In Search of Shelter Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement (original) (raw)
Related papers
International Journal of Global Warming, 2015
As climate change impacts worsen, losses and damages incurred in both developing and developed countries will continue to increase. While enhancing mitigation and adaptation efforts will influence the level of loss and damage avoided in the future, historical emissions have 'locked in' a certain level of climate change, making some residual losses and damages inevitable. Loss and damage from slow onset processes like sea level rise will ultimately require some communities and, in some cases, entire countries to relocate. Through examples from Kiribati and Alaska this paper will highlight the complexity involved in migrating and relocating and recommend interventions for easing the resettlement process.
The rising tide: Migration as a response to sea level rise in vulnerable communities
As climate change impacts worsen, losses and damages incurred in both developing and developed countries will continue to increase. While enhancing mitigation and adaptation efforts will influence the level of loss and damage avoided in the future, historical emissions have 'locked in' a certain level of climate change, making some residual losses and damages inevitable. Through examples from Kiribati and Alaska this paper will highlight the complexity involved in migration and relocating and recommend interventions for easing the resettlement process.
Sea-level rise and human migration
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to impact, and, in many cases, displace, a large proportion of the population via inundation and heightened SLR-related hazards. With the global coastal population projected to surpass one billion people this century, SLR might be among the most costly and permanent future consequences of climate change. In this Review, we synthesize the rapidly expanding knowledge of human mobility and migration responses to SLR, providing a coherent roadmap for future SLR research and associated policy. While it is often assumed that direct inundation forces a migration, we discuss how mobility responses are instead driven by a diversity of socioeconomic and demographic factors, which, in some cases, do not result in a migration response. We link SLR hazards with potential mechanisms of migration and the associated governmental or institutional policies that operate as obstacles or facilitators for that migration. Specific examples from the USA, Bangladesh and atoll island nations are used to contextualize these concepts. However, further research is needed on the fundamental mechanisms underlying SLR migration, tipping points, thresholds and feedbacks, risk perception and migration to fully understand migration responses to SLR.
Assessing the impact of sea-level rise on a vulnerable
Climate change and its associated sea-level rise are expected to significantly affect vulnerable coastal communities. Although the extent of the impact will be localised, its assessment will adopt a monitoring approach that applies globally. The topography of the beach, the type of geological material and the level of human intervention will determine the extent of the area to be flooded and the rate at which the shoreline will move inland. Gleefe, a coastal community in Ghana, has experienced frequent flooding in recent times due to the increasing occurrence of storm surge and sea-level rise. This study used available geospatial data and field measurements to determine how the beach topography has contributed to the incidence of flooding at Gleefe. The topography is generally low-lying. Sections of the beach have elevations of around 1 m, which allows seawater to move inland during very high tide. Accelerated sea-level rise as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will destroy homes of the inhabitants and inundate the Densu wetlands behind the beach. Destruction of infrastructure will render the inhabitants homeless, whilst flooding of the wetlands will destroy the habitats of migratory birds and some endangered wildlife species such as marine turtle. Effective adaptation measures should be adopted to protect this very important coastal environment, the ecology of the wetlands and the livelihoods of the community dwellers.
Meeting the looming policy challenge of sea-level change and human migration
Nature Climate Change, 2019
Minimizing the adverse consequences of sea-level change presents a key societal challenge. New modelling is necessary to examine the implications of global policy decisions that determine future greenhouse gas emissions and local policies around coastal risk that influence where and how we live.
2014
"The implications of global warming have become increasingly clear. Yet, great inconsistencies are emerging amongst the world’s nations as to their policy responses to the perceived threats from global warming and other environmental changes. The consensus view that once may have existed in some nations and imposed on others, appears now to be breaking down. Exceedingly costly socio-economic policy mistakes will be the inevitable corollary of this world-wide scientific consensus breakdown as the policy responses of the different nations change in how they adapt to climate change risks. These inconsistent responses are now visible all over the world. A good example is the costly decision by Germany to demolish all their nuclear power facilities (due to the perceived flooding risks by the sea) in the aftermath of the Fukushima incident in Japan; whereas the UK is introducing new nuclear facilities in the Bristol Channel, where flooding risks are high and a tsunami struck in 1607. As a result of immensely costly policy decisions by Germany and the UK, thousands of people in both countries are already on the move in search of new homes and jobs: some to build nuclear reactors, while some wish to remove them for the ‘good’ of our environment. Similar examples are found across the world in many different situations due to the climate-driven uncertainties. A major source of uncertainty is the sea level. If Arctic meltdown proceeds unchecked, then some scientists say that we could have several metres of sea level rise, even by mid-century. This is very problematical for low-lying conurbations. For example Egypt is considering rebuilding Cairo inland in order to allow evacuation of the Nile Delta in case ofsea level rise. Furthermore, the disappearance of sea ice in summer may enhance the break-off of large volumes of ice from the Greenland ice sheet, sufficient to cause tsunamis in the North Atlantic. What is an appropriate response? "
Environment and Urbanization, 2007
Settlements in coastal lowlands are especially vulnerable to risks resulting from climate change, yet these lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. In this paper, we undertake the fi rst global review of the population and urban settlement patterns in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defi ned here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. Overall, this zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world's population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. A disproportionate number of the countries with a large share of their population in this zone are small island countries, but most of the countries with large populations in the zone are large countries with heavily populated delta regions. On average, the Least Developed Countries have a higher share of their population living in the zone (14 per cent) than do OECD countries (10 per cent), with even greater disparities in the urban shares (21 per cent compared to 11 per cent). Almost twothirds of urban settlements with populations greater than 5 million fall, at least partly, in the zone. In some countries (most notably China), urbanization is driving a movement in population towards the coast. Reducing the risk of disasters related to climate change in coastal settlements will require a combination of mitigation, migration and settlement modifi cation.
Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas
Scientific Reports
Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.