has been developed as a contribution to the International Collaborative Initiative on Trade and Employment (ICITE) coordinated by the OECD. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD, OECD member country governments or partners of the ICITE initiative. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Interstate and international trade of brazilian regions: an analysis using the gravity model
2016
This paper analyzes the interstate and international trade of Brazilian regions in the period following trade liberalization. To carry out the analysis, the paper uses the gravity model methodology. The estimated trade models show that the border effect is still very significant for the foreign trade in Brazilian regions despite the process of economic openness that took place in the 1990s. The results show that the factors of resistance to the expansion of foreign trade still persist. Using a gravity model which considers the Brazilian states and the countries of the Southern Common Market (Mercosul) as a single market shows that then creation of this block increased trade in the region at the expense of other trading partners.
2008
Economists generally pay little attention to the effects of liberal trade policies on the internal geography of countries. This paper presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that examines how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country's foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations are presented where import barriers are significantly reduced. The relative importance of import tariffs, port efficiency and maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified. A final set of simulations shed some light on the spatial effects of scale economies, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of increasing returns to scale at the firm level. Coreperiphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity as the country opens up to foreign trade, a result quite in line with recent advances in NEG models.
2006
This paper aims at assessing the impacts of international integration on the export flows of Brazilian states. We use a gravity model with dummy variables for the main partner blocs and for each pair Brazilian region-partner country, to account for the specificities of particular trade relations. Variables capturing regional openness and competitiveness are also included. We estimate a pooled cross-section model, with data for 24 countries, 27 states, and 4 years. After controlling for size and distance, trade with Mercosur and the EU is more intense than with the rest of the world. Brazilian states that account for larger shares of total interregional trade tend to trade less internationally, while the opposite holds for those that are more competitive. There are important specific factors between Brazilian regions and partner countries, as in the case of Mercosur. The results also indicate that sectoral specificities play a role in explaining state's exports, as in the case of...