“Economic transformation and democratization in the Balkans”, in: G. Pridham and T. Gallagher (eds.) Experimenting with Democracy: Regime Change in the Balkans, London: Routledge, pp. 132-51. (original) (raw)

A central question in the study of democratisation has been the relationship between the level of economic development and the level of support for democratic institutions. In a classic work, Lipset (1959) argued that the more prosperous a nation is, the more likely that it will be able to sustain democracy. Reviewing the extensive literature since the publication of Lipset's work, Diamond (19XX) finds substantial support for this proposition, but highlights the importance of a set of intermediary factors which, supported by economic development, lead directly to democratisation. These intermediary factors include improvements in education which lead to and support the development of a democratic political culture; the internationalisation of elites which exposes them to western democratic values and beliefs; and improved living standards which increase the time horizon for change and induces a more gradualist democratic approach to politics. In addition a key role was played in Lipset's theory by the assumption that economic development would be associated with a reduction in the economic role of the state. This would further increase the chances for democracy through the growth of a middle class with interests independent of the state; through a reduction in clientalistic relations, nepotism, and corruption, as income earning opportunities outside the state become more abundant; and through the development of civil society in which voluntary and intermediary associations play an increasing role and through which a pluralistic competition of interests develops. In societies in which the role of the state does diminish as economic development takes place, this virtuous relationship may be interrupted. In the extreme, in what Diamond refers to as "statist" societies in which the state plays an important role in economic affairs, democracy may be undermined as individuals seek to manipulate state resources in order to enhance their personal wealth.