The application of modelling and simulation in support of operational decision making during land operations (original) (raw)

Interactive Simulations in Support of Decision Making on Defence Resource Allocation

Information & Security: An International Journal, 2009

This article describes the approach and the experience of the Defence and Force Management Department at the -G.S. Rakovski‖ Defence and Staff College in conducting interactive simulations that support decision making on force structure, force development programs, and the respective allocation of resources. The primary purpose of the simulation is to educate students, mostly senior military and civilian MOD personnel, in the intricacies of defence planning in a changing environment, and to provide ‗hands on' experience in defence programming and budgeting. In addition, it allows exploring the space of potential policy alternatives, force structuring and programming decisions, thus serving as a powerful decision support tool.

Title : Modeling as an Aid to Robust Tactical Decision-Making Topic 6 : Modeling and Simulation

2009

In C situations, decision makers would love having a crystal ball that describes future events not under their control, and how these events would affect each of the courses of action (COAs) being considered. Further, decision makers would appreciate knowing the potential cost of each COA—e.g, via a metric based on the numbers of resources used and the damage, injury, and deaths that may result. While crystal ball technology remains as elusive as ever, Lempert et al. and Chandrasekaran have developed general methods for identifying robust COAs by using simulation models that determine the plausible consequences of each COA under a wide range of possible futures. Because the simulation models must be run many times for each of the (possibly many) COAs, these techniques are computationally intensive, sometimes taking hours, days or weeks. Since tactical commanders need to make decisions in minutes or seconds, we have been manipulating the models underlying two different simulations to...

Representing the Human Decision Making Process in Simulation Models of Combat

2003

Across NATO, there is a growing realisation that the proper representation of Command and Control (C2) within combat models is very important, in the context of major Defence topics such as Digitization of the Battlespace. In addition to the use of current OA models and tools to address immediate requirements, there is thus a need for longer term research to develop methods of properly representing these effects. In consequence, research has been instigated in the UK to investigate ways in which the effects of C2 can be incorporated successfully into constructive simulation models of combat i.e. models which can run in closed form on a computer, and represent the effects of C2, without the need for human intervention during the simulation run. wider span of scenarios in studies, reflecting increased uncertainty in the post-Cold War world. Another reflection of this uncertainty is the need to consider a wide range of sensitivity analysis. These point to the need for constructive simu...

An Essay to Characterise Models the Military Decision-Making Processes

2006

Modeling the decision-making process has been an ongoing undertaking by the scientific, operational and business communities. Research communities have proposed different representations of decision making based on different perspectives like decision sciences, human factors, cognitive and psychological sciences, organisational behaviour, and social sciences. In the Command and Control context, the Observe–Orient– Decide–Act loop has been used since the 50s to describe the C2 process. For some, the military decision-making process might be seen as the full integration of both the Operations Planning Process and the Intelligence Preparation of the Battle space. It is our contention that each of the models has a valid contribution to make in advancing the understanding of the commander's decision-making process, but lack a common context. In order to better comprehend the seemingly disparate approaches, a unified decision-making framework is needed. This paper aims at depicting th...

Theater level operations other than war modeling: applications of decision making theory

1994

This paper presents an automated model for generating courses of action in support of an Operations Other Than War (OOTW) simulation. The model simulates the decision making of a theater level staff in the OOTW humanitarian assistance mission environment. The model uses probabilistic forecasting models and Bayesian techniques to predict what the state of a region in the theater will be some time in the future. Decision tree structures and the forecasting module are used to solve the decision making problem using expected utility. The model uses pairwise comparisons of utility attributes to obtain a decision maker's preference structure. This structure is applied over a multi-attribute utility function and the decision tree, to find the optimal course of action for some region of the theater at a specific time. Some variations on Lanchester's attrition equations are used to model attrition, the effect of civilians in a combat zone, and the effect of rules of engagement. The model was tested using data representative of Somalia in late 1992. The results indicated the best approach in this instance is to initially provide a high level of aid to reduce the civilian starvation rates then transition to a more aggressive posture with a strong force in readiness to retaliate for attacks by opposing forces. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Operations Other Than War, Decision Making, Bayesian, Decision Trees, Decision Theory 15.

Modeling of combat operations

Vojnotehnicki glasnik

Introduction/purpose: The goal of the research in this paper is to present and evaluate the method of modeling operations by aggregating forces by simulating the battle process with Lanchester's equations. This method is the software basis of a certain number of programs used in NATO, in war simulations, and in the planning and analysis of operations. Its value is in understanding the consequences of decisions made with outcomes and results of combat actions. Methods: The case study of the well-known Operation Desert Storm gathered the necessary data on operational parameters and the way forces are used in battles. The obtained data were transformed into operational variables of the combat model using the force aggregation method, whose simulation was carried out using the method of differential Lanchester's equations (quadratic law). Results: By simulating the modeled operation, the parameters of the outcome of the conflict were obtained with numerical indicators of success...

Modelling and Simulation in Defence

2003

The use of modelling and simulation (M&S) is becoming more pervasive throughout the NATO defence environment. Simulation models use a variety of techniques, which have evolved from system dynamics, information science and operations research (OR). There are closed simulations, without human interaction, which are used primarily for research and analysis. At the other end of the spectrum there are interactive simulations with considerably active participation of operators performing, in general, the human decision making process. The latter type has been the mainstay of experimental gaming or war gaming in the past, but is now finding increasing application in the computer-assisted exercises (CAX). Thus, it can be argued that, not only are simulation models and applications expanding, but that their associated techniques can be applied across the full spectrum of functional activities of armed forces.

The Application Of Simulation Technology To Military Command And Control Decision Support

2004

This paper reviews the application of simulation technology to military command and control decision support. A command and control system is defined and a model of decision-making is introduced. Possible applications of simulation to all phases of the command and control decision-making model are discussed. The difficulties of interfacing current C3I and simulation systems are outlined, and areas that require further research are identified.

9th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium Modelling Decision Making to Support NetCentric Warfare Experimentation

Netcentric warfare and associated concepts have a fundamental assumption that improved information infrastructures will improve military decision-making and therefore military effectiveness. Previous work on linking NCW applications to military effectiveness using modelling and simulation have had difficulties in modelling the decision-making aspects of the process, and in particular modelling them such that NCW applications can be shown to make a difference. A survey of conceptualisations of decision making suggests that two characteristics of a decision, its speed (or timeliness) and its soundness, and two types of decision making, recognition-based and analytic, constitute a sufficient foundation for modelling. Models based upon empirical timings can be found for decision speed for the two types, however modelling decision soundness is more problematic. A theoretical structure for decision soundness modelling is proposed using situation and decision spaces and constrained by commanders intent. This structure appears to be rich enough in detail to encompass the concepts of commanders intent, decision-makers beliefs and biases etc., but has not yet been practically implemented. Within the structure, situational awareness is represented by a sub-space of possible situations and perturbed by decision-maker biases, commander's intent is represented by a second subspace of possible situations, and decisions are functions from one space to another. Decision soundness is a metric to assess the results of applying a decision function on both the perceived and actual situations and compares these results to the commanders intent or mission objective. The application of the proposed structure to the analysis of maritime interception operations is explored.