Attitudes Towards Democracy and the Market in Belarus: What Has Changed and Why It Matters (original) (raw)
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Nationalities papers, 2023
In the wake of the most recent protests in Belarus following the 2020 Presidential Election, it is useful to explore patterns of satisfaction with the political system, confidence in political institutions, and political participation at different points in time during President Lukashenko's rule. We utilize Wave 3 of the World Values Study (WVS) and Wave 7 of the Joint European Values Study (EVS)/WVS to (1) analyze whether citizens' dissatisfaction with the Belarusian government differed between 1996 and 2018, and (2) whether there was a change in political participation during that period. Responses over time suggest that satisfaction with the government and confidence in institutions was not lower in 2018 than it had been in 1996. However, as we discuss in the article, this may be an artifact of authoritarian consolidation and concern/fears about revealing preferences. We also find that the willingness to engage in protests remained more or less the same between these two time periods, especially among those dissatisfied with the political system. These results suggest that once highly dissatisfied citizens took to the streets in 2020, a number of internal and external factors might have triggered a bandwagon effect that pushed other citizens to also join the demonstrations.
Belarus at a Crossroads: Attitudes on Social and Political Change
ZOiS Report, 2021
Following months of mass antigovernment demonstrations in Belarus, the report widens the focus beyond the protesters and takes stock of the views and preferences of Belarusian citizens at a critical moment. A new ZOiS survey conducted in December 2020 among Belarusians aged between 16 and 64 reveals rare insights into the political and social mood across the country, trust in its institutions, the dynamics of the recent political mobilisation, and the domestic and foreign policy preferences of Belarusian citizens. Given the repressive regime in Belarus, it is nearly impossible to gather reliable data on the public mood across the country. This report presents the results of one of the first large surveys of political and social views carried out since the start of the mass protests. In view of safety concerns, the survey was carried out online from 16 to 29 December 2020. Just over 2,000 Belarusians aged between 16 and 64 and living in cities with more than 20,000 inhabitants responded to the questionnaire. The respondents were chosen based on quotas for age, gender, and place of residence to achieve a representative sample for these socio-demographic characteristics. Telephone surveys, which may have allowed for the inclusion of the oldest members of society, are no longer safe to conduct under the circumstances. The quality of the response data would also have been in doubt. The online survey carried out for this report provides one of the first insights since the election into people’s attitudes towards ongoing social and political developments and their visions for the future.
Nationalities Papers, 2021
On August 9, 2020, presidential elections were held in Belarus. Despite blatant electoral fraud and procedural violations, the official results declared Aleksandr Lukashenka reelected for a sixth term. While in the past, even the most obviously fraudulent election results have been followed by an atmosphere of resigned acceptance, this time countless Belarusians took to the streets to contest the results. What made this election different? This analysis of current affairs looks at the 2020 events through the lens of authoritarian consolidation theory, suggesting the unprecedented political mobilization was enabled by erosion in the three pillars of authoritarian stability: repression, cooptation, and legitimation. A majority of the population had been accepting the political status quo out of fear, for social and monetary security provided in exchange for loyalty, or a general understanding that there were no alternatives. Lukashenka did not realize this had largely changed. Nine months later, the foundation of the authoritarian regime is in an even worse shape. The regime's reliance on repression further counteracts the legitimacy of the system. As a result, it seems it will be difficult for the authorities to re-consolidate authoritarianism, at least in the near future, no matter how the 'revolution' unfolds.
Unfinished business: challenges for Belarus on its way to democracy
This article discusses Belarus' transition towards democracy and a market economy, and the difficulties it currently faces as it attempts to pursue these changes. Belarus' historically close relationship with Russia is discussed in detail, as is Russia's continual influence on Belarus's domestic and foreign policy. There are also internal challenges that hinder this transition. The EU strongly supports Belarus in this endeavour, and the authors encourage a proactive EU policy that will further facilitate the country's transition towards achieving a strong democratic tradition and a market economy model. Keywords Belarus Á EU Á Russia Á Democratisation Á Market economy In many respects, Belarus could be called a paradoxical neighbour of the European Union (EU). Contrary to stereotypes, Belarus is not a very poor country. Its GDP per capita in terms of purchasing power parity is comparable to that of Bulgaria and Romania. It has a highly educated population (19% of Belarusians have a university degree) [1]. The EU is its biggest trading partner, taking 44% of Belarusian exports compared to the 32% going to Russia [10, 1]. But despite geographical proximity and level of trade, the EU has not been able to make a significant positive impact on the country, because Belarusian authorities have been very reluctant to accept European standards of human rights and the market economy model. Belarus can therefore be seen as a good case study which reveals both the opportunities and limitations of the EU's capacity to democratise authoritarian A. Łahviniec (&) Á A.
The Prospects for Democracy in Belarus
Problems of Post-Communism
This book will help a wider audience to understand the background to recent events in Belarus and, I hope, will inspire even more people to rally in our support. The book also addresses the crucial question of how the international community can help us in our struggle for democracy, and I am confident Alyaksandr Milinkevich is leader of the United Democratic Forces in Belarus. Foreword 10 11 that the ideas outlined here will contribute to effective strategies in Europe, America and beyond. It is vital that the momentum for democratic change continues to gather strength in Belarus. The struggle is not over. It has just begun.
Twenty Years in the Making: Understanding the Difficulty for Change in Belarus
East European Politics and Societies: and Cultures, 2014
Even after twenty years of Lukashenka’s rule, Belarusians are still having to struggle for democracy. However, there has been a modest growth in the number of protesters during presidential elections and in the pro-EU mood of the Belarusian population. This article analyzes the dynamic of this growth through the prism of social movements literature and such concepts as framing, political opportunity, and mobilizing struc- tures. The argument is that the weakness of the mobilizing structures and framing processes at times when political opportunities presented themselves in Belarus resulted in an absence of large-scale protests and a failure to sustain the development of social movements in the country. at the same time, Belarus cannot be considered as being in a static or retrogressive state since transnational flows characteristic of a glo- balizing world have exposed people to wider flows of information, providing them with counterframes and resulting in a modest growth in the numbers of protesters and a change in the preferences of the Belarusian population.
Prospects for democracy in Belarus
2006
This book will help a wider audience to understand the background to recent events in Belarus and, I hope, will inspire even more people to rally in our support. The book also addresses the crucial question of how the international community can help us in our struggle for democracy, and I am confident Alyaksandr Milinkevich is leader of the United Democratic Forces in Belarus. Foreword 10 11 that the ideas outlined here will contribute to effective strategies in Europe, America and beyond. It is vital that the momentum for democratic change continues to gather strength in Belarus. The struggle is not over. It has just begun.
Making Sense of a Surprise: Perspectives on the 2020 “Belarusian Revolution”
Nationalities Papers
Drawing on three theoretical perspectives—“protest-democracy,” “authoritarian/patronal regime dynamics,” and “contentious politics”—developed in the study of popular protests in post-Soviet electoral autocracies, this article argues, first, that the 2020 postelection mobilization in Belarus was not to be expected for both structural and agency-related reasons. Second, by the summer of 2020, the political opportunity structure had opened up because of contingent choices by individual actors, with Alyaksandr Lukashenka committing several major mistakes, particularly on pandemic (non)control and the administration of the upcoming presidential election, and political newcomers taking on the role of challenging him. After the election, mass mobilization unfolded in two waves triggered by two additional regime mistakes: blatant electoral fraud and excessive repression. These mistakes served as focal points for spontaneous coordination, substituting for the deliberate “engineering” of prot...
More State than Nation: Lukashenko’s Belarus
Journal of International Affairs, 2011
Belarus, a post-Soviet country ruled by Alexander Lukashenko since 1994, is a case of a contemporary regime that reverted to authoritarianism after a brief stint as an independent democracy. While some of the characteristics of the Belarusian system are typical of other nondemocratic regimes around the world and in the post-communist region in particular, others are distinct and set Belarus apart. This article emphasizes the role that social cohesion and national-identity formation play in perpetuating the current system.