Evolving Philippines-U.S.-China Strategic Triangle: International and Domestic Drivers (original) (raw)

Philippine Political Science Journal The Duterte Administration's appeasement policy on China and the crisis in the Philippine–US alliance

This article examines the shifts in Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte Administration, and how these changes impact 21st century Philippine–US alliance. Unlike the Aquino Administration that challenged China’s expansionism in the South China Sea, the Duterte Administration keeps silent on this maritime dispute in exchange for Chinese trade concessions, aid, and investments. President Duterte fosters closer economic and diplomatic relations with China and distances the Philippines from the US Specifically, he seeks China’s assistance for the building of drug-rehabilitation centers for Filipino drug dependents, soft loans for the construction of railways in Mindanao, and even the acquisition of Chinese-made weapons for the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). In consideration of this largess, President Duterte has degraded the country’s strategic security ties with the US by terminating the joint Philippine–US naval patrols in the South China Sea, and limiting the scope and number of US military interactions with the AFP. These moves, which are a dramatic departure from the Philippines’ long-standing policy of maintaining close security ties with the US, have strained the Philippine–US alliance. This article addresses this central question: How do the foreign policy changes under the Duterte Administration adversely impact the Philippine–US alliance? It also raises the following questions: (1) What are the foreign policy goals of the Duterte Administration? (2) How does the Duterte Administration pursue these goals? (3) In what ways does the pursuit of these goals affect Philippine–US alliance? (4) What is the future of Philippine–US alliance in the light of the Duterte Administration’s shifting foreign policy goals? I would have alliances on trade and commerce with China. Russia has

The Duterte Administration’s Foreign Policy: Unravelling the Aquino Administration’s Balancing Agenda on an Emergent China

Abstract: From 2010 to 2016, then-President Benigno Aquino balanced China’s expansive maritime claim in the South China Sea. President Aquino challenged China by shifting the AFP’s focus from domestic security to territorial defence, bolstering closer Philippine–US security relations, acquiring American military equipment, seeking from Washington an explicit security guarantee under the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT), and promoting a strategic partnership with Japan. However, the Duterte administration is unravelling its predecessor’s balancing agenda by distancing itself from the United States and gravitating closer to China, despite the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) July 12 2016 award to the Philippines. President Duterte’s foreign policy is directed at reviving the equi-balancing policy on China, in contrast to then-President Aquino’s balancing strategy. This is best exemplified by his efforts to harness China for several major infrastructure and investments projects in the Philippines and to resort to bilateral negotiations with Beijing. The present article argues that instead of relying on the US, President Duterte is fostering closer security partnership with Japan to equi-balance an emergent China.  Manuscript received 7 October2016; accepted 2 January 2017

The Philippines' Institutionalised Alliance with the US: Surviving Duterte's China Appeasement Policy

National Security Journal, 2021

This paper examines the security partnership of the United States-Philippines during the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte. Using the theoretical framework of alliance institutionalisation, we identified several factors that can determine the strength of alliances and security partnerships. Applying this framework, we suggest that because of deep alliance institutionalisation, the security partnership between the Philippines and the United States is actually quite resilient despite President Duterte's position on this issue.

Twenty-First Century Philippines' Policy Toward an Emergent China: From Equi-Balancing to Strategic Balancing

The article examines the Philippines’ two approaches to China’s emergence as an emergent power. The first is the Philippines’ strategy of equi-balancing the United States and China in the early years of the 21st century. During this period, the country revived and strengthened its security arrangements with the U.S. while at the same time, obtained economic and politico-diplomatic concessions from East Asia’s emergent power, China. The second is the Philippines’ strategic balancing policy on China. Since 2011, the Aquino Administration has been conducting a delicate balancing act vis-à-vis China, which has become aggressive in asserting its sovereignty over the South China Sea. Currently, the Philippines seeks U.S. diplomatic support and security guarantee relative to its territorial row with China. In the process, President Aquino has discarded his predecessor’s policy of equi-balancing the great powers and tilted the balance in favor of the U.S. This policy shift that entails American and Japanese strategic backing that doubtlessly enhances Philippine-U.S. alliance but strains Philippine-China bilateral relations.

How Indo-Pacific Geopolitics Affects Foreign Policy: The Case of the Philippines, 2010-2017

How Indo-Pacific Geopolitics Affects Foreign Policy: The Case of the Philippines, 2010-2017, 2018

This article examines how two Philippine presidents took into account the ongoing geo-strategic competition between the U.S. and China. At the start of his sixyear term, President Benigno Aquino III became concerned that China’s maritime expansion threatened the Philippines’ territorial rights over its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea. He then pursued a balancing policy towards China’s maritime expansion into this area. Aquino pursued this policy as a reaction to China’s naval expansion but also considered the Obama Administration’s strategic rebalancing to Asia. President Rodrigo Duterte, however, is unraveling his predecessor’s geopolitical agenda in the South China Sea. Duterte has pursued an appeasement policy on China to take advantage of Beijing’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. Strategically, President Duterte has shown a sensitivity to Chinese security interests. In conclusion, both Filipino presidents, in crafting their respective foreign policies, have taken into account the geopolitical developments in the Indo-Pacific region in terms of the prospect of losing either territorial rights or economic gains. Keywords Philippine

21st Century Philippine-China Relations: From Distant to Antagonistic Neighbors

Since diplomatic ties between the Philippines and China were established in the mid-1970s, the two neighbors’ bilateral relations have undergone a cycle of indifference, suspicion, cooperation, bickering and now outright antagonism that might lead into a full-blown conflict. This chapter examines the vagaries in Philippine-China relations since 1975. It addresses the main question: how Philippine-China bilateral relation has evolved since the mid-1970s? It also explores the following questions: a) What factors account for the ups and downs in Philippine-China relations? What is the current state of Philippine-China relations? And what is the future of Philippine-China relations?

The Aquino Administration's Balancing Policy against an Emergent China: Its Domestic and External Dimensions

This article examines why and how small powers balance big powers. One such small power is the Philippines, which—despite its military weakness— applies a balancing policy on an emergent China relative to the South China Sea imbroglio. Largely, this balancing policy is the upshot of three developments: a) the present Aquino administration's efforts to disassociate itself from the previous Arroyo administration's policy of equi-balancing China and the US; b) China's heavy-handed behaviour in the South China Sea dispute; and c) the willingness of the US to assist the Philippines in constraining an assertive China. In conclusion, the article offers two reasons why this balancing policy is risky and difficult. First, the Philippines needs time and resources to develop the military capability to back its territorial claim in the South China Sea; and second, the US, though supportive of the Philippine position, is wary of triggering a full-blown geo-strategic rivalry with China.