Heat accumulation period in the Mediterranean region: phenological response of the olive in different climate areas (Spain, Italy and Tunisia) (original) (raw)
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The flowering characteristics of plant species of economic interest and the influence of climate on them are of great importance considering the implications for fruit setting and the final harvest: Olive is one of the typical species of the Mediterranean habitat. We have investigated the timing of olive full flowering during the anthesis period and flowering intensity over a period of 20 years (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009), in three major cultivation areas of the Mediterranean basin: Italy, Spain and Tunisia. The importance of these characteristics from a bioclimatic point of view is considered. The biological behaviour was studied to determine its main relationships with temperature and water availability, considering also the different sub-periods and the bioclimatic variations during the study period. The flowering dates and pollen emissions show different behaviours for the Spanish monitoring area in comparison with the other two olive cultivation areas. In the Italian and Tunisian areas, the flowering period over the last decade has become earlier by about 5 and 7 days, respectively, in comparison to the previous decade. Moreover, pollen emissions have decreased in Perugia (Italy) and Zarzis (Tunisia) over the period of
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Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long-term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean.