Suicide and meteorological factors in São Paulo, Brazil, 1996-2011: a time series analysis (original) (raw)
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Suicides by hanging and its association with meteorological conditions in São Paulo
Journal of forensic and legal medicine, 2018
The main goal of this study was to evaluate the association between daily cases of hanging suicides and meteorological conditions in São Paulo, Brazil. We considered a retrospective observational study based on the analysis of all necroscopic medical-expert reports available in digital form from the central unit of the Instituto Médico Legal (Medical Legal Institute) of São Paulo between July 1, 2006 and June 31, 2007. The meteorological variables were combined via Principal Components Analysis. In order to explain their association with the frequency of suicides, Poisson regression models were employed. The analysis suggests that hotter and brighter days are associated with higher incidence of hanging suicides.
Weather and Suicide: A Decade Analysis in the Five Largest Capital Cities of Colombia
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2018
Historically, seasonal variations in suicide rates were thought to be associated with changes in weather. Most of this evidence however, is based on studies that were conducted in developed countries that are located outside the tropics. As such, it is necessary to examine this association in developing countries, such as Colombia, which do not experience marked seasons. In addition, it is important to adjust for the effect of holidays when analyzing this association as they have been reported to be a relevant confounding factor. Our objective was to estimate the association between daily suicide incidence among men and women in five major Colombian cities (Bogotá, Medellin, Cali, Barranquilla, and Bucaramanga) and daily temperature and rainfall. For this purpose, we conducted a multi-city, multi-temporal ecological study from 2005 to 2015, using data from the suicide mortality registries (provided by the National Administrative Department of Statistics). Daily measurements of the two weather variables were obtained from the official historical registry of the meteorological station at each city airport. We used these data to estimate conditional Poisson models for daily suicide counts, stratifying by sex and adjusting for holidays. Although we found that none of the weather variable estimators could reject the null hypothesis, we uncovered an association between suicide incidence and long weekends in the total suicide model (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-1.23). We found no evidence of association between weather variables and suicide in Colombia. Our study is based on daily observations and it provides evidence of absence of this association in a tropical country that does not experience marked seasons.
Seasonality of suicide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1979-2003
Revista Brasileira de Psiquiatria, 2009
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide seasonality in the city of São Paulo within an urban area and tropical zone. METHOD: Suicides were evaluated using the chi-square test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) by comparing monthly, quarterly and half-yearly variations, differentiating by gender. Analyses of time series were carried out using the autocorrelation function and periodogram, while the significance level for seasonality was confirmed with the Fisher's test. RESULTS: The suicides of the period between 1979 and 2003 numbered 11,434 cases. Differences were observed in suicides occurring in Spring and Autumn for the total sample (ANOVA: p-value = 0.01), and in the male sample (ANOVA: p-value = 0.02). For the analysis of time series, seasonality was significant only for the period of 7 months in the male sample (p-value = 0.04). DISCUSSION: In this study, no significant seasonal differences were observed in the occurrences of suicides, with the exception of the male sample. The diffe...
2016
Method Suicide mortality data for Baja California Sur (BCS) was obtained for the years 1985-2008 from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI). The selected codes were: E950-E959 (ICD-9) and X60-X84, Y87.0 (ICD-10) for BCS. The BCS weather data used was the maximum temperature from 1985 to 2008, obtained from the Extractor Rápido de Información Climatológica (ERIC III). Lineal and quadratic models were used to assess the annual rate changes of suicide and generalized lineal models (GLM) to assess the effect of the climatological variables to the suicide rate. The p≤0.05 was considered significant.
The meteorological factors associated with suicide
Collegium antropologicum, 2010
Looking through the history, people have always been associating suicide with weather conditions, trying to understand and identify the relationship between meteorological factors and suicide. The aim of this study was to determine and analyze the meteorological conditions in the time of attempted or committed suicides, and examine the possible link between the changes of meteorological factors and the frequency of suicidal behavior. Retrospective study of pairs covered the period from January 2003 to January 2006. Examinees included in the study were persons who committed or attempted suicide in the region of Mostar. Meteorological factors included the days of attempts or committing of suicide, with meteorological factors of the day immediately prior to the days of attempts or committing of suicide, as well as with average monthly values of meteorological factors. Meteorological factors of the days with suicidal behavior were similar to the day prior to the days with suicidal behav...
Suicide rates and the association with climate: A population-based study
Journal of Affective Disorders, 2006
Background: Seasonality of suicide has been noted in several studies. A spring peak of suicide was observed, and associations between various climatic parameters and suicide have been suggested. This study sets out to verify seasonal patterns of suicide rates and to explore the association with climate in Taiwan. Method: The study used a nationwide mortality database in Taiwan from January 1997 to December 2003. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to examine the presence of seasonality and the association of climate with suicidal death. Results: Seasonality with a spring peak was evident in suicidal death regardless of gender or age. Ambient temperature was positively associated with suicide after adjustment for trend and seasonality. Limitations: Misclassification and underreporting of suicidal death in the registry system might confound the results. Ecological fallacies might exist. Conclusions: The seasonal effect on suicide is significant in Taiwan. Suicide rates may be influenced by ambient temperatures. The findings are of research interest for future studies regarding mechanisms of suicidal behavior, and also of practical interest for better timing of suicide interventions and effective preventive strategies.
Seasonal Associations between Weather Conditions and Suicide--Evidence against a Classic Hypothesis
American Journal of Epidemiology, 2006
Psychiatrists, epidemiologists, and sociologists have debated the existence of an association between weather conditions and suicide seasonality since the preliminary statistical investigations in the 19th century. Provided that the effect of weather conditions on suicide operates via a dose-response-like mechanism, time-series (Box-Jenkins) analysis permits an indirect test of the hypothesis that temperature or other weather variables promote higher suicide frequencies in late spring and early summer months. The authors modeled monthly data on suicide and climatic conditions (i.e., temperature, sunshine, and precipitation data) in Switzerland. Cross-correlations between the filtered (prewhitened) residual series were calculated for the period 1881-2000, for consecutive 30-year periods, for different suicide methods, and-with regard to the seasonality hypothesis-for series relying on moving 1-and 3-month frames. Positive cross-correlations emerged between suicide and temperature data for the whole time series, as well as in all consecutive 30-year periods. However, cross-correlations of data series based on moving frames showed a minor peak in associations for summer frames and a major peak in associations for winter frames, the latter reflecting suicides performed mainly outdoors (being run over by a train and jumping from high places). The results represent a novel minor effect in seasonality of suicide, which is hardly compatible with the hypothesized role of temperature in suicide seasonality. models, statistical; seasons; suicide; weather Abbreviation: ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average. * ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average. y Model (0,0,2)(0,1,2) 12 with similar outcome. z Model (0,0,1)(0,1,1) 12 with similar outcome.
Background: Significant changes in the values of temperature, pressure, humidity and cloud cover can participate in the human behaviour including the mood disorders (especially depression and bipolar disorders) which can trigger suicidal ideas or their realization. The aim of this study is to estimate the connection between the aforesaid weather changes and a committed suicide alongwith the suicide attempts.Subjects and methods: We conducted a retrospective study in Osijek - Baranja County in the period from 2000 to 2011.Meteorological, demographic and epidemiological analysis was performed on 569 suicides and 478 suicide attempts (total of 1047 events). We analyzed the values of the above-mentioned meteorological parameters at the exact time when the event had happened, as well as three days before the event and one day after the event, comparing it with the monthly mean values.Results: The results showed that the changes of temperature and pressure were significantly related with ...
Suicide seasonality: Evidence of 11-year cyclic oscillations in Brazilian suicide rates
Several researchers have studied suicide seasonality through different statistical approaches. In the present research, we performed a detailed statistical study of Brazilian suicide data registered from 1980 to 2010 using a new approach known as Threshold Bias Model (TBM). Eleven-year cyclic oscillations were observed in suicide rates that, at first sight, appear as being negatively correlated with the cycles of solar activity. Such oscillations are more noticeable for males although they also have been observed in the female rates.
Analysis of Climate Factors on Suicide Cases in East Java Province Indonesia in 2015-2018
Research Square (Research Square), 2023
Background Suicide is a health problem in developing countries like Indonesia, especially in East Java Province. Some reports suggest that there is a link between suicide and climatic conditions. This implies evidence that climatic conditions tend to in uence suicide rates. So far, little is known about the correlation between suicide and climatic conditions, especially in Indonesia, which has two seasons. Methods The research aims to determine the relationship between rainfall, air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed on the incidence of suicides in East Java Province. This study uses a time trend ecological study design where the unit of analysis is months and years for four years. Univariate analysis using the