Weapons of Mass Disruption (original) (raw)
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Military defections in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria
The scientific literature indicates that there are many complex variables that determined whether the militaries in the Arab Spring turned against their regimes or not. In this paper I focus on three variables that the scientific literature highlights as the most important. These are: (1) organising and structuring of the militaries; (2) identity differences between the military and the general population; and (3) the type and extent of civilian demonstrations. Through a theoretical part, these variables examined in order to create a comprehensive overview, which ends in the creation of three different hypotheses. I illustrate these various dynamics through an analysis of four different countries that experienced demonstrations: Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria. I finally argue that Tunisia and Egypt were two similar cases, where both militaries sided with the protesters because of structural factors and large peaceful demonstrations. Libya's military split in two because of structure, identity differences in tribe affiliation within the military, as well as the demonstrations became violent. Syria's military has broken into several parts due to identity differences within the military, extensive coup-proofing of Assad, which goes under organisation and structure, and that the demonstrations were violent. In the conclusion I elaborate the outcome in the various cases.
On 15 January 2011, there occurred an unprecedented event in the annals of Arab states: for the first time, the masses revolted and ousted a local ruler. The Tunisian masses took to the streets and stayed there until Zayn al-‘Ā bidın̄ bin ‘Alı̄ stepped down, or, rather, fled the country. Ten days after Bin ‘Alı’̄ s fall, the masses filled the thoroughfares of Egypt’s major cities and demanded the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak, who had ruled Egypt for 30 years. On 12 February 2011, after 18 days of stormy protests, Vice President Omar Suleiman announced Mubarak’s resignation and announced that Mubarak’s powers had been transferred to him. This paper follows the Egyptian saga in the context of the new phenomenon taking place across the Arab world – citizen revolts. It does not address the protests by Islamic opposition groups, especially the Muslim Brotherhood; instead, it offers case studies in social, economic, and ideological (one might even say, secular) contexts, not religious ones. It surveys the recent epoch-making events in the Nile region and compares them with violent demonstrations and riots in its past. The paper’s importance lies in its examination of the role of the armed forces in each case and primarily in its investigation of the assertion that the broad-based uprisings seem to have written finis to the military’s pivotal role in Arab states.