Vulnerability and adaptation of wheat to climate change in Middle Egypt (original) (raw)

2009, 13th Conference on …

The effect of climate change on the yield of three wheat varieties (Sids1, Sakha 93 and Giza 168) and consumptive use was studied by implementing two-year field experiment in Giza Agricultural Station, Giza, Egypt in 2006/07 and 2007/08 growing seasons using CropSyst model with two climate change scenarios. These scenarios were A2 (temperature increase by 3.1°C and CO 2 concentration is 834 ppm) and B2 (temperature increase by 2.2°C and CO 2 concentration is 601 ppm) developed by Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research. CropSyst model was validated using the collected data of wheat yield and consumptive use. The scenarios were used to run the CropSyst model and to predict the expected yield in the year of 2038. Two early sowing dates were proposed as adaptation options, i.e. 1 st of November and 21 st of October to reduce the harm effect of climate change on wheat yield and a new irrigation schedule was used. The results indicated that CropSyst predictions for yield and consumptive use were highly accurate. Furthermore, A2 scenario predicted greater reduction in wheat yield, compared with B2 scenario in the year of 2038. Likewise, wheat yield losses were higher at the 1 st growing season, compared with the 2 nd growing season under the two scenarios. The results also revealed that under the 1 st growing season for both climate change scenarios, Sakha 93 variety was found to be more tolerant to heat stress. Whereas, Sids 1 variety was found less vulnerable to climate change in the 2 nd growing season. The results also showed that wheat yield improvement and irrigation water saving could be attained using the proposed adaptation strategies in the year of 2038. Under cultivation in November, 1 st , a slight improvement in yield losses could be achieved with a slight increase in the amount of applied irrigation water. Whereas, under sowing in October, 21 st , a decrease in yield losses could be achieved with a decrease in the amount of applied irrigation water. Under all cases, water use efficiency was increased, compared with its value under the two climate change scenarios.