Challenges and Opportunities of a Forthcoming Strategic Assessment of the Implications of International Climate Change Mitigation Commitments for Individual Undertakings in Canada (original) (raw)

The Road to Paris: Navigating the intergovernmental path to our climate commitments

This paper looks at a key reason behind Canada’s persistent failure to meet its self-imposed climate change commitments, and proposes a new institution that will be important to overcoming this failure. In 2016, Canada’s federal, provincial and territorial (FPT) governments – minus Manitoba and Saskatchewan – signed the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change (PCF). The PCF collected a host of FPT climate change policies and programs and also laid out a set of new measures designed to help Canada reach the greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets that it committed to at the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015. Unfortunately, despite the very real progress that the PCF represents, Canada is still not on track to meet its climate change targets. Why are we still failing, and why have we consistently failed to meet our emissions reductions targets for the last 30 years? One major reason is that solving the climate change policy problem requires collaboratively aligning all 14 FPT governments’ climate change policies – and Canada’s existing intergovernmental institutions are simply not up to the task of making that happen. Any successful Canadian climate change policy will need to be able to reduce Canada’s emissions in a way that is effective, efficient and fair. New and innovative intergovernmental institutional frameworks are required to achieve this and to overcome the various obstacles – such as diverging regional interests and significant economic diversity – that have scuttled previous efforts. This paper argues that a new independent institution, co-created by the FPT governments, will be a crucial first step in this direction. This new climate change institution should be mandated to give evidence-based advice aimed at collaboratively optimizing Canada’s 14 separate FPT climate change policies and to guide the allocation of federal transfers designed to help address the asymmetrical economic burden emissions reduction policies will create, specifically in emissions-intensive provinces.

Strengthening Strategic Environmental Assessment in Canada: An Evaluation of Three Basic Options

Journal of Environmental Law and Practice, 2010

Canada has a long and diverse but largely disappointing record in integrating environmental and sustainability considerations into the development of policies, plans, programs and other strategic undertakings. For over 25 years, the federal government has had a policy-based strategic environmental assessment (SEA) process. In 2003, the deficiencies of this process led the House of Commons Standing Committee on Environment and Sustainable Development to recommend establishment of a legislated framework for mandatory SEA before the 2010 Parliamentary review of environmental assessment. Governments since then have not acted on this recommendation but have promised to strengthen federal SEA. In this paper, we examine the three basic options for strengthening federal SEA — a law-based option, a policy-guided option and a combined law and policy approach — using criteria drawn from international assessment literature and reviews of Canadian and international SEA experience. In the Canadian context, the combined approach appears to be most promising. Accordingly, we provide a broad outline of how an integrated law and policy-based SEA regime could be structured to satisfy the criteria and deliver a workable union of firmness and flexibility.

Long-term goals and post-2012 commitments: where do we go from here with climate policy?

Climate Policy, 2005

With entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, climate change negotiators are turning their attention to the question, 'Where do we go from here?'. A key component of answering this question is in understanding the implications for society of alternative long-term goals for greenhouse gas concentrations. One challenge in ongoing negotiations is whether and how to deal with meanings of 'dangerous interference' as outlined in Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This study addresses Article 2 by suggesting the use of long-term goals to guide decisions about the stringency and timing of future climate change commitments. Focusing on mitigation policy benefits and, in particular, on avoiding long-term climate impacts, a number of management approaches and their implications are highlighted. After discussing some challenges of using scientific knowledge to monitor and manage progress, we look at what we can learn from current climate change global impact literature. Solid benchmark indicators appear to be available from global mean temperature change, ecosystems and coastal zone impacts information. We conclude by arguing for global goal-setting based on climate change effects and the use of indicators in these areas as part of post-2012 climate change negotiations. Aggregate global impacts suggest that 3-4°C of global mean temperature increase by 2100 (compared to a reference period of 1990) may be a threshold beyond which all known sector impacts are negative and rising with increasing levels of warming. However, marginal benefits may accrue at lower levels of mean change. Thus, a prudent policy might aim for significantly lower levels and slower rates of global warming.

Guidance on a Strategic Climate Assessment Approach

2013

Appraisal practices in Europe 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Impact Assessment in the European Commission 2.3 Strategic environmental assessment 2.4 Key insights from the RESPONSES Project 3 Appraising consistency of policies with deep emissions cuts 3.1 Implications of the 2°C target 3.2 How will Europe decouple energy use from greenhouse gas emissions? 3.3 What about energy efficiency? 3.4 Key insights from the RESPONSES project 4 Exceeding the 2°C target 4.1 The importance of the issue, and problematic nature of current assessment practice 4.2 RESPONSES research on mainstreaming climate change beyond 2°C 4.3 Key insights from the RESPONSES project 5 Adaptation goals 5.1 Defining adaptation goals for sectors: a risk management approach 5.2 Uncertainty in climate change impacts and in policy effectiveness 5.3

Future realities of climate change impacts: an integrated assessment study of Canada

International Journal of Global Warming, 2019

This paper presents an integrated assessment model for use with climate policy decision making in Canada. The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI_CDN represents Canada within the global society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system. The model uses a system dynamics simulation approach to investigate the impacts of climate change in Canada and policy options for adapting to changing global conditions. The disaggregation techniques allow ANEMI_CDN to show results with various temporal resolutions. Two Canadian policy scenarios are presented as illustrative examples to map policy impacts on key model variables, including population, water-stress, food production, energy consumption, and emissions under changing climate over this century. The main finding is a significant impact of a carbon tax on energy consumption. Two policy scenario simulations provide additional insights to policy makers regarding the choice of adaptation/mitigation options along with their implementation time.

Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Nature Communications, 2020

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while effici...

Pathway to Accountability a Strategic Framework for Evaluating Climate Adaptation Interventions

2021

A key factor contributing to the success of climate adaptation interventions is the use of government-wide strategic evaluation processes that analyze the impacts of the various adaptation interventions used across government departments. There are currently no overarching strategic policies or frameworks for the cross-governmental evaluation of adaptation interventions in Canada. To find a potential solution to this problem, this study analyzes best practices in evaluation design for climate adaptation and government accountability assessments using a mixed-methodology approach. These methodologies are a literature review, theory-based approach, bowtie methodology, and understanding of jurisdictional issues. The findings are used to develop a scalable and replicable Climate Adaptation Accountability Framework that establishes a process governments' can use to evaluate whether they are meeting their adaptation commitments. To contextualize this issue in a pragmatic context, the study is centered on the provincial climate adaptation approaches employed by British Columbia in the transportation infrastructure sector.

The Role of Climate Change Policy Work in Canada

2012

Abstract. An ongoing concern with many Canada's governments is avoiding climate change related policy failure, including that associated with climate change. In response, there has been a spate of government-led climate change vulnerability and risk assessments, studies, and strategies. With a growing attention on developing the 'right'policies and program to address climate change needs to be examined as an important factor in 'adaptive capacity'.

Assessing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement

By 29 October 2015, 156 Parties (representing approximately 90% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2012) had submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UNFCCC in preparation for the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015 (UNFCCC, 2015). In this report, we assess the mitigation components of the INDCs of 102 of these Parties (representing approximately 89% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2012), including the EU28 Member States. The main findings of this assessment are: Findings regarding global emissions: The collective ambition of the INDCs put forward in 2030 falls short of what is needed to put the world directly on a cost-effective pathway to keep the global temperature increase below 2 °C; however, if fully implemented, the INDCs will deliver significant emission reductions from business-as-usual trends. – Full implementation of all unconditional INDCs is projected to reduce yearly global greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 9 (5–10) GtCO2eq by 2030, relative to the PBL business-as-usual scenario of about 65 GtCO2eq in 2030. – Additional implementation of all conditional INDCs (which would require some form of international climate finance or international cooperation mechanisms) would increase this projected reduction to about 11 (7–13) GtCO2eq in 2030 below PBL business-as-usual levels. – Despite these projected reductions relative to business-as-usual levels, global emissions are projected to increase until at least 2030, to about 56 (54–60) GtCO2eq if the unconditional INDCs are implemented, or to about 54 (52–58) GtCO2eq if the conditional INDCs are implemented as well. The median estimates for 2030 are 13% to 18% above 2010 emission levels. – Implementation of the unconditional INDCs would still leave an emission gap of 14 (13–18) GtCO2eq relative to the global emission level needed for keeping the temperature increase below 2 °C with a likely chance (42 GtCO2eq in 2030, as estimated in the UNEP Gap Report of 2014). Implementation of the conditional INDCs would further reduce this gap to 12 (10–16) GtCO2eq. Findings regarding national INDCs (G20 members): the presented analysis of individual INDCs shows how INDC implementation could enable a transition from business-as-usual trends to lower emission levels, lower emissions per capita and lower emission intensities at both national and global levels. – Based on national INDCs, emissions in middle-income countries such as Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil and South Korea are expected to peak before 2025. Emissions in China, India and South Africa are expected to peak by 2030 or later. Emissions in most high-income countries have already peaked in the past. – The largest emission reductions in 2030 relative to the PBL business-as-usual scenario (which assumes that no new climate policies will be implemented) are projected for Australia, Brazil and Canada. – Full implementation of submitted INDCs (unconditional and conditional) would decrease global net land-use (LULUCF) emissions by 2.6 GtCO2eq in 2030 compared to national business-as-usual projections, which is approximately one third of the total global emission reduction that would result from the full implementation of all unconditional INDCs. The largest absolute reductions in land-use emissions are expected for Brazil and Indonesia, followed by the United States, China, Ethiopia, Gabon and Democratic Republic of the Congo. – Based on the submitted INDCs, per capita emission levels are projected to decline between 2010 and 2030 in all G20 countries except Argentina, China, India, the Russian Federation and Turkey. – Similarly, emission intensities (emissions per GDP) are projected to decline between 2010 and 2030 in all G20 countries except Turkey, indicating a relative decoupling of economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. Decoupling – implying absolute emission reductions in a growing economy – is projected for 13 to 15 of the G20 countries, depending on the conditionality of their INDCs. – While the aggregate effect of submitted INDCs is projected to be insufficient to close the global emission gap, INDCs of some countries are nevertheless consistent with national cost-optimal below-2 °C pathways (EU28, United States) and/or below-2 °C pathways based on converging per capita emissions (United States).