Assessing open heart surgery mortality in Catalonia (Spain) through a predictive risk model 1 This study was carried out with the help of the Catalan Study Group on Open Heart Surgery. This study group was composed of the following surgeons as representatives of participating centers: A. Aris, E.... (original) (raw)

Assessing open heart surgery mortality in Catalonia (Spain) through a predictive risk model

European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, 1997

Objecti6e: To develop a risk stratification model to assess open heart surgery mortality in Catalonia (Spain) in order to use risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates as an approach to analyze quality of care. Methods: Data were prospectively collected through a specific data-sheet during 6 1 2 months in consecutive adult patients subjected to open heart surgery. The dependent variable was surgical mortality, and independent variables included were presurgical (sociodemographic data, clinical antecedents, morphological and functional studies) and surgical. The model was built on a subsample (70% of study population) through univariate and logistic regression analysis and validated in the rest of the sample. Results: The total sample was of 1309 procedures in seven hospitals; 47% of them were valve procedures. The overall crude mortality rate was 10.9% and varied among centers (range, 2.8-14.8%). Risk factors included in the model received a weight based on the logistic regression coefficient and a score was generated for each patient. The factors with the highest weight were patient older than 80 and second reoperation. Score was stratified in five categories of increasing risk. There was a good agreement between observed and predicted mortality rates in the validation group. Overall patient distribution was as follows: 52% low risk level, 16% fair, 13% high, 12% very high, and 6% extremely high risk level. Mortality rate increased from 4.2% in the low risk to 54.4% in the highest risk group. Case mix adjustment was performed through the risk score level. There were statistically significant differences in the risk profiles of patients admitted among centers. After adjustment by risk profiles, there were no differences in mortality by hospital. Conclusion: A risk stratification model through a multicentric, prospective and exhaustive collection of data in all types of open heart procedures was developed. In spite of wide differences on crude rates and in the risk profiles of patients admitted, we did not find statistically significant differences in adjusted mortality rates among centers. Timely and accurate information about surgical outcomes can lead to improvements in clinical practice and quality of care. © 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Comparison of 19 pre-operative risk stratification models in open-heart surgery

European Heart Journal, 2006

Aims To compare 19 risk score algorithms with regard to their validity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality after cardiac surgery. Methods and results Risk factors for patients undergoing heart surgery between 1996 and 2001 at a single centre were prospectively collected. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to describe the performance and accuracy. Survival at 1 year and cause of death were obtained in all cases. The study included 6222 cardiac surgical procedures. Actual mortality was 2.9% at 30 days and 6.1% at 1 year. Discriminatory power for 30-day and 1-year mortality in cardiac surgery was highest for logistic (0.84 and 0.77) and additive (0.84 and 0.77) European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) algorithms, followed by Cleveland Clinic (0.82 and 0.76) and Magovern (0.82 and 0.76) scoring systems. None of the other 15 risk algorithms had a significantly better discriminatory power than these four. In coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)-only surgery, EuroSCORE followed by New York State (NYS) and Cleveland Clinic risk score showed the highest discriminatory power for 30-day and 1-year mortality. Conclusion EuroSCORE, Cleveland Clinic, and Magovern risk algorithms showed superior performance and accuracy in open-heart surgery, and EuroSCORE, NYS, and Cleveland Clinic in CABG-only surgery. Although the models were originally designed to predict early mortality, the 1-year mortality prediction was also reasonably accurate.

Subjective Versus Statistical Model Assessment of Mortality Risk in Open Heart Surgical Procedures

surgical procedures Subjective versus statistical model assessment of mortality risk in open heart http://ats.ctsnetjournals.org/cgi/content/full/67/3/635 on the World Wide Web at: The online version of this article, along with updated information and services, is located Print ISSN: 0003-4975; eISSN: 1552-6259. Southern Thoracic Surgical Association. Background. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy for open heart surgical mortality between a statistical model based on collection of clinical data and surgeons' subjective risk assessment.

Cardiac Surgical Mortality

Archives of Surgery, 1998

To compare the performance of several riskscoring models to predict surgical mortality following open heart surgery. Design: A prospective observational study. Setting: Seven tertiary cardiac centers (3 private and 4 public and teaching hospitals) in Catalonia (Spain).

The operative risk stratification models in cardiac surgery: EuroSCORE II model - risk groups categorization

Vojnosanitetski pregled

Background/Aim. The treshold that defines a low, moderate or high-risk patients is not uniformly determined for the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE II) by literature at present. The aim of this study was to suggest risk groups categorization within EuroSCORE II risk statification model. Methods. A 7,641 consecutive patients were scored preoperatively using EuroSCORE II. The end point for the study was in-hospital mortality accross the risk group categories. Patients with EuroSCORE II values of ? 2.50, > 2.50?6.50%, and > 6.50% were defined to be at low, moderate, and high perioperative risk, respectively. Discriminative power of the model was tested by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The calibration of the model was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, and with observed/expected (O/E) mortality ratio. Results. Inhospital mortality observed in our sample was 3.85% (295 out of 7,641 patients). The ...

Cardiac surgery risk-stratification models

Cardiovascular Journal of Africa, 2012

Risk models are widely used to predict outcomes after cardiac surgery. Not only is risk modelling applied in the assessment of the relative impact of specific risk factors on surgical outcomes, but also in patient counselling, the selection of treatment options, comparison of postoperative results, and quality-improvement programmes. At least 19 risk-stratification models exist for open-heart surgery. The focus of risk models was originally on pre-operative prediction of mortality. However, major morbidity is in general more common than mortality and the ability to predict only operative mortality is not an adequate method of determining surgical outcome. Multiple intra-and postoperative variables have been excluded in the majority of models and the possible effect of their future inclusion remains to be seen. The unique patient population of sub-Saharan Africa requires a unique risk model that reflects the patient population and levels of care.

surgical procedures Subjective versus statistical model assessment of mortality risk in open heart

2010

Risk stratification in heart surgery: comparison of six score systems

European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, 2000

Objective: Risk scores have become an important tool in patient assessment, as age, severity of heart disease, and comorbidity in patients undergoing heart surgery have considerably increased. Various risk scores have been developed to predict mortality after heart surgery. However, there are signi®cant differences between scores with regard to score design and the initial patient population on which score development was based. It was the purpose of our study to compare six commonly used risk scores with regard to their validity in our patient population. Methods: Between September 1, 1998 and February 28, 1999, all adult patients undergoing heart surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass in our institution were preoperatively scored using the initial Parsonnet, Cleveland Clinic, French, Euro, Pons, and Ontario Province Risk (OPR) scores. Postoperatively, we registered 30-day mortality, use of mechanical assist devices, renal failure requiring hemodialysis or hemo®ltration, stroke, myocardial infarction, and duration of ventilation and intensive care stay. Score validity was assessed by calculating the area under the ROC curve. Odds ratios were calculated to investigate the predictive relevance of risk factors. Results: Follow-up was able to be completed in 504 prospectively scored patients. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis for mortality showed the best predictive value for the Euro score. Predictive values for morbidity were considerably lower than predictive values for mortality in all of the investigated score systems. For most risk factors, odds ratios for mortality were substantially different from ratios for morbidity. Conclusions: Among the investigated scores, the Euro score yielded the highest predictive value in our patient population. For most risk factors, predictive values for morbidity were substantially different from predictive values for mortality. Therefore, development of speci®c morbidity risk scores may improve prediction of outcome and hospital cost. Due to the heterogeneity of morbidity events, future score systems may have to generate separate predictions for mortality and major morbidity events. q

Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

Arquivos Brasileiros de Cardiologia, 2014

Background: The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. Objective: To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Methods: Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Results: Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Conclusion: Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

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