Estimating the human error probability using the fuzzy logic approach of CREAM (The case of a control room in a petrochemical industry) (original) (raw)

2015

Abstract

Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) is one of the Second Generation methods of human reliability analysis (HRA) that focus on the contextual conditions in which the task is performed. The second generation method of HRA was developed to address the limitation of the First Generation methods, which their center of attention was inherent human error probabilities with less attention to the conditions of the workplace. The CREAM benefits from two methods of quantification namely, Basic, and Extended methods. The Basic method is a rapid and simple way to estimate the probability of human error based on the level of control that operators have on their performance. However, the result obtained by this method is an interval value rather than a specific value that can be used in quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods. To overcome this issue, a fuzzy logic approach was developed on the basis of CREAM methodology. In this research, the fuzzy modeling of CREAM is appli...

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