Scenarios for Sustainable Development in the Arctic until 2050 (original) (raw)
Related papers
Shaping a Sustainability Strategy for the Arctic
The development of the Arctic is shaped by the opportunities and constraints brought by climate change and technological advances. In the Arctic, warmer climate is expected to affect ecosystems, local communities and infrastructure due to a combination of effects like reduced sea ice and glaciers, thawing permafrost and increased frequency of floods. Less ice and new technologies mean openings to exploit natural resources in the Arctic. Fishing, mining, hydrocarbon extraction and vessel transport activities are likely to increase together with supporting infrastructures. An escalation of economic activities in the Arctic is expected to generate employment opportunities and migration, lead to increasing urbanization and affect the socioeconomic structures of indigenous cultures. To address these issues, there is a need for strategic dialogues on the development of the Arctic. Establishment and foci of such dialogues can be facilitated and formalized through a transboundary strategic environmental assessment, which brings together different visions, objectives and projected development scenarios. Visions and objectives set the scope of environmental policy, management and related human activities, while scenarios outline future development options, and assessments of the scenarios allow for relevant governance, adaptation and monitoring measures. This paper argues for the need of a transboundary strategic environmental assessment process to identify and link critical development issues, enhance participation and capacity among stakeholders, address transboundary concerns, and project and assess relevant development scenarios to reach consensus on a sustainability strategy for the Arctic.
Sustainable Development of the Arctic
Handbook of Research on International Collaboration, Economic Development, and Sustainability in the Arctic
Circumpolar territories and the regions related to the Arctic are those rich with natural resources. They have a high potential for the development of mining and extractive industries. The abundance with resources makes the North increasingly attractive for investments. However, circumpolar territories are characterized by peculiar socio-economic, natural, and climatic conditions which taken together frequently pose a negative impact on people and hinder the exploration opportunities of the Arctic resources. In global, regional, and sub-regional levels, the development of the Arctic is heavily regulated by multilateral international treaties. However, the issues of monitoring and assessment of the sustainable development of the Arctic remain open, which stems from the absence of agreed criteria and indicators for assessing sustainability in the context of national, regional, and scientific approaches. It necessitates the development of a specific methodological approach to the estab...
Arctic environmental governance: challenges of sustainable development
Climatic change, 2024
The Arctic is one of the key regions in relation to global climate change, experiencing radical transformations in environmental governance as well as challenges in terms of its ecological protection. The region is witnessing a number of irreversible climatic shifts, such as melting permafrost, rising sea levels, contamination of the Global Ocean, and changes in the lives of indigenous people. The Arctic is a global hot spot in climate change where international cooperation (scientific, environmental, diplomatic, etc.) should be a priority to overcome existing ecological challenges. This article provides detailed analysis of these issues from cross-disciplinary perspectives, bringing insights from economics, history, anthropology, international relations, and political science from the perspective of literature on environmental regionalism. The article analyzes a selection of heterogeneous actors, many of whom have contradictory rules, norms, and priorities. Analysis of the Arctic through the lens of regional environmental governance aspires to contribute to understanding of the complexity of existing challenges and their potential solutions. This article offers an analysis of the major findings in this topical collection. It contributes to the development of cross-disciplinary approach to the studies of the Artic and outlines a research agenda.
Arctic Futures: Conceptualizations and images of a changing Arctic
Polar Geography, 2012
Peter Arbo; Audun Iversen; Maaike Knol; Toril Ringholm; Gunnar Sander. The future of the Arctic is an issue of increasing concern. During the last five years, a large number of reports, books, and articles have appeared which directly focus on what happens in the Arctic. This article summarizes the findings of an assessment of more than 50 such studies. It aims to identify the basic assumptions, analytical approaches, and future images that characterize current thinking about the Arctic. The article shows that the studies are diverse in thematic scope and background. Different methodologies are applied to envision the future of the Arctic. The future images range from boom to doom, from escalating conflicts to peaceful collaboration. There is a strong agreement that the Arctic is subject to profound change, driven by developments outside the region. Simultaneously, the studies display the many uncertainties that the future of the Arctic is imbued with. This article does not attempt to sketch an alternative version of the future of the Arctic, but rather to highlight how future studies can stimulate debate, create preparedness for change, offer direction, and inform policy.
Arctic Sustainability Transformation 2023
2023
We have entered a new phase in how we consider and seek to govern the fate of the planet in these increasingly unpredictable times. Everywhere in the world, relationships within societies and environments, and between humans and nature, are rapidly changing. The notion of “sustainability transformation” generally captures both the challenges of these disrupted relations and profound solutions to restore them at a global scale, but the Arctic in particular is seen either as a hotspot for hope and possibilities, or as a social and ecological flashpoint under increasing pressure of resource use. What, then, is Arctic sustainability transformation? And what can or does it need to be? This booklet, with contributions from researchers working in the Arctic and with Arctic issues, is a result of our collaboration within the Arctic Five Chair initiative and has come to form a central part of our work of reflecting on Arctic sustainability transformations. The Arctic Five is a collaboration among five Nordic universities, namely Luleå University of Technology and Umeå University in Sweden, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, and the University of Lapland and University of Oulu in Finland. Our work on Arctic transformations is conducted within the Future Challenges in the Nordics program and the research project Peripheral Visions, jointly funded by the Society of Swedish Literature in Finland, Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, the Finnish Cultural Foundation, the Swedish Cultural Foundation in Finland, Stiftelsen Brita Maria Renlunds Minne, and the Kamprad Family Foundation for Entrepreneurship, Research & Charity.
Arctic Sustainability: The Predicament of Energy and Environmental Security
Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2011
Acquisition of Arctic hydrocarbon deposits is a strategic priority of Arctic states and numerous non-Arctic states alike. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the area north of the Arctic Circle holds 13 percent of undiscovered global oil reserves and 30 percent of undiscovered gas reserves, with the expectation that 84 percent of these reserves will be found offshore. Increasing global demand for energy, attributed primarily to population and income growth, alongside technical advancements and financial incentives will likely accelerate the rate at which stakeholders seek out these presumed Arctic hydrocarbons. 1 Several non-state and state actors are concurrently pursuing a variety of means by which to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). From financial incentives and regulatory schemes aimed at increasing the development and instillation of renewable energy sources to persuasive articulations that address the detrimental effects of climate change, these stakeholders recognize that an everlasting thirst for non-renewable resources is a proposition lacking in long-term viability. Whereas large multilateral climate change agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol have been exceedingly difficult to get right, regionally-based networks of like-minded parties have achieved considerable success. Examples of such networks include the Inuit Circumpolar Council and the European Union, both of which have made significant contributions toward addressing the implications of hydrocarbon dependency, albeit from very different perspectives. The Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC)-a group representing the interests of Inuit from Canada, Denmark, Russia, and the United States-now grapples with the balance between preserving their homeland and the potential socioeconomic benefits of hydrocarbon extraction. Instead of focusing solely on extracting energy resources, the European Union (EU) is seeking to reduce region-wide GHG emissions, and is emphasizing * Erica Dingman is an Associate Fellow at the World Policy Institute based in New York City. Her research focuses on a broad spectrum of issues facing the Arctic in respect to climate change. From the geopolitical theater of Arctic stakeholders to interested non-Arctic parties the Arctic is increasingly the focus of government policy and international relations. In this context, Erica's research turns to the interconnection between climate change, hydrocarbon and mineral exploration, and the political participation of Inuit, one of the Arctic's indigenous groups.
Improved weather and marine services (WMS) can have a role to play in the safe and secure development of the Arctic region through either a demand-pull (enhanced by growth in activity) or a supply-push (enhances growth in activity) process. To analyse the nature of the process and the future use and benefits of WMS, a better understanding of possible future developments in the Eurasian Arctic is needed. This report presents six socio-economic scenarios for the Eurasian Arctic by 2040, and a brief synopsis of the implications of each scenario for WMS. The scenarios focus on the development of shipping, resource extraction and tourism industries. The scenario futures, called Wild West, Silicon Valley, Exploited Colony, Shangri La, Conflict Zone and Antarctic, describe the scale and scope of activities in the Eurasian Arctic by 2040. The scenarios have three dimensions: open – closed, public - private and dirty – clean, which describe the political, economic, social, technological and environmental aspects of different futures. The scenarios are based on a literature review, pre-survey, expert workshop and restructuring and analysis of this material. The methodology used for scenario construction is described in detail and may be used widely by other scenario developers.
Twenty-three researchers representing eight natural and social science disciplines and four partner communities -Aklavik, Fort McPherson, Old Crow, and Arctic Village -examine how the combined effects of climate change, oil development, tourism, and government cutbacks might change the sustainability of Arctic villages. We would like to thank our partner communities for joining us on this study. We worked together to incorporate research and local knowledge-based understandings in a common tool -a SYNTHESIS MODEL -to examine the sensitivity of relationships and assess levels of uncertainty. We discussed possible futures, local policies, and the limitations of science and local knowledge in predicting the future. We modeled vegetation changes, caribou population dynamics, local labor markets, mixed subsistence and cash economies, and oil field-caribou interactions.
Arctic sustainability research: toward a new agenda
Polar Geography, 2016
The Arctic is among the world's regions most affected by ongoing and increasing cultural, socioeconomic , environmental and climatic changes. Over the last two decades, scholars, policymakers, extractive industries, local, regional and national governments, intergovernmental forums, and non-governmental organizations have turned their attention to the Arctic, its peoples and resources, and to challenges and benefits of impending transformations. The International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP) has now transpired three times, most recently in April 2015 with ICARP III. Arctic sustainability is an issue of increasing concern within the Arctic and beyond it, including in ICARP endeavors. This paper reports some of the key findings of a white paper prepared by an international and interdisciplinary team as part of the ICARP-III process, with support from the International Arctic Science Committee Social and Human Sciences Working Group, the International Arctic Social Sciences Association and the Arctic-FROST research coordination network. Input was solicited through sharing the initial draft with a broader network of researchers, including discussion and feedback at several academic and community venues. This paper presents a progress report on Arctic sustainability research, identifies related knowledge gaps and provides recommendations for prioritizing research for the next decade.