Developing a Generic Algorithm for Assessing Financial Feasibility of Build-Operate-Transfer Road Projects (original) (raw)

2004

Abstract

This paper is concerned with developing a detailed generic algorithm to assist in conducting a comprehensive and structured financial feasibility assessment of private investment in road projects. The developed algorithm constitutes eight stages, namely defining the objectives of the project, traffic analysis, conducting Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), estimation of potential costs, forecasting of project revenues, estimation of key financial criteria and comparing these with project financial objectives so as to determine project viability. Finally, the eighth stage is concerned with minimizing uncertainties and risk through a three level procedure of conducing scenario analysis, sensitivity tests and risk analysis. Several conclusions are deduced, the most important of which is the importance to forecast and analyze the development of traffic flows over the life of a BOT road project. This forecast should particularly run over the time period considered for evaluating the ...

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