India's Pragmatic Vaccination Strategy Against COVID-19: A Mathematical Modelling Based Analysis (original) (raw)

Objectives To investigate the impact of targeted vaccination strategies on morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19, as well as on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2, in India. Design Mathematical modelling. Settings Indian epidemic of COVID-19 and vulnerable population. Data sources Country specific and age-segregated pattern of social contact, case fatality rate and demographic data obtained from peer-reviewed literature and public domain. Model An age-structured dynamical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in India incorporating uncertainty in natural history parameters was constructed. Interventions Comparison of different vaccine strategies by targeting priority groups such as key workers including health care professionals, individuals with comorbidities (24 - 60 year), and all above 60. Main outcome measures Incidence reduction and averted deaths in different scenarios, assuming that the current restrictions are fully lifted as vaccination is implemented. Results The priority g...