Impact of El Nino, Iod, and Monsoon in Determining the Possibility of Extreme Rainfall Over Several Region at West Java (original) (raw)
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Journal of Physics: Conference Series
The meteorological surface parameter over the Maritime Continent (MC), especially rainfall anomalies are very important to be investigated due to their impacts on the hydrometeorological hazards phenomena. Although, this region is effected by the Monsoon system, but another phenomena called as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño are suspected has a great effects in controlling the rainfall anomalies too. In this present study, we investigated the upcoming of IOD and El-Niño (represented as SST Nino 3.4) index, especially from October 2018 to February 2019. According to the prediction derived from POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia) model, Australia, that is issued by September 8, 2018, we found that those indexes (IOD and SST Nino 3.4) are located "near" the normal (neutral) phase condition. It means that Monsoon will become a predominant peak oscillation during that period, although by assuming the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) also located at "near" normal condition. By using the IOD, SST Nino 3.4, and the CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station) monthly rainfall data for period of 37 years observation over Java Island, we found that rainy season is already started since December 2017. The transitional season (from rainy to dry season) is started from March to May 2018. The dry season itself is already started since June to August 2018. Basically, we found the second transitional season that is started from September to November 2018. Since, this study is mainly concerned to rainfall anomalies prediction when IOD and El-Nino is located "near" normal (neutral) phase position, we suspect that the early rainy season this year will be started at December 2018, and continue to rainy season at January and February 2019. Those all prediction will be working well by assuming that teleconnection between IOD and El Nino up to February 2019 still located "near" normal phase condition/position.
Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences, 2018
The respective influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Indonesian precipitation were evaluated using monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) for January 1948 to December 2013. Simultaneous correlation between seasonal precipitation anomalies and climate indices for these two types of climate modes revealed that IOD events have a significant correlation with the precipitation over southern Sumatra, Java, southern Kalimantan, the Nusa Tenggara Islands, some parts of Sulawesi and eastern Papua. Meanwhile, ENSO events have a significant correlation with the precipitation over southern Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua. Droughts during the dry season (JJA and SON) typically occur when a positive IOD event simultaneously occurs with an El Niño event associated with anomalous low SST observed in the Indonesian seas and the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Low SST anomalies lead to low-level wind divergence and reduce water vapor in the lower atmosphere, supress atmospheric convection over the Indonesian region and then cause a decrease in precipitation.
Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2019
The Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event for Indonesian rainfall has been investigated for the period from 1950 to 2011. Inter-annual change of IOD and ENSO indices are used to investigate their relationship with Indonesian rainfall. By using the wavelet transform method, we found a positive significant correlation between IOD and Indonesian rainfall on the time scale of nearly 2.5-4 years. Furthermore, the positive significant correlation between ENSO (sea surface temperature anomaly at Niño3.4 area indices) and Indonesian rainfall exists for shorter than 2 years and between 5.5 to 6.5-year time scales.
Journal of Physics: Conference Series
Indonesia Maritime Continent (IMC) is one the most important region at the equator which affected by many atmospheric phenomena, especially Madden-Julian Oscillation and Monsoon. Asian Winter Monsoon causes the increasing of rainfall in several places in Indonesia in December-January-February (DJF), and since MJO related to a propagation of convective cloud, somehow it affects the rainfall variability in equator, especially over Indonesia. Interaction of both phenomena simultaneously bring rainfall is increasing in Indonesia, especially in Western Part of Indonesia. Therefore, a research about the impact of MJO in rainfall especially in Bandung and other cities over Indonesia is important. This study aims to investigate impacts of MJO events on the rainfall variability in Bandung and other cities focusing when Asian Winter Monsoon (December-January-February/DJF) for period of DJF 2002/03-DJF 2012/13 passing over Indonesia. The results show that from 10 MJO events in period DJF 2002/03-DJF 2012/13, the event increased the rainfall continuously in phase 3, phase 4, and phase 5. In phase 3, the increasing happened in every station except Supadio in Pontianak with the total precipitation > 30 mm/day. The condition of rainfall in phase 4 fluctuates in every station, but with the dominant increasing in Equator. In phase 5, the decreasing of rainfall happened in North of the Equator and Equator, while in South of Equator, the rainfall in Cengkareng Station in Jakarta increased about 20% but decreased about-42% in Bandung Station.
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2019
West Java Province is the most vulnerable region to hydro-meteorological disasters (i.e. flood and landslide) in Indonesia. One of the main causes of these disasters is high level of rainfall. There were many global phenomena caused an increase in rainfall level in Indonesia, one of them was the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), especially its negative phase. By using the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), IOD strength or intensity can be determined. Besides, the composite analysis of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST), wind, and rainfall were constructed to examine the dynamics of the negative IOD and its relation to the high rainfall level in West Java. During the negative IOD (nIOD), the significant positive (negative) anomalous SST appeared around May in eastern (western-central) of Indian Ocean. The intensity of anomalous SST in the following months reached its peak in September and accompanied by strong anomalous north-westerly wind. Furthermore, the high SST and anomalous wind increased ...
International Journal of Climatology, 2003
The characteristics of climatic rainfall variability in Indonesia are investigated using a double correlation method. The results are compared with empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated EOF methods. In addition, local and remote responses to sea-surface temperature (SST) are discussed. The results suggest three climatic regions in Indonesia with their distinct characteristics. Region A is located in southern Indonesia from south Sumatera to Timor island, southern Kalimantan, Sulawesi and part of Irian Jaya. Region B is located in northwest Indonesia from northern Sumatra to northwestern Kalimantan. Region C encompasses Maluku and northern Sulawesi. All three regions show both strong annual and, except Region A, semi-annual variability. Region C shows the strongest El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) influence, followed by Region A. In Region B, the ENSO-related signal is suppressed. Except for Region B, there are significant correlations between SST and the rainfall variabilities, indicating a strong possibility for seasonal climate predictions. March to May is the most difficult season to predict the rainfall variability. From June to November, there are significant responses of the rainfall pattern to ENSO in Regions A and C. A strong ENSO influence during this normally dry season (June to September) is hazardous in El Niño years, because the negative response means that higher SST in the NIÑO3 of the Pacific region will lower the rainfall amount over the Indonesian region. Analyses of Indonesian rainfall variability reveal some sensitivities to SST variabilities in adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on the Indonesian rainfall were studied using observational data and the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzing global data. ENSO and IOD variability in the time-periods are detected by using wavelet analysis, and we attempt composite analysis of the rainfall amounts over Indonesia during ENSO and IOD events. The correlation between strong El Niño intensities and several regions in Indonesia with rainfall below normal (< 85%) are high, but when the intensities are weak the correlation becomes low. In this case other phenomena such as IOD can contribute to drought in Indonesia. Our analysis also indicates that during El Niño and positive IOD events, the southeast monsoon (Australian monsoon) over Indonesia is intensified, causing the dry season longer than rainy season.
ENSO and IOD Influence on Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia: Historical and Future Analysis
Agromet , 2024
Indonesia, as a maritime continent, is vulnerable to environmental disasters such as floods and landslides due to extreme rainfall. This study aims to identify changes in the influence of ENSO and IOD on extreme rainfall across Indonesia, specifically during the September-October-November period. We used rainfall and sea surface temperature data from the CMIP6 climate model for the historical period (1985-2014), near-future (2031-2060), and far-future (2061-2090) projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 climate scenarios. The relation between rainfall dan ENSO/IOD was simply defined by linear regression approach. We analyzed the change of influence by comparing the historical and the future condition. The results indicated that the changes in the teleconnection of ENSO and IOD to extreme rainfall in future is consistently negative, except for Java (near-future) and Kalimantan and southern Sumatra (far-future). Our finding revealed that significant changes in the teleconnection varied throughout maritime continent. The maximum change was found in Northern Kalimantan, which reached values of -80 mm/°C due to ENSO and -180 mm/°C due to IOD for near future. These findings highlight the spatial variability in teleconnection changes across Indonesia, underscoring the need for region-specific climate adaptation measures in response to evolving extreme rainfall patterns. K E Y W O R D S climate projection, linear regression, maritime continent, teleconnection, variability
Severe Drought Event in Indonesia Following 2015/16 El Niño/positive Indian Dipole Events
Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2018
During boreal fall and winter 2015/16, Indonesia experienced catastrophic drought event causing many environmental problems. This study explored dynamical evolution of drought event in Indonesia associated with those two climate modes. Based on the Niño3.4 index, the evolution of the El Niño has started in April 2015, reached its peak in January 2016 and terminated in April 2016. Meanwhile, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) revealed that the evolution of positive Indian Ocean Dipole has started in August, reached its peak in September and terminated in November 2015. It is shown that during those two events, Indonesia experienced severe drought in which the precipitation was extremely decreased. During the peak drought condition co-occurring with the dry season, the anomalous of precipitation reached 450 mm/month in September 2015. The peak of the drought was associated with the El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns, in which negative SSTA covered the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean including Indonesia seas. Meanwhile, positive SSTA observed in the western tropical Indian Ocean and Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Characteristics Affecting Rainfall in Western Java, Indonesia
Agromet
Western Java is densely populated with high socio-economic activity. Climate-related disasters can be mitigated with the support of an understanding of systems that produce reliable climate predictions. One of the climate variables included in hydrometeorological disasters is rainfall. The characteristics of rainfall in Western Java cannot be separated from the sea surface temperature (SST) around the area. This study compares the relationship between SST and rainfall with singular value decomposition (SVD) and compares it with Pearson's correlation. SVD Model performance was evaluated using square covariance fraction (SCF) and Pearson correlation. The results showed that rainfall has a higher correlation with SST Anomaly (SSTA) by using SVD, with a correlation of about 0.63 in 6 to 9 months without lag time. Rainfall in western Java was closely related to the positive SSTA anomaly in southern Indonesia, especially the waters south of Java Island, and negative anomalies in other...