Regional inequality and polarization in the context of concurrent extreme weather and economic shocks (original) (raw)
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Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes? Welfare Implications for Mozambique
Policy Research Working Papers
Changes in food prices-triggered frequently by natural disasters, macroeconomic shocks or regional market disruptions-can lead to large household welfare effects. At over 60 and 40 percent, food budget shares remain high in rural and urban Mozambique, respectively. Furthermore, nearly 70 percent of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. To determine the net impact of food price changes on consumption and poverty, we performed incidence analysis combining household and farmer survey data with disaggregated, market-level price data on major staples (maize, rice, and cassava). Overall, we find evidence for a large net negative welfare effect of price rises in rural areas, and a small, negative effect in the urban areas. For instance, A 10 percent increase in maize prices is associated with an average reduction of 1.2 percent in consumption per capita in rural areas and 0.2 percent in urban areas. Not all households are affected equally. Overall, the negative impacts are larger for the bottom half of the distribution. As a result, the sharp food price spike observed in 2016-17 may have translated into a poverty increase of 4-6 percentage points, with some of the poorest provinces bearing much of the brunt. These findings underscore the importance of improving the functioning of agricultural input and output markets, developing early food security warning systems, and increasing the availability of rapidly scalable safety nets.
Extreme weather and economic well-being in rural Mozambique
Natural Hazards, 2012
Societies dependent on rain-fed agriculture are highly vulnerable to weather extremes; thus, linkages between rainfall variability and economic well-being merit close attention. The hypothesis of this paper is that rainfall patterns impact changes in income within our study region of central and northern Mozambique. Utilizing satellite-based estimates of rainfall analyzed within a GIS, we establish a 12-year rainfall climatology and calculate monthly rainfall anomalies for 419 villages during three growing seasons. We also approximate storm-total rainfall from tropical cyclones entering the Mozambique Channel. Hierarchical cluster analysis groups the villages according to the monthly rainfall anomalies and rainfall received from Cyclones Delfina and Japhet. Then, using data from the National Agricultural Survey of Mozambique conducted in 2002 and 2005, we relate rainfall and change in income through the calculation of Pearson's correlation coefficients and independent-samples t tests using village-groups produced by the cluster analysis. We find that no season closely approximates the 12-year climatology and that rainfall varied among the three seasons. Although most villages experience income declines, those affected by Delfina exhibit the worst economic performance, indicating that heavy rainfall from some tropical cyclones can have long-lasting negative effects on income. Additionally, receiving above-normal rainfall may hinder economic well-being more than below-normal rainfall. Our study identifies patterns in sub-national rainfall variability and economic well-being that enable a more detailed understanding of weather-related effects on socioeconomic outcomes.
A Multilevel Analysis of Agricultural Trade and Socioeconomic Inequality in Rural Mozambique
The Professional Geographer, 2008
for all their help and support during this study. The author also expresses her gratitude to Stewart Duncan, Corene Matyas, and five anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions on earlier drafts of this article. The author also thanks Nicholas Campiz for cartographic and graphic design assistance. All remaining errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the author.
Relating Rainfall Patterns to Agricultural Income: Implications for Rural Development in Mozambique
Rural farmers in Mozambique rely on rain-fed agriculture for food and income, yet they experience high rainfall variability ranging from extreme drought to flooding rainfall from tropical cyclone systems. To explore linkages between rainfall and agriculture, the authors regress changes in annual household per capita agricultural income on reliance on staple food crops, agricultural and demographic characteristics, and rainfall patterns using longitudinal data for rural households for 2002 and 2005. They characterize rainfall patterns by defining nine rainfall zones using the percent of normal rainfall received in each month of three agricultural growing seasons and rainfall from two tropical cyclones that occurred during the study period. Results show that in a period where monthly rainfall seldom occurred in normal amounts, most households experienced decreases in agricultural income. Even after controlling for rainfall patterns, they find that greater household dependency on staple crop agriculture is associated with declining annual agricultural income. They also find that areas affected by both wet and dry rainfall extremes in the first year of the study had decreases in the well-being of rural households when measured two years later. Taken together, their findings suggest that antipoverty policies focused on increasing agricultural income seem likely to fail in countries characterized by highly variable rainfall and exposure to extreme events, particularly when coupled with high levels of poverty and widespread dependence on rain-fed agriculture.
Planning for Drought in Mozambique: Balancing the Roles of Food Aid and Food Markets
1998
Agriculture and Fisheries maintains two publication series for results of research on food security issues. Publications under the Flash series are short (3-4 pages), carefully focused reports designed to provide timely research results on issues of great interest. Publications under the Research Paper series are designed to provide longer, more in-depth treatment of food security issues. The preparation of Flash reports and Research Reports, and their discussion with those who design and influence programs and policies in Mozambique, is an important step in the Directorates's overall analysis and planning mission.
Weather variability and extreme shocks in Africa: Are female or male farmers more affected?
in 1975, provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI's strategic research aims to foster a climate-resilient and sustainable food supply; promote healthy diets and nutrition for all; build inclusive and efficient markets, trade systems, and food industries; transform agricultural and rural economies; and strengthen institutions and governance. Gender is integrated in all the Institute's work. Partnerships, communications, capacity strengthening, and data and knowledge management are essential components to translate IFPRI's research from action to impact. The Institute's regional and country programs play a critical role in responding to demand for food policy research and in delivering holistic support for country-led development. IFPRI collaborates with partners around the world.
The role of nonfarm income in coping with the effects of drought in southern Mozambique
Agricultural Economics, 2011
To reduce their dependence on subsistence agriculture, farm households in rural Africa may diversify their income sources by participating in the nonfarm sector. In years of drought, nonfarm income can also be part of the coping strategies. A multivariate sample selection model was used to analyze three years of data from a nationally representative household survey in Mozambique. The analysis was guided by the following three questions. During a drought year: (1) Do households increase their participation in nonfarm activities? (2) Are poorer households as likely as others to participate in and benefit from nonfarm activities? and (3) Which factors are associated with higher nonfarm incomes? The results suggest that households are more likely to engage in at least one nonfarm income-generating activity during a drought year. Although poorer households are more likely to engage in nonfarm activities, they are less likely to participate in nonfarm activities of high return. The results suggest that policies reducing entry barriers (e.g., improved road infrastructure, micro-credit schemes, and livestock promotion programs) and increasing education levels can facilitate income diversification, thus allowing rural households to better cope with the effects of drought. When designing polices, care must be taken to avoid exacerbating income inequality by targeting measures toward poorer and female-headed households.
Food Security Dynamics and its Drivers in Rural Mozambique
International Journal of Sciences, 2017
This paper uses regionally representative panel household survey data of 1,186 households in the high agriculture potential zone located in the Central and Northern regions to assess household food security trends and its drivers, specifically to determine the extent landholdings have influenced food security dynamics in rural Northern-Central Mozambique. The main finding of this study is that although food security level has been stable over the study period, the agricultural production, rural non-farm activities, establishment of food reserves, food availability, assets, and access to non-farm income opportunities and transportation have influenced food security level of the rural families. This suggests that investing in infrastructures such as public transportation and roads, minimizing agricultural production risks, promoting in education and livestock production aremore likely to have a larger effect on the extremely poor households than on the less poor when wage employment opportunities and proper training are available.
2018
Evidence of the impact of large-scale land transfers on household food security is scarce in Africa. This study investigated the effect of large-scale agricultural investments in the Monapo and Gurue districts of Mozambique. The sample of 504 households was classified into households (i) in which at least one member was employed (ii) households in the same area that were not employees of the agribusiness (non-engaged) and (iii) counterfactual households from another community. Although a third of households in the factual zones reported having lost land, severe hunger and food insecurity were not common. Employed households reported better dietary quality, food security and resilience. The counterfactual households had higher food security indexes than non-engaged households in the factual zones. It is not possible to draw concrete conclusions on whether the large-scale agricultural investments had a positive or negative effect on household food security as the effect could be influ...
Agriculture and Food Security in Mozambique
Journal of Food, Nutrition and Agriculture, 2018
The objective of this short review is to contribute to the debate on the role of agriculture transformation in the development process and as an engine to reduce poverty and improve general wellbeing through better access to nutrients in Mozambique. Agricultural services are organized by Provinces but still there is no accurate data on food production, consumption and trade trends in a large sample. It is recognized the complexity of the food security concept and the need of a multidimensional definition and approach. The increase in agricultural productivity can probably be seen as a necessary but not a sufficient condition to achieve long term food security in Mozambique or Sub-Saharan Africa. Competing views about the relevance of agriculture for growth and development imply different policy priorities in Africa.