Simulating the take up of electric vehicles based on the financial benefit of the vehicle (original) (raw)
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Simple Economics of Electric Vehicle Adoption
Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2012
Increasing energy prices have led to a renewed interest in development of electric vehicles. At the same time, many customers may view an electric vehicle as an inferior alternative to the gasoline-powered car, due to limited range, length of time required to recharge the car, and limited availability of the related infrastructure. Further, commercially available and welltested hybrid vehicle technology provides substantial fuel economy without requiring additional infrastructure investment; moreover, hybrid cars do not suffer from the range issue. This paper offers a first formal model of adoption of electric vehicles. We show that, depending on the values of the model's parameters, a situation can arise where some of the commuters purchase an electric vehicle as their second car, in addition to purchasing a regular gasoline-powered car. At the same time, improvements in fuel economy similar to development of a hybrid vehicle technology can lead to wide-spread adoption of a hybrid vehicle as household's only car. This paper will provide a framework model to analyze the question of electric vehicle adoption, which will be expanded in future research.
Calculates the total cost of ownership across competing vehicle technologies. Uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyse distributions and probabilities of outcomes. Contains a comprehensive assessment across the main vehicle classes and use cases. Indicates that cost efficiency of technology depends on vehicle class and use case. Derives specific policy measures to facilitate electric vehicle diffusion. a b s t r a c t While electric vehicles (EV) can perform better than conventional vehicles from an environmental standpoint, consumers perceive them to be more expensive due to their higher capital cost. Recent studies calculated the total cost of ownership (TCO) to evaluate the complete cost for the consumer, focusing on individual vehicle classes, powertrain technologies, or use cases. To provide a comprehensive overview, we built a probabilistic simulation model broad enough to capture most of a national market. Our findings indicate that the comparative cost efficiency of EV increases with the consumer's driving distance and is higher for small than for large vehicles. However, our sensitivity analysis shows that the exact TCO is subject to the development of vehicle and operating costs and thus uncertain. Although the TCO of electric vehicles may become close to or even lower than that of conventional vehicles by 2025, our findings add evidence to past studies showing that the TCO does not reflect how consumers make their purchase decision today. Based on these findings, we discuss policy measures that educate consumers about the TCO of different vehicle types based on their individual preferences. In addition, measures improving the charging infrastructure and further decreasing battery cost are discussed.
Is the Electric Vehicle an Attractive Option for Customers
As a new technology, electric mobility has the potential to achieve a reduction in CO 2 emissions and contribute to the transition from the current transportation system to a better one, environmentally speaking. The objective of the paper is to aid the necessary decision-making for the adoption and development of electric vehicles in Spain, taking the time horizon of 2020. This will be achieved by building a System Dynamics model for various scenarios that will be used for the analysis and comparison of various dynamic variables, as well as to determine how, and to what extent, they will influence the number of electric vehicles that will run on Spanish roads in the coming years, focusing on the cost variable.
Willingness to Pay for Electric Vehicles and their Attributes
A B S T R A C T This article presents a stated preference study of electric vehicle choice using data from a national survey. We used a choice experiment wherein 3029 respondents were asked to choose between their preferred gasoline vehicle and two electric versions of that preferred vehicle. We estimated a latent class random utility model and used the results to estimate the willingness to pay for five electric vehicle attributes: driving range, charging time, fuel cost saving, pollution reduction, and performance. Driving range, fuel cost savings, and charging time led in importance to respondents. Individuals were willing to pay (wtp) from 35to35 to 35to75 for a mile of added driving range, with incremental wtp per mile decreasing at higher distances. They were willing to pay from 425to425 to 425to3250 per hour reduction in charging time (for a 50 mile charge). Respondents capitalized about 5 years of fuel saving into the purchase price of an electric vehicle. We simulated our model over a range of electric vehicle configurations and found that people with the highest values for electric vehicles were willing to pay a premium above their wtp for a gasoline vehicle that ranged from 6000to6000 to 6000to16,000 for electric vehicles with the most desirable attributes. At the same time, our results suggest that battery cost must drop significantly before electric vehicles will find a mass market without subsidy.
Analysis of Consumer Preferences for Electric Vehicles
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2013
Due to the recent global trend toward stricter restrictions on both greenhouse gases emission and energy consumption, there is an emerging attention on electric vehicles (EVs). It is anticipated that proliferation of EV will be expanded rapidly in the near future. Accordingly, there is a need to analyze the consumer preferences for the EVs as the basic data for developing the relevant industries' strategies in the newly emerging market of EVs or establishing the government policies to popularize EVs. This paper analyzes the consumer preferences for the EV on the basis of the stated preference data from consumers in Korea. A conjoint method and a mixed logit model using the Bayesian approach were used to estimate the preferences of consumers. The stated preference data of the conjoint method is collected through a face-to-face survey conducted in June 2009. The consumer preferences on the key attributes that affect the choices of EV are estimated by a mixed logit model. Marginal willingness to pay is calculated to quantitatively analyze the consumer preferences on the key attributes. The results of this paper show that the consumers have greater preference for EV with swappable battery rather than unswappable battery, and for lump-sum payment rather than installment of the subsidies.
Simulating demand for electric vehicles using revealed preference data
Energy Policy, 2013
We have modelled the market for new cars in Ireland with the aim of quantifying the values placed on a range of observable car characteristics. Mid-sized petrol cars with a manual transmission sell best. Price and perhaps fuel cost are negatively associated with sales, and acceleration and perhaps range are positively associated. Hybrid cars are popular. The values of car characteristics are then used to simulate the likely market shares of three new electrical vehicles. Electrical vehicles tend to be more expensive even after tax breaks and subsidies are applied, but we assume their market shares would benefit from an "environmental" premium similar to those of hybrid cars. The "environmental" premium and the level of subsidies would need to be raised to incredible levels to reach the government target of 10% market penetration of all-electric vehicles.
Simulating Demand for Electrical Vehicles using Revealed Preference Data
We have modelled the market for new cars in Ireland with the aim of quantifying the values placed on a range of observable car characteristics. Mid-sized petrol cars with a manual transmission sell best. Price and perhaps fuel cost are negatively associated with sales, and acceleration and perhaps range are positively associated. Hybrid cars are popular. The values of car characteristics are then used to simulate the likely market shares of three new electrical vehicles. Electrical vehicles tend to be more expensive even after tax breaks and subsidies are applied, but we assume their market shares would benefit from an "environmental" premium similar to those of hybrid cars. The "environmental" premium and the level of subsidies would need to be raised to incredible levels to reach the government target of 10% market penetration of all-electric vehicles.
This paper develops a discrete-continuous model to examine the ownership and usage of electric vehicles in the household. The impact of the ownership and usage of ordinary vehicles is taken into consideration. 5766 stated preference data concerning purchasing electric vehicles in the Chukyo region in Japan are utilized as the research sample. The monthly mileages of ordinary and electric vehicles are measured by a Tobit model, respectively. The ordinary vehicle ownership is measured by an ordered probit model, while the electric vehicle ownership is measured by a binary probit model. Gibbs sampler algorithm is used to estimate four jointed equations. The result shows that there is a substitution effect between two types of vehicles in the ownership and usage. The price, capacity, range and charging rate in the gas station impact both the ownership and usage of electric vehicles. Meanwhile, charging time does not affect either the ownership or usage.
What are the value and implications of two-car households for the electric car?
Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
The major barriers to a more widespread introduction of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) beyond early adopters are the limited range, charging limitations, and costly batteries. An important question is therefore where these effects can be most effectively mitigated. An optimization model is developed to estimate the potential for BEVs to replace one of the conventional cars in two-car households and to viably contribute to the households' driving demand. It uses data from 1 to 3 months of simultaneous GPS logging of the movement patterns for both cars in 64 commuting Swedish two-car households in the Gothenburg region. The results show that, for home charging only, a flexible vehicle use strategy can considerably increase BEV driving and nearly eliminate the unfulfilled driving in the household due to the range and charging limitations with a small battery. The present value of this flexibility is estimated to be on average 6000−6000-6000−7000 but varies considerably between households. With possible near-future prices for BEVs based on mass production cost estimates, this flexibility makes the total cost of ownership (TCO) for a BEV advantageous in almost all the investigated households compared to a conventional vehicle or a hybrid electric vehicle. Because of the ubiquity of multi-car households in developed economies, these families could be ideal candidates for the initial efforts to enhance BEV adoptions beyond the early adopters. The results of this research can inform the design and marketing of cheaper BEVs with small but enough range and contribute to increased knowledge and awareness of the suitability of BEVs in such households.
The Determination of Willingness to Pay for Electrical Vehicles: A Literature Review
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2023
With growing concerns about climate change and an unreliable fuel market, the world is shifting toward an electric-based transportation system, which requires a country to overhaul major infrastructures, establish highly funded research, change government regulations, and adapt available resources in order to transition from a gasoline-based transportation system to an electric one. The study is focused on consumers' determination of willingness to pay for electrical vehicles. By examining consumers' intentions to buy or not buy electric vehicles, researchers are attempting to determine what factors are motivating them to do so which may be range factor, demographic factors, marketing, charging station, government policy. The review studies show the various factors for determination of willingness to pay for electric vehicle.