Measuring the Effect of Direct Democracy on State Policy: Not All Initiatives Are Created Equal (original) (raw)
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Numerous studies attempt to assess direct democracy's impact on state policy using measures of direct democracy based on dummy variables or the frequency with which initiatives appear on a state's ballots. We offer an alternative to these measures that accounts for how rules governing the initiative process vary among the states. We replicate several studies using different measures of direct democracy and demonstrate that the results of hypothesis tests can be contingent on how these institutions are measured. We contend that commonly used dummy variable measures of state direct democracy have validity problems and that hypothesis tests using such measures produce imprecise estimates of the initiative's effect on policy.
Measuring The Effects of Direct Democracy on State Policy and Politics
We assess the current state of research testing for effects of direct democracy on state policy and politics. We compare theories about effects of ballot initiatives to several measures used to operationalize them, and develop measures of the initiative process that better account for variation in how the institution is structured in each state. Existing theory is used to assess the validity of these measures. We also replicate several studies using different measures of direct democracy, and demonstrate that results of hypothesis tests are often contingent on how institutions of are measured. Our results demonstrate that commonly used dummy variable measures suffer validity problems, and hypothesis tests using such measures may under-estimate the initiative's effects on state policy.
Agenda Setting by Direct Democracy: Comparing the Initiative and the Referendum
Using research on the initiative as a point of comparison, we consider how frequently and for what ends state legislators use the referendum. Akin to initiative use, we find that legislators are constrained by procedural hurdles in their ability to place referendums on the ballot. However, in contrast to research on the initiative, which emphasizes the role of interest groups as the drivers of initiatives, our analysis suggests that referendum use is motivated by partisan legislative majorities seeking to achieve a mix of political and policy goals.
Election Reform and Direct Democracy
American Politics Research, 2002
Changes in rules governing how legislators seek office, such as term limits, open primary laws, and regulations on campaign contributions, might not always find majority support in a state legislature. Direct democracy provides groups advocating such policies with an extra method for shaping the public agenda, a method that is absent in noninitiative states. This may lead initiative states to implement different electoral laws than noninitiative states. We test if direct democracy is associated with the regulations a state places on contributions to legislative candidates. We find that states with frequent initiative use placed more restrictions on contributors between 1984 and 1998 and that initiative states were more likely than noninitiative states to increase regulations on contributions from political parties and political action committees.
Estimating the Effect of Direct Democracy on Policy Outcomes: Preferences Matter!
… Center for International Development Working Paper, 2005
Previous studies have found large negative effects of direct democracies on government spending. Since they do not control for differences in the taste for government, these estimates suffer from omitted variable bias. Using voting data from Switzerland, we document substantial preference heterogeneity across direct democratic regimes. Conditional on voter preferences, the effect of direct democracy on government expenditures declines by more than 40 percent compared to earlier estimates. The main effect of the mandatory budget referendum is however to decentralize expenditures. While access to direct democracy at the canton level decreases canton expenditures by 8 percent, it raises local expenditures by 20 percent. The net effect on the size of canton and local governments combined is zero. Our results support the view that voter preferences have a strong and persistent influence on policy outcomes both in states with more and less direct democratic regimes.
State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 2001
This study uses a three-state survey to examine how state legislators and legislative candidates view the ballot initiative process. We hypothesize that state legislators see the initiative as a rival to the legislature, and that the initiative is evaluated in terms of expectations about policy outcomes. We test whether opinions about the initiative are related to legislative incumbency, partisan interests, or both. We find that incumbents, regardless of party, are more interested in constraining the initiative than non-incumbents. We also find an independent effect of partisanship, with Republicans having a more positive view of the initiative than Democrats.
The eclipse of legislatures: Direct democracy in the 21st century
Public Choice, 2005
Demographic, political, and technological trends are fueling an unprecedented growth in direct democracy worldwide. If the trends continue, direct democracy threatens to eclipse legislatures in setting the policy agenda. This article reviews existing scientific knowledge about the initiative and referendum -the main institutions of direct democracy -and highlights key issues for the future.