Icy futures:carving the northern sea route (original) (raw)
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Arctic in the Global Warming Phenomenon Era: New Maritime Routes & Geopolitical Tensions
Numerous studies have highlighted the various adverse consequences related to the already scientifically recorded increase of Earth’s temperature, more widely known as “global warming phenomenon”. To name just a few, there are repeated observations of extreme weather patterns, occurrences of droughts (and the associated increased possibility of “water-related conflicts”), rise of the sea level, reduction on flora and fauna and so forth. Global economy cannot remain unaffected; the cost to deal with any of the aforementioned environmental degradations, all obviously interrelated to the climate change that is taking place in recent years, will be extremely high to bear. On the other hand, shipping, a sector intertwined with both the environment and the economy, lies before significant opportunities because of the opening of the arctic passages. Nevertheless, plans to use these passages should take into account developments within the domain of geopolitics. As this drastic change of the physical environment is progressing, there are also emerging complications expected to affect not only the neighboring coastal states of the Arctic, but potentially the whole international relations system. The ice-pact of the Arctic is continuously losing size and the possibility for shipping crossing through the region is gaining ground. But, the introduction of these new maritime routes is also associated with contradicting geopolitical aims for many actors within the international setting. The purpose of the current analysis is to approach the very intricate region of the Arctic by focusing simultaneously upon the environmental, the economic, as well as the interstate-relations aspect. This inhospitable part of the world is an epicenter of contradictions: a promising field for economic growth, but also a new chess-board for interstate rivalries. Depending on the “grand-strategies” of the actors involved, a possible outcome might be escalating tensions leading even to completely blocking the freedom of navigation. With climate change impacting negatively upon international relations, only a cooperative management approach for the whole Arctic region could pave the way towards the easy integration of these new routes within the contemporary global maritime transport system.
Arctic governance: Understanding the geopolitics of commercial shipping via the Northern Sea Route
2015
The purpose of this study is to examine the implications of the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) with regard to governance in the Arctic. This topic is of importance as Arctic waters are getting bluer, more accessible, exploitable and attractive to investors, both public and private. Thus, numerous states and the international shipping industry are increasingly eyeing the NSR as an alternative trade route between Asia and Europe. However, the Arctic region and the NSR waters' sovereignty remain unclear. Moreover, an increased density of international merchant vessels in the Arctic Ocean, a military reasserted Russia and the growing influence of China in international politics and trade suggest that the geopolitics of the Arctic may be challenged by the NSR. 5. Examining the Northern Sea Route 42 5.1 Destination and transit shipping on the NSR 42 5.2 The historical development of shipping via the NSR 43 5.2.1 Arctic exploration 43 5.2.2 Commercialising the NSR 43 5.2.3 World War II and the strategic role of the NSR 45 5.2.4 The NSR during the Cold War 46 5.2.5 The NSR after Soviet times 48 5.3 The modern NSR and its traffic numbers 50 5.3.1 Traffic increase from 2009 50 5.3.2 International transit shipments via the NSR 52 5.3.3 Destination shipments via the NSR 57 5.3.4 Traffic decline in 2014 59 5.4 Advantages and pull factors for a greater utilisation of the NSR 63 5.4.1 Shorter sailing distance 63 5.4.2 Political instability on the Suez-Malacca route 66 5.4.3 Arctic natural resources 67 5.4.4 China's interest in the Arctic and the NSR 69 5.4.5 Reform of the NSR Administration 71 5.5 Limitations of the NSR 71 6. The implications of the NSR on Arctic governance 75 6.1 Interpreting the NSR from a realist point of view 76 6.1.1 Territorial aggression 76 6.1.2 Aggressive rhetoric 77 6.1.3 China's increasing geopolitical weight 78 6.1.4 Strengthening of Russia's armed forces 79 6.2 The NSR through a liberalist lens 80 6.2.1 The legal regime of the Arctic and the NSR 80 6.2.2 The distribution of natural resources 84 6.2.3 The Arctic Council 84 6.2.4 A stronger Russian presence in the Arctic 85 6.3 An Arctic zone of peace 87 6.4 Conflict spillover in the Arctic 88 7. Conclusion 91 7.1 Suggestions for further research 93
Polar seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: An analysis of shipowners' intentions II
Journal of Transport Geography
Climate change in the Arctic is leading to the fast recession of the sea ice extent in the summer. This evolution leads several observers, scientists, media and government officials, to consider the possibility of developing new shipping routes along Arctic routes, as these routes are much shorter between Europe and Asia. The literature displays a strong interest for these potential shipping routes while the media often assume shipping companies nurture a sustained attraction for Arctic routes. This paper tackles with this idea and examines to what extent shipping companies, the ultimate economic agents, are really interested in Arctic shipping routes. The image the research portrayed is that only a minority of shipping companies are indeed interested, and those that are interested stress the destinational dimension of Arctic shipping, not transit shipping.
Arctic Yearbook , 2017
The consequences of global climate change are mostly portrayed as negative for environment and society, due to the warming in temperatures. However, there are certain benefits from this process as well. One of them is the opening of a polar shipping route between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The Northern Sea Route may cut travel time from Europe to Asia by 40% and allow Russia to export its vast natural resources much faster. Some expert assessments point out that remote northern Russian towns which have been experiencing economic depression in the transition period may turn to economic and social revival. But this process may entail new risks for fragile Arctic ecosystems and traditional nature management by Indigenous populations. Most discussions about Russia’s Northern Sea Route focus on shipping traffic, sea ice assessments and expected socio-economic benefits. However, assessments of the impact of further industrialization for the adjacent coastal zone ecosystems and northern residents are still inadequate. Thus, this paper is aimed not only at analyzing the Russian Arctic zone development strategy connected with the Northern Sea Route, but also to highlight the broad spectrum of human and environmental consequences of these activities. Among them, impacts on the economy (national and regional), the environment and population (effects caused by navigation activity and industrialization as well as risks for the coastal ecosystems and Indigenous people) will be assessed.
As the ice-coverage within the Arctic Region maintains a downward trend, extraordinary opportunities to capitalize on a plethora of untapped resources are looming. The promise for shorter voyages from Asia towards Europe and/or the Americas (and vice-versa) is also very enticing; navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and/or the Northwest Passage (NWP) is now more feasible. The analysis in hand will briefly discuss the so-called "Arctic Passages ". Considering that ice and ice-pacts will remain a concern in the future, the support of icebreakers will still be needed to facilitate the safe passage of ships. Mapping the current state of the particular types of vessels available is the main aim, with a particular focus on individual key players: the Russian Federation (RF), the United States of America (USA) and Canada. Finally, a critical evaluation of the respective needs for the future is taking place. For certain countries under examination, the current state of ice-breaking capabilities is somewhat disconcerting given the expected demand in the Arctic region in coming years coupled with the lengthy acquisition and production process required of a new ice-breaking fleet; their important escalation to cover the current gap is clearly a high priority.
IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE ARCTIC REGION AND WORLD TRADE ROUTES
PARADIGMA - Journal of Economics and Management Research, 2024
The Arctic region is increasingly recognized for its environmental changes and geopolitical importance caused by climate change. The Arctic has become a symbol of climate change in recent years, as rising temperatures worldwide have caused significant ice melt. The melting of Arctic glaciers presents opportunities and challenges for many countries in international politics. The environmental transformation experienced in the Arctic region is opening up new trade routes. It is also revealing previously inaccessible natural resources such as oil, gas, and minerals. Melting glaciers may increase global trade, but they also raise concerns about environmental degradation and geopolitical tensions. While melting glaciers create new avenues for trade and resource extraction, they are also causing geopolitical tensions between major powers. As polar ice caps melt and new sea routes emerge, the Arctic has become a focal point for global competition between major powers, particularly the United States, Russia, and China. This study presents the effects of the global melting in the Arctic region on maritime trade routes and the current and future economic and commercial competition between states in this area.
Arctic shipping scenarios and coastal state challenges
WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs, 2008
The Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum of the eight Arctic states, is currently embarked on a comprehensive assessment of Arctic marine activity in the 21 st centurythe Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA). One of the challenges for the AMSA study team has been to identify the major uncertainties that will be central to shaping the future of Arctic marine use in 2020 and 2050. Using scenario planning, AMSA has identified two primary drivers and uncertainties: (A) Resources and trade; and, (B) Governance. Four scenario narratives have been developed with these two, key uncertainties as the framework elements. The main arguments focus on the fact the Arctic has experienced globalization early in the century and that the global maritime industry has already ventured into the Arctic Ocean. Marine access in the Arctic Ocean is also changing in unprecedented ways and the extraordinary transformation Arctic sea ice is undergoing -thinning, extent reduction, and a reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central ocean -has significant implications for longer seasons of navigation. However, the high prices of global commodities such as oil, gas, and hard minerals (for example, copper, nickel and zinc) have generated high levels of demand for Arctic natural resources. The Arctic states are challenged by an overall lack of maritime infrastructure to adequately support current and future levels of Arctic marine operations; ports, communications, environmental monitoring, search & rescue, incident response, aids to navigation, and coastal charting, to name a few, require substantial and timely investment by the coastal states and marine operators. A second challenge is the ongoing development of an integrated system of rules and regulations governing Arctic navigation that will enhance marine safety and ensure marine environmental protection throughout the basin. These challenges will require historic levels of cooperation among the Arctic states and broad engagement with the many, non-Arctic stakeholders and actors within the global maritime industry.
The Russian and Norwegian Arctic are gaining notoriety as an alternative maritime route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and as sources of natural resources. The renewed interest in the Northeast Passage or the Northern Sea Route is fueled by a recession of Arctic sea ice coupled with the discovery of new natural resources at a time when emerging and global markets are in growing demand for them. Driven by the expectation of potential future economic importance of the region, political interest and governance has been rapidly developing, mostly within the Arctic Council. However, this paper argues that optimism regarding the potential of Arctic routes as an alternative to the Suez Canal is overstated. The route involves many challenges: jurisdictional disputes create political uncertainties; shallow waters limit ship size; lack of modern deepwater ports and search and rescue (SAR) capabilities requires ships to have higher standards of autonomy and safety; harsh weather conditions and free-floating ice make navigation more difficult and schedules more variable; and more expensive ship construction and operation costs lessen the economic viability of the route. Technological advances and infrastructure investments may ameliorate navigational challenges, enabling increased shipping of natural resources from the Arctic to global markets.
Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: an analysis of shipowners’ intentions
Journal of Transport Geography, 2011
The seasonal melting of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, which has been confirmed for several summers in a row and is widely documented, has become a hot topic in the media. It is fuelling many speculative scenarios about the purported renewal of a ''cold war'', or even an actual armed conflict, in the Arctic, for the control of both its natural resources and its sea routes.