Daily Mean Sea Level Pressure Reconstructions for the European–North Atlantic Region for the Period 1850–2003 (original) (raw)
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Agu Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2008
Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5°9 5°resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W-50°E; 20°N-70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750-1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies. Keywords Sea level pressure Á Climate field reconstructions Á Logbooks Á Instrumental pressure series Á Europe Á Principal component regression Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (
Climate Dynamics, 2010
Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.
Seasonal mean pressure reconstruction for the North Atlantic (1750 1850) based on early marine data
Climate of The Past Discussions, 2005
Measures of wind strength and direction abstracted from European ships' logbooks during the recently finished CLIWOC project have been used to produce the first gridded Sea Level Pressure (SLP) reconstruction for the 1750-1850 period over the North Atlantic based solely on marine data. The reconstruction is based on a spatial regres-5 sion analysis calibrated by using data taken from the ICOADS database. An objective methodology has been developed to select the optimal calibration period and spatial domain of the reconstruction by testing several thousands of possible models. The finally selected area, limited by the performance of the regression equations and by the availability of data, covers the region between 28 • N and 52 • N close to the Euro-10 pean coast and between 28 • N and 44 • N in the open Ocean. The results provide a direct measure of the strength and extension of the Azores High during the 101 years of the study period. The comparison with the recent land-based SLP reconstruction by Luterbacher et al. (2002) indicates the presence of a common signal. The interannual variability of the CLIWOC reconstructions is rather high due to the current scarcity of 15 abstracted wind data in the areas with best response in the regression. Guidelines are proposed to optimize the efficiency of future abstraction work. mid 19th century. Currently, the most complete SLP gridded dataset (HADSLP2) has 58 CPD 1, 57-92, 2005
Journal of Climate, 2006
An upgraded version of the Hadley Centre's monthly historical mean sea level pressure (MSLP) dataset (HadSLP2) is presented. HadSLP2 covers the period from 1850 to date, and is based on numerous terrestrial and marine data compilations. Each terrestrial pressure series used in HadSLP2 underwent a series of quality control tests, and erroneous or suspect values were either corrected, where possible, or removed. Marine observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set were quality controlled (assessed against climatology and near neighbors) and then gridded. The final gridded form of HadSLP2 was created by blending together the processed terrestrial and gridded marine MSLP data. MSLP fields were made spatially complete using reduced-space optimal interpolation. Gridpoint error estimates were also produced.
Reduced Space Optimal Interpolation of Historical Marine Sea Level Pressure: 1854–1992*
Journal of Climate, 2000
Near-global 4Њ ϫ 4Њ gridded analysis of marine sea level pressure (SLP) from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set for monthly averages from 1854 to 1992 was produced along with its estimated error using a reduced space optimal interpolation method. A novel procedure of covariance adjustment brought the results of the analysis to the consistency with the a priori assumptions on the signal covariance structure. Comparisons with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research global atmosphere reanalysis, with the National Center for Atmospheric Research historical analysis of the Northern Hemisphere SLP, and with the global historical analysis of the U.K. Meteorological Office show encouraging skill of the present product and identifies noninclusion of the land data as its main limitation. Marine SLP pressure proxies are produced for the land stations used in the definitions of the Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Surprisingly, they prove to be competitive in quality with the land station records. Global singular value decomposition analysis of the SLP fields versus sea surface temperature identified three major patterns of their joint large-scale and long-term variability as ''trend,'' Pacific decadal oscillation, and NAO. * Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Contribution Number 5982.
A European daily high-resolution observational gridded data set of sea level pressure
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011
In this study we introduce a daily high-resolution land-only observational gridded data set for sea level pressure covering the European region as a new addition to the E-OBS gridded data sets of daily temperatures and precipitation amounts. This data set improves upon existing products in terms of spatial resolution and extent. The data set is delivered on the same four spatial resolutions as the other E-OBS data sets; 0.25 • by 0.25 • and 0.5 • by 0.5 • on a regular latitude-longitude grid, and 0.22 • by 0.22 • and 0.44 • by 0.44 • on a rotated pole grid. We show that there is a good agreement in the long term mean and standard deviation with popular reanalysis grids. In areas with a relatively high number of stations, the gridded data is closer to the station data than the reanalysis products. There is also a very good agreement with daily weather charts for selected storm events.
Reconstruction of sea level pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500
Climate Dynamics, 2002
Spatially and temporally high-resolution estimates of past natural climate variability are important to assess recent significant climate trends. The mid-latitude atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for regional changes in temperature, rainfall, and other climatic variables. Here we present reconstructions of gridded monthly sea level pressure (SLP) fields back to 1659 and seasonal reconstructions from 1500-1658 for the eastern North Atlantic-European region (30°W to 40°E; 30°N to 70°N). These were developed using principal component regression analysis based on the combination of early instrumental station series (pressure, temperature and precipitation) and documentary proxy data from Eurasian sites. The relationships were derived over the 1901-1960 calibration period and verified over . Under the assumption of stationarity in the statistical relationships, a transfer function derived over the 1901-1990 period was used to reconstruct the 500-year largescale SLP fields. Systematic quality testing indicated reliable winter reconstructions throughout the entire period. Lower skill was obtained for the other seasons, although meaningful monthly reconstructions were available from around 1700 onwards, when station pressure series became available. The quality and the reconstructed SLP fields for two exceptionally cold years (1573, 1740) are discussed and climatologically interpreted. An EOF analysis of the 1500-1999 winter SLP revealed, firstly, a zonal flow pattern with pronounced decadal to centenial time scale variations, secondly, a monopole pattern over northwest Europe and thirdly, a pattern modulating the meridional flow component over Europe. These 500year SLP reconstructions should be useful for modelling studies, particulary for analyses of low-frequency atmospheric variability and for circulation dynamics.
2020
The variability of the sea level pressure in the North Atlantic sector is the most important driver of weather and climate in Europe. The main mode of this variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explains up to 50% of the total variance. Other modes, known as the Scandinavian index, East Atlantic, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern, complement the variability of the sea level pressure, thereby influencing the European climate. It has been shown previously that a seasonal prediction system with enhanced winter NAO skill due to ensemble subsampling entails an improved prediction of the surface climate variables as well. Here, we show that a refined subselection procedure that accounts both for the NAO index and for the three additional modes of sea level pressure variability is able to further increase the prediction skill of wintertime mean sea level pressure, near-surface temperature, and precipitation across Europe. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric winter conditions in Europe are primarily controlled by the varying pressure field over the North Atlantic, influencing temperature and precipitation in Europe. Current seasonal forecasts of European winter climate, though highly desirable for society and economy, are as yet not fully reliable. There exist a number of autumn predictors, such as sea surface and stratospheric temperature, Eurasian snow depth, and Arctic sea ice, that impact on the upcoming pressure regimes in a predictable way. The present dynamical seasonal forecast systems respond still too weakly to these known seasonal predictors. But the relationship is reproduced quite well by means of statistics. In combination, statistical and dynamical forecasts have the potential to improve forecasts of the North Atlantic pressure conditions and thereby affected variables like temperature and precipitation in Europe considerably. We extend an existing hybrid seasonal forecast procedure by considering more modes of variability of the Atlantic pressure regimes than just the North Atlantic Oscillation. In this way, we are able to improve the forecasts for temperature and precipitation over wider regions in Europe. Cohen et al. (2019) argue that new statistical techniques can increase the accuracy of seasonal forecasts and advocate the development of hybrid dynamical-statistical forecasts to produce more robust seasonal predictions. Hybrid forecasts based on circulation specification were presented, for example, by Baker, Shaffrey, and Scaife (2018) and Dobrynin et al. (2018). In boreal winter, European weather and climate is dominated by the zonal propagation of planetary and synoptic-scale waves. This large-scale circulation is an extremely high-dimensional phenomenon in real RESEARCH LETTER
A 40 YEARS HINDCAST OF WIND, SEA LEVEL AND WAVES IN EUROPEAN WATERS
Proceedings of 21st …, 2002
The paper describes the initial efforts in a project whose objective is to obtain a 40-year hindcast of wind, sea level and wave climatology for European waters. The 40-year global atmospheric re-analysis carried out by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction, Washington, USA (NCEP) and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA (NCAR) will be used as forcing of limited area atmospheric models. The fine grid atmospheric fields will be used to force state-of-the-art wave models (WAM) and sea level models (HAMSOM and TELEMAC) in regional areas around Europe so as to produce climatic information on waves, sea levels, and currents in a very large extend of the European waters, including the Mediterranean, North East Atlantic and North Sea. The available satellite data, including wind, wave and sea-level data, will be collected and will be used to be compared with the hindcast results, so as to yield uncertainty measures related to the data. Statistical analysis of the produced atmospheric, sea level and wave hindcast and remote sensed data will be performed in order to provide information about the climatological trends in the European Waters and Coastal Seas.
2013
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