Dynamics and Prediction of Diametric Structure in Two Atlantic Forest Fragments in Northeastern Brazil (original) (raw)

Prognosis of the Diameter Distribution and Carbon Stock in a Secondary Atlantic Forest by Markov Chain

Revista Árvore, 2018

Growth and yield modeling at the diameter distribution level is an important tool to understand forest dynamics and to predict whether a forest will act as a CO2 emissions source or sink. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to determine the diameter distribution and carbon stock of a forest fragment using the Markov chain to evaluate the impact of growth dynamics on forest carbon capture. Twenty plots of 10x50m were inventoried, between 2010 and 2015, counting the stems with dbh > 5 cm. Diameter distribution was projected for 2015 and 2020, considering the whole fragment and the ecological groups (pioneer and non-pioneer tree species). The volume was determined using allometric equation while biomass and carbon was determined by multiplying the volume by the basic wood density and the carbon content, respectively. The diameter distribution estimated for the fragment and ecological groups did not differ statistically from the values observed using the Kolmogorov-Smir...

Projection of Diametric Distribution and Carbon Stock of a Managed Forest in Manaus/Am

FLORESTA, 2014

The projection of forest growth is important for forest management, to plan the subsequent cutting cycles and to show the tendencies that the forest will present in the future. This study evaluated the use of a stochastic model - the Markov Chain - in the projection of the future diametric distribution and carbon stock of a forest subjected to experimental selective logging in Manaus / AM. The data used were obtained from an experiment conducted since the 1980s by the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (Inpa). The forest inventories were conducted in the years 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010. The main variable used was the diameter at breast height (DBH). The Markov Chain was used to project the diameter distribution and the carbon stock for 2015. With respect to the stock of carbon expected, this should exceed the existing stock in 2010, reaching about 157 t/ha. With these results it is possible to conclude that, if the dynamics projection will be confirmed, the studied forest w...

Successional dynamics in Neotropical forests are as uncertain as they are predictable

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015

Although forest succession has traditionally been approached as a deterministic process, successional trajectories of vegetation change vary widely, even among nearby stands with similar environmental conditions and disturbance histories. Here, we provide the first attempt, to our knowledge, to quantify predictability and uncertainty during succession based on the most extensive long-term datasets ever assembled for Neotropical forests. We develop a novel approach that integrates deterministic and stochastic components into different candidate models describing the dynamical interactions among three widely used and interrelated forest attributes—stem density, basal area, and species density. Within each of the seven study sites, successional trajectories were highly idiosyncratic, even when controlling for prior land use, environment, and initial conditions in these attributes. Plot factors were far more important than stand age in explaining successional trajectories. For each site...

Assessing size–class dynamics of a neotropical gallery forest with stationary models

Ecological Modelling, 2015

We used stationary matrix models to assess size-class dynamics of a protected neotropical gallery forest in Central Brazil, and tested their predictive capacity for different calibration periods. Data series comprised of all trees (with diameter ! 10 cm) registered in 151 (10 m  20 m) permanent plots in the years of 1985, 1988, 1991, 1994, 1999, 2004, and 2009. Demographic and diameter growth rates fluctuated, and recruitment slightly decreased after 1991. All models produced reliable (P > 0.05) shortterm projections ( 10 years). However, models calibrated before 1991 produced unreliable >10-year projections. The model calibrated over the 1991-1994 period reliably predicted size-class structure after 5 consecutive 3-year simulations (15 years). Results show that short-term (10-year) size-class structure of protected neotropical rainforests can be reliably predicted using stationary matrix models; and that predictions are slightly sensitive to the calibration period. Although stand dynamics were variable and affected by environmental stochasticity, size-class structural dynamics remained close to constant after 1991, since all projections from stationary models calibrated after that year were similar to the observed data (P > 0.05). This indicates that, under the recent levels of natural disturbances, the forest has maintained stability in the size-class dynamics.

Spatial-Temporal Analysis of the Forest Fragments Surrounding a Conservation Unit in the Southern Region of Brazil

Environmental Sciences Proceedings, 2020

In recent years, anthropogenic actions have intensified forest fragmentation, causing several damages to the landscape’s natural components, propagating the loss of biodiversity. This study aims to present an analysis of the forest fragments in a conservation unit located at southern of Brazil. The evaluation was carried out for the years 1998, 2008, and 2018, by using landscape metrics and classification of remote sensing imagery of the Landsat satellite. The following metrics were analyzed: area and edge, shape, core area, and aggregation. The results indicated an increase of 16.88% in the total area of vegetation, and the percentage of fragments increased from 16.16% to 18.89%. The number of fragments decreased, resulting in an increase of the mean area in 5.4 ha. The percentage of vegetation under border effect changed from 40.2% to 37.1%. In 1998, the average nearest neighbor distance was 155.4 m, and in 2018, 149.7 m. However, this distance is still classified as a high degree...

Population structure of understory, canopy/emergent tree species in Brazilian Atlantic Forest remnants with different Conservation status

Research, Society and Development

The size and spatial structures of populations are a synthesis of demographic attributes and indicators of competitive ability, colonization, and survival. In this study, the objective was to analyze the height and spatial pattern of an understory and canopy/emergent tree populations group in two protected fragments of seasonal semideciduous forest, one with a history of selective logging and another without selective logging evidences. Six species with high importance values (IV) from different guilds were selected and height and spatial pattern analysis was realized in both areas. Then, comparison of results was realized in an area with history of selective logging and another without selective logging evidences. Differences in height and spatial pattern were found between the two areas, including species not directly exploited. In Logged Forest the size structure for all species presented a higher coefficient of skewness, showing a greater proportion of young trees. Random distri...

Mortality, recruitment and growth of the tree communities in three forest formations at the Panga Ecological Station over ten years (1997-2007). Acta Botanica Brasilica

The area evaluated in this study was a continuous stretch comprising three vegetation formations: gallery forest, semideciduous seasonal forest and cerradão (woodland savanna). The aim of this study was to examine the tree community dynamics in a forest gradient—from gallery forest to cerradão—at Panga Ecological Station, in the city of Uberlandia, located in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The study was based on data from a previous inventory of the continuous forest conducted in 211 permanent 10 × 10 m sample plots in eight parallel transect running perpendicular to Panga Creek. Trees with a diameter at breast height ≥ 4.77 cm were sampled in 1997, 2002 and 2007. With the exception of the cerradão, there was a net reduction in tree density over the studied period of ten years, because mortality rates were higher than the recruitment rates. The basal area increased during the period of the study, especially at cerradão. The mean mortality rate in the studied area was 2.64%.yr−1 and 3.36%.yr−1 for the 1997-2002 and 2002-2007 periods, respectively, whereas the mean recruitment rate was 1.76%.yr−1 and 1.97%.yr−1, respectively. In general, mortality rates and recruitment rates have increased during the two successive periods of measurement and showed an imbalance in favor of mortality for the semideciduous seasonal forest and the gallery forest. This fact, added to the low density and high basal area, suggest that there was a process of thinning in the tree community. However, at cerradão, there was an imbalance in favor of recruitment, with a consequent increase in density and basal area, indicating that the cerradão is in a construction phase, which was further favored by a decrease in the occurrence of fire and other anthropogenic disturbances. When the turnover rates are taken into consideration, the global dynamics of the study area over the ten years evaluated can be expressed as cerradão > semideciduous seasonal forest > gallery forest.

Dynamics of a dry forest fragment after the exclusion of human disturbance in southeastern Brazil

Plant Ecology, 2004

Changes in the structure and composition of a dry forest fragment were described for a 4-yr period (1994–1998) in the southeastern Brazil (19°12′05″ S and 47°08′02″ W). This is the first dynamic study of a vanishing type of dry forest, which grows on base-rich soils originating from the basalt bedrock of western Minas Gerais State. A survey of trees ≥ 3.2 cm dbh (diameter at breast height, or 1.30 m) was conducted in 26 transects of 50 m × 6 m (0.78 ha). The species were classified into three regeneration guilds – pioneer, light-demanding and shade-tolerant – on the basis of others studies and personal observation. There was a decrease of 10.1% in the number of trees between 1994 and 1998. However, the basal area had an increase of 1.5% in the same period. Size class distributions in 1994 and 1998 were significantly different. The smallest trees (diameter –1) and recruitment (1.6% yr–1) rates similar to other tropical rain forests for trees ≥ 10 cm dbh. The present fragment of forest (turnover time = 39.5 yr, at cut level 10 cm dbh) lies among the most dynamic tropical forests. The main compositional changes were the increase of shade-tolerant trees and decline of pioneer species. The changes in composition and structure over the survey period may reflect the recovery of the forest after 4 yr of conservation.

Diametric structure of a deciduous forest fragment in the agribusiness region of western Santa Catarina State, Brazil

Bioscience Journal, 2019

Forest structure studies may be carried out through the diametric distribution of individuals within a population, which is defined by characterizing the number of trees per unit area and diameter class intervals. The De Liocourt's q quotient can be used to assess the relationship between recruitment and mortality in forest communities because when a constant ratio occurs between the classes, it represents that the recruitment rate is similar to the mortality rate and the distribution can be considered as regular or balanced. This study aims to analyze the diametric structure of the arboreal component of a seasonal deciduous forest fragment located in the Peixe River Valley, Midwest of Santa Catarina State, Brazil. The sampled individuals were distributed in diameter classes with an amplitude of 5 cm, in which the center of the first class presented a value of 6.5 cm. Subsequently, the observed and estimated diametric distribution curves were constructed for the overall sampling...