ANALYSIS OF HEAD INJURIES USING A BAYESIAN VECTOR GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MODEL (original) (raw)
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Investigating population level trends in head injuries amongst child cyclists in the UK
Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2005
Case control studies suggest that cycle helmets offer their wearers protection from injury in the event of an accident. Nevertheless, encouragement and even compulsion of cycle helmet wearing has been controversial. This paper will re-examine another potential source of evidence for the role of cycle helmets. Administrative datasets are attractive because of their availability, but require careful analysis. The results presented here are obtained from analysing such data with an appropriate form of generalised additive model. Whilst helmet wearing surveys in the UK suggest strongly divergent trends in wearing rates between male and female children, there is little evidence from “Hospital Episode Statistics” to indicate similarly divergent trends in terms of head injury. Conversely, it can be confirmed that head injuries are falling faster among cyclists than pedestrians. Although case control studies suggest cycle helmets are not effective in reducing overall injuries, it is worth noting an increase in the proportion of male child cyclists reported by the police as being killed or seriously injured in road collisions. It might be tempting to use these results to suggest that helmets are not effective in reducing head injury at the population level. Whilst the careful analysis of population level data presented here is clearly important, this paper will discuss the reasons why population and individual level analyses of cycle helmets might be different and consider some of the difficulties in assigning cause and effect with imperfect observational data.
Sturdy Inference: A Bayesian Analysis of U.S. Motorcycle Helmet Laws
Journal of the Transportation Research Forum
Motorcycle related fatalities continue to be a major concern for public health officials, economists, and policy makers interested in such matters. In 2006, 3% of all motor vehicles registered in the United States were 2-3 wheelers (motorcycle type vehicles), while riders of these vehicles accounted for 11% of vehicle related deaths. Such a disproportionate number of fatalities associated with motorcycles is certainly grounds for concern.Most studies of motorcycle fatalities attribute deaths to the avoidance of wearing helmets and the lack of helmet laws, speed, and alcohol usage. This study makes use of a rich panel data set for the period 1980 to 2010 by state and the District of Columbia to examine these factors and others. It is the first study to differentiate between the effects of universal and partial helmet laws on motorcycle fatalities. It also accounts for the effects of cell phone use, alcohol consumption, and suicidal propensities on these crashes after adjusting for a ...
Motorcycle helmet use and the risk of head, neck, and fatal injury: Revisiting the Hurt Study
Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2016
Most studies find strong evidence that motorcycle helmets protect against injury, but a small number of controversial studies have reported a positive association between helmet use and neck injury. The most commonly cited paper is that of Goldstein (1986). Goldstein obtained and reanalyzed data from the Hurt Study, a prospective, on-scene investigation of 900 motorcycle collisions in the city of Los Angeles. The Goldstein results have been adopted by the anti-helmet community to justify resistance to compulsory motorcycle helmet use on the grounds that helmets may cause neck injuries due to their mass. In the current study, we replicated Goldstein's models to understand how he obtained his unexpected results, and we then applied modern statistical methods to estimate the association of motorcycle helmet use with head injury, fatal injury, and neck injury among collision-involved motorcyclists. We found Goldstein's analysis to be critically flawed due to improper data imputation, modeling of extremely sparse data, and misinterpretation of model coefficients. Our new analysis showed that motorcycle helmets were associated with markedly lower risk of head injury (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.31-0.52) and fatal injury (RR 0.44, 95% CI 0.26-0.74) and with moderately lower but statistically significant risk of neck injury (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.40-0.99), after controlling for multiple potential confounders.
Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2017
This study aims at contributing to the literature on pedestrian and bicyclist safety by building on the conventional count regression models to explore exogenous factors affecting pedestrian and bicyclist crashes at the macroscopic level. In the traditional count models, effects of exogenous factors on non-motorist crashes were investigated directly. However, the vulnerable road users' crashes are collisions between vehicles and nonmotorists. Thus, the exogenous factors can affect the non-motorist crashes through the non-motorists and vehicle drivers. To accommodate for the potentially different impact of exogenous factors we convert the non-motorist crash counts as the product of total crash counts and proportion of non-motorist crashes and formulate a joint model of the negative binomial (NB) model and the logit model to deal with the two parts, respectively. The formulated joint model is estimated using non-motorist crash data based on the Traffic Analysis Districts (TADs) in Florida. Meanwhile, the traditional NB model is also estimated and compared with the joint model. The result indicates that the joint model provides better data fit and can identify more significant variables. Subsequently, a novel joint screening method is suggested based on the proposed model to identify hot zones for non-motorist crashes. The hot zones of non-motorist crashes are identified and divided into three types: hot zones with more dangerous driving environment only, hot zones with more hazardous walking and cycling conditions only, and hot zones with both. It is expected that the joint model and screening method can help decision makers, transportation officials, and community planners to make more efficient treatments to proactively improve pedestrian and bicyclist safety.
2013
Cycle helmets have continued to increase in popularity since their introduction half a century ago. Many studies indicate that overall, head injury can be significantly reduced by wearing them. This study was conducted using two distinct sets of real-world cycling collision data from Ireland, namely cases involving police collision reports and cases involving admission to a hospital emergency department. The analyses sought to simulate and analyse the protective performance of cycle helmets in such collision scenarios, by comparing the Head Injury Criterion score and peak head accelerations, both linear and angular. Cycle collisions were simulated using the specialised commercial software MADYMO. From the simulation results, these key metrics were compared between the same-scenario helmeted and unhelmeted cyclist models. Results showed that the inclusion of bicycle helmets reduced linear accelerations very significantly, but also increased angular accelerations significantly compare...
Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2014
This study aimed to estimate the association of cyclists' age and sex with the risk of being involved in a crash with and without adjustment for their amount of exposure. We used the distribution of the entire population and cyclists (total and non-responsible) involved in road crashes in Spain between 1993 and 2009 held by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics and the Spanish General Traffic Directorate to calculate rates of exposure and involvement in a crash. Males aged 45-49 years were used as the reference category to obtain exposure rate ratios (ERR) and unadjusted crash rate ratios (URR). We then used these values in decomposition analysis to calculate crash rate ratios adjusted for exposure (ARR). The pattern of ARR was substantially different from URR. In both sexes the highest values were observed in the youngest age groups, and the values decreased as age increased except for a slight increase in the oldest age groups. In males, a slight increase in the lowest and highest age categories was observed for crashes resulting in severe injury or death, and a decrease was observed for the youngest cyclists who were wearing a helmet. The large differences between age and sex groups in the risk of involvement in a cycling crash are strongly dependent on differences in their exposure rates. Taking exposure rates into account, cyclists younger than 30 years and older than 65 years of age had the highest risk of being involved in a crash.
Statistical Errors in Anti-Helmet Arguments
Bicycle helmets are designed to mitigate head injury during a collision. In the early 1990's, Australia and New Zealand mandated helmet wearing for cyclists in an effort to increase helmet usage. Since that time, helmets and helmet laws have been portrayed as a failure in the peer-reviewed literature, by the media and various advocacy groups. Many of these criticisms claim helmets are ineffective, helmet laws deter cycling, helmet wearing increases the risk of an accident, no evidence helmet laws reduce head injuries at a population level, and helmet laws result in a net health reduction. This paper will demonstrate the data and methods used to support these arguments are statistically flawed.
Motorcycle Fatalities Revisited: A Classical and Bayesian Analysis
2016
This paper examines the determinants of motorcycle fatality rates using panel data and classical and Bayesian statistical methods. It focuses on five variables in particular: universal helmet laws, partial helmet laws, cell phone use, suicidal propensities, and beer consumption. Universal helmet laws are found to be favored over partial helmet laws to reduce motorcycle fatality rates while cell phone use is found to be a significant contributor to motorcycle fatalities as is alcohol consumption. Suicidal propensities are also shown to contribute to these accidents.
Using bayesian model to estimate the cost of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013
International Journal of Critical Illness and Injury Science, 2017
Background and Aim: A significant social and economic burden inflicts by road traffic injuries (RTIs). We aimed to use Bayesian model, to present the precise method, and to estimate the cost of RTIs in Iran in 2013. Materials and Methods: In a cross-sectional study on costs resulting from traffic injuries, 846 people per road user were randomly selected and investigated during 3 months (1 st September-1 st December) in 2013. The research questionnaire was prepared based on the standard for willingness to pay (WTP) method considering perceived risks, especially in Iran. Data were collected along with four scenarios for occupants, pedestrians, vehicle drivers, and motorcyclists. Inclusion criterion was having at least high school education and being in the age range of 18-65 years old; risk perception was an important factor to the study and measured by visual tool. Samples who did not have risk perception were excluded from the study. Main outcome measure was cost estimation of traffic injuries using WTP method.