Future of Transport?- Future of Cities! (original) (raw)

2012, Promet Traffic Transportation

The future of transp01t, whatever it will be, cannot be considered separately from that of cities. But what, where and when is the city today? The ability to provide opportunities for human interaction is the essential reason for cities to exist. In the pre-industrial past this required high-density, compact urban forms. Modem transport and communication techniques have however increasingly offered human beings ways of interacting at a distance. Physical proximity is no longer needed by many types of urban activities. As a result, cities have decentralised, as industry first, then residences and services have fled the diseconomies of high-density agglomerations. For the future, some even predict the advent of an entirely diffuse, 'virtual' city. Actual evidence is at best mixed. Next to ongoing decentralisation, there are also signals that point in the opposite direction, as there are activities that show a tendency to physically concentrate, underscoring a persistent need for physical human interaction. These activities include business and financial services, the emerging sectors of culture, entertainment and the media, but also certain types of residences and of production. As a result, rather than decentralisation or concentration, contemporary cities show a complex combination of decentralisation and concentration. How will these contrasting movements shape the cities of the future? Are telecommunication technologies going to radically alter current trends? Or will the quest for sustainability do this? And what will the role of transp01tation-as cause and effect-be? The diffuse urban-regional accessibility warranted by the car and the inter-metropolitan connections provided by the aeroplane have been essential conditions for the urbanisation patterns of the recent past. But will the car and the aeroplane also be the transportation means of the cities of the future?