A Complex Network Theory Approach for the Spatial Distribution of Fire Breaks in Heterogeneous Forest Landscapes for the Control of Wildland Fires (original) (raw)

Modelling Forest Fires Using Complex Networks

Mathematical and Computational Applications, 2021

Forest fires have been a major threat to the environment throughout history. In order to mitigate its consequences, we present, in a first of a series of works, a mathematical model with the purpose of predicting fire spreading in a given land portion divided into patches, considering the area and the rate of spread of each patch as inputs. The rate of spread can be estimated from previous knowledge on fuel availability, weather and terrain conditions. We compute the time duration of the spreading process in a land patch in order to construct and parametrize a landscape network, using cellular automata simulations. We use the multilayer network model to propose a network of networks at the landscape scale, where the nodes are the local patches, each with their own spreading dynamics. We compute some respective network measures and aim, in further work, for the establishment of a fire-break structure according to increasing accuracy simulation results.

Reducing wildland fire hazard exploiting complex network theory: A case study analysis

Chemical engineering transactions, 2016

We discuss a new systematic methodology to mitigate wildland fire hazard by appropriately distributing fuel breaks in space. In particular, motivated by the concept of information flow in complex networks we create a hierarchical allocation of the landscape patches that facilitate the fire propagation based on the Bonacich centrality. Reducing the fuel load in these critical patches results to lower levels of fire hazard. For illustration purposes we apply the proposed strategy to a real case of wildland fire. In particular we focus on the wildland fire that occurred in Spetses Island, Greece in 1990 and burned the one third of the forest. The efficiency of the proposed strategy is compared against the benchmark of random distribution of fuel breaks for a wide range of fuel breaks densities.

A Multi-Scale Network with Percolation Model to Describe the Spreading of Forest Fires

Mathematics, 2022

Forest fires have been a major threat to forest ecosystems and its biodiversity, as well as the environment in general, particularly in the Mediterranean regions. To mitigate fire spreading, this study aims at finding a fire-break solution for territories prone to fire occurrence. To the effect, here follows a model to map and predict phase transitions in fire regimes (spanning fires vs penetrating fires) based on terrain morphology. The structure consists of a 2-scale network using site percolation and SIR epidemiology rules in a cellular automata to model local fire Dynamics. The target area for the application is the region of Serra de Ossa in Portugal, due to its wildfire incidence. The study considers the cases for a Moore neighbourhood of warm cells of radius 1 and 2 and also considers a heterogeneous terrain with 3 classes of vegetation. Phase transitions are found for different combinations of fire risk for each of these classes and use these values to parametrize the result...

Complex network statistics to the design of fire breaks for the control of fire spreading

Chemical engineering transactions, 2015

A computational approach for identifying efficient fuel breaks partitions for the containment of fire incidents in forests is proposed. The approach is based on the complex networks statistics, namely the centrality measures and cellular automata modeling. The efficiency of various centrality statistics, such as betweenness, closeness, Bonacich and eigenvalue centrality to select fuel breaks partitions vs. the random-based distribution is demonstrated. Two examples of increasing complexity are considered: (a) an artificial forest of randomly distributed density of vegetation, and (b) a patch from the area of Vesuvio, National Park of Campania, Italy. Both cases assume flat terrain and single type of vegetation. Simulation results over an ensemble of lattice realizations and runs show that the proposed approach appears very promising as it produces statistically significant better outcomes when compared to the random distribution approach.

Wildland fire spread modelling using cellular automata: evolution in large-scale spatially heterogeneous environments under fire suppression tactics

International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2011

We show how microscopic modelling techniques such as Cellular Automata linked with detailed geographical information systems (GIS) and meteorological data can be used to efficiently predict the evolution of fire fronts on mountainous and heterogeneous wild forest landscapes. In particular, we present a lattice-based dynamic model that includes various factors, ranging from landscape and earth statistics, attributes of vegetation and wind field data to the humidity of the fuel and the spotting transfer mechanism. We also attempt to model specific fire suppression tactics based on air tanker attacks utilising technical specifications as well as operational capabilities of the aircrafts. We use the detailed model to approximate the dynamics of a large-scale fire that broke out in a region on the west flank of the Greek National Park of Parnitha Mountain in June of 2007. The comparison between the simulation and the actual results showed that the proposed model predicts the fire-spread ...

Forest Fire Modelling and Analytics: A Comprehensive Study A Network Simulation and Proposal of Fire Prevention Strategies

2020

Forest fires have been common environmental issues that have impacted millions of lives and natural resources. Thus, an in-depth study of the behavior of wildfires is critical in devising preventive strategies to control its rapid spread. However, despite a significant amount of work that has been done in the literature, developing an effective fire spread model is still a challenge. Our goal is to design a model of forest fire propagation and be able to simulate the behavior of cascading fires in the forest. More specifically, we propose INCINERATE 1 , a fire simulator in forest network graphs. A Linear Threshold model, together with various mathematical models from literature, were employed in this simulation that “determines” the behavior of fire propagation. We then propose fire prevention strategies in order to mitigate the damage of forest fires. In particular, we propose the FIGHTER 2 algorithm, a neighborhood-based edge-removal scheme utilizing the Girvan-Newman heuristic. I...

Modeling Wildfire Spread with an Irregular Graph Network

Fire

The wildfire prediction model is crucial for accurate rescue and rapid evacuation. Existing models mainly adopt regular grids or fire perimeters to describe the wildfire landscape. However, these models have difficulty in explicitly demonstrating the local spread details, especially in a complex landscape. In this paper, we propose a wildfire spread model with an irregular graph network (IGN). This model implemented an IGN generation algorithm to characterize the wildland landscape with a variable scale, adaptively encoding complex regions with dense nodes and simple regions with sparse nodes. Then, a deep learning-based spread model is designed to calculate the spread duration of each graph edge under variable environmental conditions. Comparative experiments between the IGN model and widely used fire simulation models were conducted on a real wildfire in Getty, California, USA. The results show that the IGN model can accurately and explicitly describe the spatiotemporal characteri...