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Tourism Demand in Malaysia: A cross-sectional pool time-series analysis
This paper estimates tourism demand in Malaysia based on the key economic factors like income, price, exchange rate, consumer price index, distance, population and economic crisis using a modified Gravity model. The movement, pattern and changes of international tourist arrivals are also examined. A cross-sectional pool time-series of tourist arrivals from Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, United Kingdom, Thailand, Taiwan and China through using modified Gravity Model was applied. Log-linear equation indicates that the tourism demand is highly correlated with Gross National Income (GNI) of the countries which showing the impact on the standard of living. On the other hand, tourism demand negatively correlated with Exchange Rate (ER) as tourist from higher purchasing power prefers to visit Malaysia. Consumer Price Index (CPI) or inflation rate reduce number of tourist to travel. The increasing number of tourist arrivals was influenced by population growth and distance may reduce tourism demand. Economic crisis negatively affected the tourism demand from the ASEAN countries but positively correlated with the western and other continents. This study clearly indicates that despite of regional economic crisis Malaysian government can still rely on tourism industry as a means of sustaining the economy through international tourists.
Malaysia’s tourism demand: gravity model approach
2017
The tourism sector in Malaysia has undergone substantial growths as a result of the efforts taken by the Ministry of Tourism in policy planning and implementation. It is the government’s long-term goal to make Malaysia as the most popular tourism destination. The growth of tourism sector in Malaysia can be measured by tourist arrivals and receipts. Since this industry is able to drive Malaysian economy forward, more studies should be done in determining factors that influence demand for tourism. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the demand factors of tourist arrivals in Malaysia and estimate their relative importance. Through understanding the determinants of Malaysia’s tourism demand, the government can design strategies and policies to enhance Malaysia’s competitiveness as a tourist destination. This study employed the bilateral tourism flows gravity model. The model includes income level of origin country and exchange rate to control for international shocks. This s...
2018
The tourism sector in Malaysia has undergone substantial growths as a result of the efforts taken by the Ministry of Tourism in policy planning and implementation. It is the government’s long-term goal to make Malaysia as the most popular tourism destination. The growth of tourism sector in Malaysia can be measured by tourist arrivals and receipts. Since this industry is able to drive Malaysian economy forward, more studies should be done in determining factors that influence demand for tourism. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the demand factors of tourist arrivals in Malaysia and estimate their relative importance. Through understanding the determinants of Malaysia’s tourism demand, the government can design strategies and policies to enhance Malaysia’s competitiveness as a tourist destination. This study employed the bilateral tourism flows gravity model. The model includes income level of origin country and exchange rate to control for international shocks. This s...
Sustainability, 2021
This research first aims to forecast tourist arrivals to Langkawi, Malaysia from its top three source markets, namely, China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom, between 2020 and 2022. Using the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of those three countries, the study seeks to investigate the impact of GDP on tourist arrivals from these countries to Langkawi in the context of post-COVID-19 scenarios. The study uses expert modelers, namely, ARIMA models and Holt’s linear models, to find the best fit model. Then, linear regression analysis was conducted to assess the impact of GDP on tourist arrivals in Langkawi from the said three countries. The results from the Holt linear model predicted a significant increase in the number of tourist arrivals from China and Saudi Arabia from 2020–2022. In contrast, the number of forecasted tourist arrivals from the United Kingdom would be on a decreasing trend from 2020–2022. It is also predicted that GDP growth will influence the tourist a...
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the significance influence of some selected economic and non-economic factors in determining international tourist arrivals from ASEAN countries to Malaysia. These ASEAN countries are Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Brunei and Philippines. Based on the sample period of 15 years (ranging from 1995 to 2009) and the data are analyzed by using the panel data econometric technique; the fixed-/random effects model. Results of the study show that the relative price of tourism, real personal income, substitute price, dummy variables for Asian Financial Crisis and Tsunami aftermath are statistically significant in explaining international tourist arrivals from ASEAN countries to Malaysia. As for substitute price at alternative tourism destination (i.e. Singapore and Thailand), the result proves that Singapore is a substitute destination for Malaysia, whereas Thailand is considered as a complementary destination. In addition, the lagged dependent va...
The Pattern and the Impact of Middle Eastern Tourist Spending on Malaysia’s Economy
2012
The main objective of this research is to study the spending patterns of tourists from the Middle Eastern countries and to analyse their impact on Malaysia's economy utilising the input-output method. The Malaysian Input Output Table 2000 is used to estimate the important indicators such as the output, the tax revenue, the import and the employment multipliers. Aside from the data and the information in the input-output table, this study also estimates the expenses of the Middle Eastern tourists using a survey. The input-output table is aggregated into 18 sectors, and 5 of the sectors are related to tourism. From the estimation, the values of the multipliers range from 1.109-2.17 for the output multiplier, 0.048-0.592 for the import multiplier, 0.001-0.194 for the employment multiplier and 0.002-0.053 for the tax revenue multiplier. The differences in the multiplier values would provide a different degree of impact from tourist spending on the sectors in the economy. The sectors that provide more services to tourists would benefit from a greater impact than other sectors. The degree of impact experienced by the different sectors is determined by the pattern of tourist spending.
Malaysia’s Tourism Demand from Selected Countries: The ARDL Approach to Cointegration
International journal of …, 2007
This paper investigates the long-run and short-run relationships between tourist arrivals to Malaysia and tourism price in Malaysia, tourism prices at alternative destinations, traveling costs, incomes and exchange rates, using the bounds testing approach developed within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. The empirical results show that in the long run, tourism price in Malaysia, traveling costs, tourism prices at alternative destinations and incomes are the important determinants of Malaysia's tourism demand from the selected countries namely Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. The results also indicate that the 1997-98 East Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -SARS significantly affected Malaysia's tourism demand.
A cointegration analysis of annual tourism demand by Malaysia for Australia
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 2002
This paper investigates the long-run relationship between the demand for international travel to Australia from Malaysia and a group of leading macroeconomic variables, including Malaysian income, tourism prices in Australia, transportation costs between Malaysia and Australia, and the exchange rate between the two countries. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) procedure is used to test for unit roots, while Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors. A single cointegrating relationship is found among the set of non-stationary macroeconomic variables, and is compared with the ordinary least squares estimates. It is found that lagged changes in real airfares, and the extent to which the system is out of equilibrium, are statistically significant. Surprisingly, real income does not seem to have a significant effect on tourism demand from Malaysia to Australia when the cointegration technique is used. However, real income (as measured by the logarithm of real private consumption expenditures per capita) is significant when ordinary least squares estimation is used. Crown