Absolute numbers of lives saved and overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening, from a randomized trial and from the Breast Screening Programme in England (original) (raw)
Related papers
BMJ, 2000
Objective To assess the impact of the NHS breast screening programme on mortality from breast cancer in women aged 55-69 years over the period 1990-8. Design Age cohort model with data for 1971-89 used to predict mortality for 1990-8 with assumption of no major effect from screening or improvements in treatment until after 1989. Effect of screening and other factors on mortality estimated by comparing three year moving averages of observed mortality with those predicted (by five year age groups from 50-54 to 75-79), the effect of screening being restricted to certain age groups. Setting England and Wales. Subjects Women aged 40 to 79 years. Results Compared with predicted mortality in the absence of screening or other effects the total reduction in mortality from breast cancer in 1998 in women aged 55-69 was estimated as 21.3%. Direct effect of screening was estimated as 6.4% (range of estimates from 5.4-11.8%). Effect of all other factors (improved treatment with tamoxifen and chemotherapy, and earlier presentation outside the screening programme) was estimated as 14.9% (range 12.2-14.9%). Conclusions By 1998 both screening and other factors, including improvements in treatment, had resulted in substantial reductions in mortality from breast cancer. Many deaths in the 1990s will be of women diagnosed in the 1980s and early 1990s, before invitation to screening. Further major effects from screening and treatment are expected, which together with cohort effects should result in further substantial reductions in mortality from breast cancer, particularly for women aged 55-69, over the next 10 years.
Randomized study of mammography screening — preliminary report on mortality in the stockholm trial
Breast Cancer Research and Treatment, 1991
In March 1981, 40,318 women in Stockholm, aged 40-64, entered a randomized trial of breast cancer screening by single-view mammography alone versus no intervention in a control group of 20,000 women. The attendance rate during the first screening round was 81 per cent and the cancer detection rate was 4.0 per 1000 women. The detection the rate fell to 3.1 per 1000 in the second round, which was completed in October 1985. During 1986 the controlled design of the study was broken and the control women were invited once to screening which was completed the same year. A total of 428 cases of breast cancer were thus diagnosed in the study group and 439 in the adjusted control group. After a mean follow-up of 7.4 years the number of breast cancer deaths in the study and control groups was 39 and 30 respectively. The relative risk of breast cancer death (screening versus control) was 0.71 (95 per cent confidence interval: 0.4-1.2). Among women older than 50 years at entry the relative risk was 0.57 (95 per cent confidence interval: 0.3-1.1). Cancer deaths among women under 50 were few and perhaps because of this no mortality reduction was seen in this age group. The estimate of mortality reduction lies between the results from two earlier Swedish randomized controlled trials.
Increasingly strong reduction in breast cancer mortality due to screening
Breast Diseases: A Year Book Quarterly, 2012
BACKGROUND: Favourable outcomes of breast cancer screening trials in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in the launch of populationbased service screening programmes in many Western countries. We investigated whether improvements in mammography and treatment modalities have had an influence on the effectiveness of breast cancer screening from 1975 to 2008. METHODS: In Nijmegen, the Netherlands, 55 529 women received an invitation for screening between 1975 and 2008. We designed a case -referent study to evaluate the impact of mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality over time from 1975 to 2008. A total number of 282 breast cancer deaths were identified, and 1410 referents aged 50 -69 were sampled from the population invited for screening. We estimated the effectiveness by calculating the odds ratio (OR) indicating the breast cancer death rate for screened vs unscreened women. RESULTS: The breast cancer death rate in the screened group over the complete period was 35% lower than in the unscreened group (OR ¼ 0.65; 95% CI ¼ 0.49 -0.87). Analysis by calendar year showed an increasing effectiveness from a 28% reduction in breast cancer mortality in the period 1975 -1991 (OR ¼ 0.72; 95% CI ¼ 0.47 -1.09) to 65% in the period 1992 -2008 (OR ¼ 0.35; 95% CI ¼ 0.19 -0.64). CONCLUSION: Our results show an increasingly strong reduction in breast cancer mortality over time because of mammographic screening.
Journal of medical screening, 1996
To apply an indirect method for estimation of the breast cancer related excess mortality in the Swedish randomised mammography screening trials. Randomised trials on mammography screening have, in Sweden, been performed in the counties of Kopparberg (W) and Ostergötland (E), the so called WE study, and in the three largest cities in Sweden, Stockholm (southern part), Gothenburg, and Malmö. An overview of the trials was presented in the Lancet in 1993 and included 156,911 women in the invited group and 125,866 in the control group. The excess mortality in the breast cancer subgroups was estimated by indirect standardisation using official national cause of death statistics according to Statistics Sweden as a reference. The estimated reduction of the breast cancer related mortality was 24% for the whole group (40-74 years at randomisation). The corresponding figures for the age groups 40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years were 6%, 28%, and 34% respectively. The results are very similar to tho...
JNCI Monographs
The purpose of this overview is to estimate more precisely the long-term effect of mammography screening by adding four more years of follow-up to women aged 40-49 years in the four Swedish trials on mammography screening. Data from the four trials were merged and linked to the Swedish Cancer and Cause of Death Register for 1958-1993 and 1951-1993 respectively to identify date of breast cancer diagnosis and cause and date of death. The invited and control groups comprised 48,569 and 40,247 women respectively. At the December 1993 follow-up, 602 and 482 breast cancer cases were identified in the two groups respectively, of which 104 and 111 had breast cancer as the underlying cause of death. This corresponds to a relative risk (RR) of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.59-1.01) for the two groups. In the 40-44 age group at randomization, 94% of breast cancer patients in the study and 89% in the control group were diagnosed before the age of 50; however, among breast cancer deaths in this age group, only two in the invited and five in the control group died after age 50. At follow-up of women 40-44 years at randomization 208 women in the invited and 184 in the control group were reported to the Cancer registry with breast cancer. Out of these 195 (94%) and 163 (89%) respectively were reported before the age of 50. Further, the relative risk for the age group 40-44 years at randomization by age at follow-up was 1.11, 0.51 and 0.46 for the age groups 45-49, 50-54, and 55-59 at follow-up. This study shows a 23% reduction in the breast cancer mortality in women 40-49 years at randomization achieved from a median trial time of 7.0 years, a median follow-up time of 12.8 years, and a screening interval of 18-24 months. Almost all of the effect in the 40-44 year age group at randomization was due to screening before the age of 50.
British Journal of Cancer, 2020
BackgroundOver the past 30 years since the implementation of the National Health Service Breast Screening Programme, improvements in diagnostic techniques and treatments have led to the need for an up-to-date evaluation of its benefit on risk of death from breast cancer. An initial pilot case-control study in London indicated that attending mammography screening led to a mortality reduction of 39%.MethodsBased on the same study protocol, an England-wide study was set up. Women aged 47–89 years who died of primary breast cancer in 2010 or 2011 were selected as cases (8288 cases). When possible, two controls were selected per case (15,202 controls) and were matched by date of birth and screening area.ResultsConditional logistic regressions showed a 38% reduction in breast cancer mortality after correcting for self-selection bias (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.56–0.69) for women being screened at least once. Secondary analyses by age group, and time between last screen and breast cancer diagnosis ...
The Gothenburg breast screening trial
Cancer, 1997
Although there is evidence for a reduction in breast carcinoma mortality with mammographic screening, some doubts have been expressed, and there is still uncertainty regarding the age specific effects. The authors report on a randomized, controlled trial of mammographic screening for breast carcinoma that was conducted among 51,611 women (21,650 women who were invited to a screening [the study group] and 29,961 women in a control group) ages 39-59 years in Gothenburg, Sweden. Among women in the study group, the screening interval was 18 months. The screening phase of the trial took place in 1982-1991, and follow-up for breast carcinoma mortality continued until December 31, 1996. Mortality from breast carcinoma was analyzed using a Poisson regression model. Overall and age specific effects of invitation to mammography screening on breast carcinoma mortality were calculated. Three mortality effects were estimated: the effect on deaths from breast tumors diagnosed during the screening phase of the trial, as assessed by an independent Endpoint Committee (the EPC evaluation model); the effect on deaths from breast carcinoma diagnosed during the screening phase of the trial, as determined by data from the National Cancer Registry and the National Cause of Death Register (the SCB evaluation model); and the effect on deaths from all breast carcinomas diagnosed up to December 31, 1996, as determined by the National Cancer Registry and the National Cause of Death Register (the SCB follow-up model). A nonsignificant, 21% reduction in the rate of mortality from breast carcinoma with invitation to screening was observed using the EPC evaluation model (relative risk [RR], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.58-1.08; P = 0.14); and a borderline significant, 23% rate reduction was observed using the SCB follow-up model (RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-1.00; P = 0.05). Age specific analyses yielded greater mortality rate reductions for the groups of women ages 39-44 years, 45-49 years, and 55-59 years, but there was no mortality rate reduction in the group of women ages 50-54 years. The effects of invitation to mammographic screening on the incidence of lymph node-positive disease closely paralleled the effects of invitation on breast carcinoma mortality. The effect on breast carcinoma mortality was consistent with the effect on all-cause mortality, suggesting no bias in classification of cause of death. Breast carcinoma incidence in the study group was almost identical to the incidence in the control group after trial by screening had ended in the control group (RR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88-1.09; P = 0.7). The current results support the commonly observed 20-30% reduction in breast carcinoma mortality with invitation to screening. The impression that screening is less effective in women younger than 50 years may be an oversimplification. Age specific effects should be a target for further research.
Journal of medical screening, 2012
To assess the impact of population-based mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality in Europe, considering different methodologies and limitations of the data. We conducted a systematic literature review of European trend studies (n = 17), incidence-based mortality (IBM) studies (n = 20) and case-control (CC) studies (n = 8). Estimates of the reduction in breast cancer mortality for women invited versus not invited and/or for women screened versus not screened were obtained. The results of IBM studies and CC studies were each pooled using a random effects meta-analysis. Twelve of the 17 trend studies quantified the impact of population-based screening on breast cancer mortality. The estimated breast cancer mortality reductions ranged from 1% to 9% per year in studies reporting an annual percentage change, and from 28% to 36% in those comparing post- and prescreening periods. In the IBM studies, the pooled mortality reduction was 25% (relative risk [RR] 0.75, 95% confidence in...