The Export Performance of Vietnam: Some Evidence Based on US Imports (original) (raw)

Vietnam’s Export Competitiveness: Trade and Macroeconomic Policy Linkages

This study aims to identify macro and micro-economic measures that promote the international competitiveness and export growth of Vietnam, thereby raising living standards and improving welfare. Apart from investigating macro and micro-economic aspects affecting the trade environment, the study describes key characteristics of Vietnam’s export structure and performance over the last decade based on national and partner-country trade information, it analyzes static and dynamic aspects of Vietnam’s comparative advantage, it evaluates the compatibility of exports in their major markets, and it assesses the policy-performance links in the last decade to draw lessons for future trade and macroeconomic policies. The study is organized into the following components: Chapter 1 provides background information on Vietnam’s international competitiveness rankings, and reviews the coverage of the report. Chapter 2 describes the structure and geographic composition of Vietnam’s trade, based on data from both national statistical sources and Vietnam’s trading partners. Chapter 3 analyzes the comparative advantage of Vietnam relative to other Southeast Asian countries from both static and dynamic perspectives. Chapter 4 assesses key microeconomic factors affecting Vietnam’s export competitiveness in terms of production costs, export incentives, and domestic and partner country trade barriers. Chapter 5 evaluates Vietnam’s macroeconomic competitiveness associated with its real effective exchange rate and the real cross-exchange rate between Vietnam and its trading partners, and examines the impact of Vietnam’s international competitiveness on its exports in each of the major regional markets, as well as the global market. Chapter 6 provides summary of the major findings and some recommendations to improve Vietnam’s export competitiveness. Technical details on modeling trade and exchange rate movements, calculating effective rates of protection, and measuring revealed comparative advantage are included in the annex.

The Impact of Exports on Economic Growth in Vietnam

Journal of Economics and Business, 2020

In 2010, Vietnam achieved a total import-export turnover of US $ 154 billion, but by 2019, that number increased more than tripled, reaching over $ 500 billion. In 2020, while the context of complicated developments of the outbreak COVID-19 in the world, disrupting supply chain in international trade, Vietnam's merchandise exports remained the rising trend and exerted a positive impact on economic growth. In the article, the research team will present the results of examining the current situation of Vietnam's exports and economic growth in the period 2005 - 2019 and the first 9 months of 2020. By using Eview8 software to analyze the data series compiled every quarter in the period 2005 - 2019, the research team evaluated the impact of exports on Vietnam's economic growth in this period and pointed out some problems for export activities of Vietnam. Besides, the research team also considers the opportunities and challenges for export activities in the context of the COVI...

Determinants of Vietnamese Product Export to Asean Members

Journal of Economics and Development, 2017

This paper employs the gravity model to investigate and analyze the determinants of Vietnam’s exports to ASEAN countries over a period of nineteen years, from 1997 to 2015. The results show that the increase in the GDP of Vietnam and of trading countries, Vietnam’s population and the large population of importing countries, the change of real exchange rates, the regional free trade treaties that Vietnam signed, the shared borders and being landlocked with the importing countries, all have different influences on Vietnam’s export of different product groups. The results of this paper may be beneficial to the Vietnamese government and exporting companies in setting their export goals and policies.

Determinants of Vietnam’s Potential Trade: A Case Study of Agricultural Exports to the European Union

Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2019

This study aims at quantifying the determinants of Vietnam’s potential exports to the EU, taking agricultural commodities as a case study. In order to achieve this, we employed a stochastic frontier analysis to estimate Vietnam’s potential agricultural exports, and a system GMM approach to analyze the determinants of the estimated potential agricultural exports of Vietnam. The results showed that Vietnam’s potential agricultural exports to the EU have been high and on an upward trend. In addition, factors such as financial market development, trade freedom, technological readiness, and labor freedom have positive impacts on Vietnam’s potential agricultural exports to the EU. Measures to improve the financial market development, remove trade barriers, increase technological capability, and promote labour freedom are strongly suggested in order to enable Vietnam’s agricultural exports to attain its maximum level.

An Empirical Analysis of Export-Led Growth of Vietnam: Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Approach

Journal of Business and Management

This paper examines the long-run relationship between domestic value added exports and economic growth of Vietnam using ARDL bounds test of cointegration on annual data covering the period of 1995-2014.The bounds test establishes existence of both short-run and long-run relationship between exports and GDP of Vietnam and shows a substantial contribution of exports in the real GDP (0.73 percent for one percent changes in the domestic value added exports). The exports pattern of Vietnam portrays it following the footsteps of export-led growth model of Mexico, whereby it has turned itself into export production platforms for MNCs by suppressing the wages, rather than developing own indigenous industrial capacity. In such scenario, it seems challenging for Vietnam to sustain its export-led growth which it has achieved so far based on its cheap labour. With the rising living standards, ultimately the comparative advantages of cheap labour force would vanish in the future, which will caus...