Modeling the Determinants of Internal Migration in Turkey (original) (raw)

2011, International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2011

This paper aims to investigate major determinants of interprovincial migration in Turkey until 2010. In recent decades the magnitude of migration in absolute terms has increased considerably: During 1975-1980, 3.6 million people migrated, which constitutes 9.4% of the total population. These numbers have increased to 6.7 million people and 11.2% in the 1995-2000 period. The rate of increase is especially tremendous for the 1985-1990 period with 41%. Over the years the composition of migration has also changed: In the past rural-to-urban migration was predominant; however, today there is remarkable amount of urban-to-urban migration. During 1975-1980, 66% of the total migrants were towards urban centers, which increased to 75% during 1995-2000. On the other hand, the percentage of total migrants towards the village centers declined from 34 to 25 in the respective periods. From 2008 on, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) started publishing yearly unemployment statistics at provincial level, which permits an analysis of Turkey's migration patterns within the Harris-Todaro framework. Moreover since 2007, TUIK started implementing Address Based Population Registration System, which enables tracking migration moves continuously, rather than by intermittent five to ten year periods. However, data was not adequate to test Turkey's migration within the Harris-Todaro framework, especially due to lack of average wages at the provincial level. Therefore, utilizing the 2010 provincial level data, we tried to explain Turkey's internal migration based on variables such as population born outside of their current province, number of university students, and a proxy variable we developed for average wages.