Electoral Success and Political Institutionalization in the Federal Deputy Elections in Brazil (1998, 2002, 2006) (original) (raw)
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This article aims to identify the variables with the greatest impact on the chances of electoral success for candidates for the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies* in the 1998, 2002 and 2006 elections. Based upon data provided by the Supreme Electoral Court, this article firstly analyzes the relations between occupation, gender and level of education, on the one hand, and the electoral results (those elected and not elected), on the other. The article then presents a model of logistic regression in order to measure the real impact of these variables on the candidates' chances of electoral success. The same procedure was repeated for the right-, center and left-wing parties. We conclude that being a professional politician is the most important variable in determining the electoral success of a Federal Deputy candidate in Brazil, in the elections that were analyzed.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of distinct institutional rules on choices of electoral strategies made by legislators in the 1998 Brazilian elections. Two types of constraints were assessed. The first set refers to pressures created by the Brazilian open-list proportional representation electoral system that tends to personalize the vote. The second emerges from the centralizing effect of the internal rules of the Chamber of Deputies, which shift bargaining power from the individualized incumbent to party leaders and to the President, basically due to their control of the Chamber's agenda and discretion over the allocation of public funds. We find that both institutional settings influence the outcomes of elections, but that constituency interests appear to be a stronger constraint to legislator's choice of electoral strategies.
The Presence of Incumbents Electoral Competition and Reelection in Brazil (1990-2014)
Brazilian Political Science Review, 2020
What are the effects of attempts at reelection on electoral competition? We have tested the assumption that attempts at reelection have a positive and significant effect on electoral competition. We measured electoral competition using two indicators: Imbalance index T (Taagepera) and generalized concentration index (Herfindahl-Hirscham (HH)). We analyzed data on the seven last Brazilian national elections (1990-2014). We employed descriptive (variable measures and times series) and inferential statistics (regression analysis with panel data). Our main findings: 01. the percentage and the concentration of incumbents has a significant and negative effect on the concentration of votes; 02. the interaction between the percentage of incumbents in a given dispute and in a coalition has a significant and positive effect on the concentration of votes.
Paper presented in the Midwest Political Science Association Conference, 2013
The aim of this paper is examine the importance of socioeconomic and political contexts of the places where voters live in their choice for the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies. I analyze five elections – 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2010 – in four random effects models to test the hypothesis that the incumbent parties in the federal executives – PT and PSDB – and their main allies – PFL/DEM and PMDB -receive more votes from the electorate in poorer, less developed municipalities with lower levels of education and urbanization. However these bases will change once these parties are in opposition. More generally, they will receive more votes in richer, more developed municipalities with higher levels if urbanization and education. The results partially confirm the hypothesis for the incumbent parties but not for their coalition partners. Finally, the models show the strong impact that the composition of the state government has on the vote for the Chamber.
Corruption was a central theme of the Brazilian 2006 elections, both at the Executive and Legislative levels. According to our data, more than 100 Federal Deputies, or 1 in 5 in the 52nd Legislature (2003-2007) were mentioned by the media in relation to some scandal. The focus of this paper is how Federal Deputies involved in corruption scandals fare during elections. Do voters punish allegedly corrupt politicians? We use a dataset of Brazilian Federal Deputies legislative and electoral performance to test how involvement in corruption is related to career choice and reelection success in the 2006 elections. La corrupción fue un tema central de las elecciones brasileñas del 2006, tanto en la rama Ejecutiva como en la Legislativa. Según nuestros datos, más de cien del los Delegados Federales, o un quinto de la quincuagésima segunda Sesión Legislativa (2003-2007), fueron relacionados por los medios con algún escándalo. Este artículo se enfoca en cómo es la suerte de los Delegados Federales involucrados en escándalos de corrupción. ¿Acaso los votantes castigan a los políticos supuestamente corruptos? Utilizamos un conjunto de datos acerca del desempeño legislativo y electoral de los Delegados Federales Brasileños para estudiar cómo el estar involucrado en corrupción se relaciona con decisiones de carrera y con el éxito en ser reelegidos.
2020
Nenhuma trajetória é construída sozinha. Inúmeras pessoas passaram em minha vida e deixaram a sua parcela de contribuição para esta conquista. De forma geral, agradeço a todos! Ainda assim, não posso deixar de citar as pessoas mais importantes para esta conquista. Em primeiro lugar, agradeço à minha mãe, Marilene, e ao meu pai, Francisco, pela vida e por ser parte fundamental para a formação do ser humano que sou hoje. Esta, e nenhuma outra conquista, seria possível sem vocês. Aos meus irmãos, Anderson e Jessica, agradeço pelo apoio e por todas as incontáveis experiências e anos de vida crescendo e aprendendo juntos. Agradeço às minhas pequenas sobrinhas, Ana Beatriz e Ana Júlia: vocês são a alegria da família. À minha namorada, Camila, agradeço por estar ao meu lado nestes últimos meses, e por sempre me motivar e apoiar neste final de trajetória. A realização deste trabalho foi possível, em grande medida, graças a fundamental contribuição de excelentes professores e pesquisadores durante a minha formação. Em especial, agradeço à minha orientadora, Fernanda Estevan, por todas as conversas e incentivos. Este trabalho ficou significativamente melhor devido a suas milhares de sugestões, ao seu acompanhamento próximo e a sua orientação. Ao meu orientador, Enlinson Mattos, agradeço pelas sugestões de melhoria deste trabalho, e pela disponibilidade em me auxiliar em seguir uma nova etapa após o mestrado. Ao professor Paulo Arvate, agradeço por aceitar participar de minha banca e pelos comentários e sugestões durante a defesa. Algumas instituições foram decisivas em minha vida. Em primeiro lugar, agradeço ao ISMART que, inicialmente via Colégio Objetivo, me possibilitou obter uma educação de qualidade e acompanhou meu desenvolvimento desde os últimos 12 anos. Agradeço à FEA e à USP por propiciar que eu iniciasse a minha formação enquanto economista e obtivesse o grau de bacharel. Agradeço à FGV por propiciar que eu me formasse enquanto mestre em economia. Inclusive, agradeço a todos os amigos que fiz, e às pessoas que conheci, via essas instituições. Durante o mestrado tive a honra de conviver com excelentes amigos, cuja amizade desejo cultivar para os anos que vierem. Em especial, agradeço a Antonio León, Kelly Gonçalves, Murilo Cardoso, Angélica Brum, Luiz Felipe Fontes, Otávio Conceição, Matheus Anthony, Bruno Tebaldi e Renan Alves. Levo comigo as milhares de conversas, almoços, cafés e risadas. Por fim, agradeço à Mahvish Shaukat que gentilmente me respondeu e esclareceu, via e-mail, algumas dúvidas sobre o seu paper. Enfim, vocês acreditarem em meu potencial é o que fez total diferença. A todos vocês, meus sinceros agradecimentos! ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the causal impact of electoral competition on political selection, campaign funds, and performance in office. We use, for investigation, the 2012 Brazilian mayoral elections. To overcome potential endogeneity concerns and identify the causal effect, we adopt the empirical strategy proposed by Shaukat (2019), which adapts the traditional shift-share instrument to the electoral competition context. This approach explores aggregate changes in party popularity over time (at the national and state levels) to capture exogenous variation in electoral competition at the municipal level in Brazil. As main results, first, we find evidence that electoral competition favors the selection and election of older politicians, the election of women, of less wealthy candidates, and without any type of electoral incumbency (i.e., politicians who do not occupy, at the time of candidacy, an elective office). We consider these results a beneficial effect since electoral competition increases the electoral success of politician profiles underrepresented in the Brazilian political scenario. Second, we find robust evidence that electoral competition increases campaign financing and expenditures. We explain these results using the particular relevance of some channels, and we interpret them as a strategic allocation of resources by political agents. Finally, we find evidence that electoral competition increases the performance of the mayor in office, as measured by municipal performance indicators in terms of investment, education, personnel expenditures, and liquidity. Overall, our results highlight the relevance of electoral incentives in the behavior of political agents in Brazil.
Legislator success in Brazilian Chamber of Deputies: institutional and political effects.
LASA2019 Congress Papers, 2019
Today it is well documented how Brazilian presidents gather political support from the Congress and have their bills approved. However, little is known about the factors that help Brazilian congressmen take a bill forward and several times approved in a busy legislative environment. Taking into account that proposal and approval of bills are important for a legislator career, understanding who are the congressmen more prone to have legislative success matters. In this paper it is examined the approval of legislators' bills in Brazilian Chamber of Deputies considering the effects of policy substance, partisan power resources and position towards government-if a deputy belongs to government coalition or to opposition. The analysis of policy substance seeks to measure the probability of certain types of policy areas to be approved above others. In turn, partisan power resources focus on the impact of the amount of party seats on promoting a legislator legislative success. Finally, position towards government looks forward to observe if belonging to government coalition increases the chances of success. It is analyzed bills presented by deputies during the 53th Legislature (2007-2010), a period characterized by the largest legislator legislative production in Brazil post-1988.
Electoral accountability and governors´ election in Brazil, 1990-2006
2010
The scholarship on the accountability of local incumbents usually focuses on two main hypotheses. The first, the sub-national vote, argues that voters rely mostly on information on incumbent’s local performance. The second hypothesis, the referendum vote, argues that is voters ́ decision give more weight to national aspects, particularly their assessment of the president’s performance. In this last case, the electoral fate of local incumbents would be determined by aspects outside their reach. In this paper we test those two hypotheses for the Brazilian case using a data set on 131 governor’s elections for the 27 Brazilian states between 1990 and 2006. To our knowledge, this is the first time these two hypotheses are tested in a multiparty context, since previous studies focused mainly on two-party systems. Our results show no support for the referendum hypothesis, as national variables did not have any effect on the probability of governors ́ reelection. Among the local variables, ...