Fiscal condition of the public sector in Brazil: an analysis with an emphasis on the states in the North and Northeast regions of the country and on financing for rural development (original) (raw)

Public debt in Brazil: Sustentability and its implications

EconomiA, 2013

This paper tests sustainability of Brazilian public debt in the period 1991 to 2009, and analyzes implications of requiring that the Brazilian fiscal policy be primarily committed to the sustainability of the public debt. The retrospective analysis utilizes a set of unit root tests and avoids some of the criticism leveled at previous studies by using data which has not previously been used for this purpose, and concludes that the public debt was sustainable in the period we consider. The prospective analysis is based on the DSGE model proposed by Jodi Galí et al. calibrated for Brazil, using the conclusions of the retrospective analysis for the fiscal parameters. The scenarios produced with the help of the model show that maintaining the sustainability of the public debt is consistent with the monetary policy of inflation targeting. We also conclude that it is possible to reduce interest rates to levels below those prevalent at the end of 2010 simultaneously maintaining the stability of the trajectory of the public debt.

Balancing the budget with implicit domestic default: the case of Brazil in the 1980s

World Development, 1994

This paper examines the breakdown of the Brazilian government's budget-balance mechanism, which began in the mid-198Qs. The Brariliaa government became unable to balance its budget through tax increases or expenditure decreases. Evidence presented in this paper suggests that the govemmnt began to rely on unanuIMxuIctd rcchrctions in the indexed inflation compensation on its debt. These reductions can be thought of as an implicit default on domestically held debt While the "temporary asset freeze" of the March 1990 Collor plan war a highly publicized instance of such a default, it was not the fust. tions for Brazil. Is iudexation a good policy? What *Grants from the University of Miami Business School Development Program, the Universidade de Sgo Paulo, and the North-South Center have supported this research. Thanks go to Jdm Devcreux,

Public financing in Brazil: a neo-chartalist approach to the "fiscal crisis" of 2015 and 2016

1st International European Modern Monetary Theory conference, 2019

This article questions the conventional wisdom that argues the existence of a fiscal crisis in Brazil since 2014 and that fiscal consolidation would then be inevitable. Neo-chartalist authors aligned with Modern Money Theory (MMT) show there is no restriction to the financing of public debt in the context of sovereign currencies, a thesis proven correct by studies on the Brazilian economic institutions. The article shows how the relations established between the National Treasury and the Central Bank in money markets leads to unlimited demand for public debt securities. Empirical data shows substantial expansions in the National Treasury Central Account balance and an improvement on debt profile in the period, which was financed with relative ease.

Policy Mix, Public Debt Management, and Fiscal Rules: Lessons from the 2002 Brazilian Crisis

Policy Research Working Papers, 2005

Despite significant progress in economic reform throughout the 1990s and an exemplary development of the policymaking framework in the second part of the decade, Brazil suffered a major public debt and currency crisis in 2002. Though the political origin of the uncertainty cannot be ignored, the paper identifies other sources of uncertainty emanating from the policymaking framework: fiscal policy was not responsive to the shocks, public debt instruments were used with several objectives to stabilize the currency and lengthen maturity, and there was inadequate supervision of agents holding public debt. Most of the flaws have been fixed following the crisis: the primary fiscal balance has been increased, sending the signal that it is a flexible instrument that will be used to ensure commitment of the sovereign to honor its obligations; the central bank formally transferred to the Treasury the remaining debt-issuance functions, facilitating a more adequate balancing of different risks involved in debt management; and mutual funds' public debt holdings are better regulated, ensuring that end-investors have the proper information to assess the risk of the institutions in which they invest.

Understanding the evolution of the fiscal situation of the Brazilian states; 2006–2015

EconomiA

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The macroeconomics of the Brazilian external debt

1989

Brazil has been a central participant in the developing country debt experience. In quantitative terms, Brazil's $1 10 billion debt accounts for some 10 percent of the total debt of developing countries.'In qualitative terms, Brazil's strategic use of debt in the 1970s and ...

THE PUBLIC DEBT OF THE STATE OF RIO DE JANEIRO AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS (Atena Editora)

THE PUBLIC DEBT OF THE STATE OF RIO DE JANEIRO AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS (Atena Editora), 2023

This work is a study to demonstrate the growth of the Brazilian public debt, and how the indebtedness of the State of Rio de Janeiro contributed to the worsening of the financial crisis. For this, we sought to analyze the financial statements for the last 10 years, the evolution of the public debt and its upward trajectory until the year 2015. The research explains the main short and long-term debts, the budgetary execution of the revenue and expenditure, as well as the factors that contributed to the State's indebtedness. The work also approaches the decree and the law edited with the objective of containing the financial crisis. Thus, through analytical bibliographical research, the financial statements of the entity were examined, as well as all the budgetary and financial execution of the State of Rio de Janeiro during the last 10 years, as well as the evolution of the indebtedness in this period.