Predicting change in biogeochemical potential of subsurface systems with changing hydrogeological conditions (original) (raw)

2021

In a changing climate scenario, we expect weather event patterns to change, both in frequency and in intensity. The subsequent impacts of these changing patterns on ecosystem functions are of great interest. Water quality particularly is critical due to public health concerns. Already, seasonal variation of water quality has been attributed to varying microbial community assemblages and nutrient loading in the corresponding water body but the contribution of the variations in the quantity of groundwater recharge is a missing link. It is thus beneficial to establish links between external forcing such as changing infiltration rate or recharge on nutrient cycling in the subsurface. We undertake this study to investigate the impact of temporal variation in external forcing on the biogeochemical potential of spatially heterogeneous subsurface systems using a numerical modeling approach. We used geostatistical tools to generate spatial random fields by considering difference combinations...

Can the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources be studied without the use of transient models

Burgeoning cities and a changing climate impose extraordinary stresses on the management of global water supplies. Groundwater flow models can greatly assist pro-active decision making, but their practical application to date has been largely limited to steady-state scenarios that conveniently ignore aquifer storage. In future, aquifer models will prove invaluable for optimizing the use of groundwater resources and confronting the impacts of climate change, but they must be run in " transient mode " that fully incorporates time-variant inflows and outflows. This will impose additional data demands in the form of reliable specific yield values, together with good temporal information on precipitation, potential evaporation , groundwater levels and streamflows. Lack of adequate field data to " fuel " predictive models is emerging as the greatest constraint on tackling groundwater problems caused by climate change. Les impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eaux souterraines peuvent-ils être étudiés sans avoir recours aux modèles transitoires? Résumé La croissance urbaine et le changement climatique imposent des stress extraordinaires sur la gestion des approvisionnements en eau à l'échelle globale. Les modèles d'écoulement hydrogéologique peuvent fortement aider à la décision proactive, mais leur application pratique a jusqu'à présent été largement limitée à des scénarios pseudo-stationnaires qui ignorent par souci de simplification le stockage dans l'aquifère. Dans le futur, les modèles d'aquifère vont se révéler être inestimables pour optimiser l'utilisation des ressources en eaux souterraines et pour assumer les impacts du changement climatique, mais devront être utilisés en mode transitoire pour incorporer pleinement la variabilité temporelle des flux entrants et sortants. Cela imposera des exigences supplémentaires en données sous la forme de valeurs fiables de débit spécifique, ainsi que de bonnes informations temporelles sur les précipitations, l'évaporation potentielle, les niveaux piézométriques et les écoulements en rivières. L'absence de données de terrain adéquates pour alimenter les modèles de prévision émerge comme étant la plus grande contrainte vis-à-vis de la résolution des problèmes hydrogéologiques causés par le changement climatique.

Should We Worry About Surficial Dynamics When Assessing Nutrient Cycling in the Groundwater?

Frontiers in Water

The fluxes of water and solutes in the subsurface compartment of the Critical Zone are temporally dynamic and it is unclear how this impacts microbial mediated nutrient cycling in the spatially heterogeneous subsurface. To investigate this, we undertook numerical modeling, simulating the transport in a wide range of spatially heterogeneous domains, and the biogeochemical transformation of organic carbon and nitrogen compounds using a complex microbial community with four (4) distinct functional groups, in water saturated subsurface compartments. We performed a comprehensive uncertainty analysis accounting for varying residence times and spatial heterogeneity. While the aggregated removal of chemical species in the domains over the entire simulation period was approximately the same as that in steady state conditions, the sub-scale temporal variation of microbial biomass and chemical discharge from a domain depended strongly on the interplay of spatial heterogeneity and temporal dyna...

Large scale surface–subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves

NGWA …, 2009

Estimating the impacts of climate change on groundwater represents one of the most difficult challenges faced by water resources specialists. One difficulty is that simplifying the representation of the hydrological system often leads to discrepancies in projections. This study provides an improved methodology for the estimation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater reserves, where a physically-based surface–subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin (465 km2), Belgium. Coupled surface–subsurface flow is simulated with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere. The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the defined evaporative zone, improve the representation of interdependent processes like recharge, which is crucial in the context of climate change. More simple models or externally coupled models do not provide the same level of realism. Fully-integrated surface–subsurface flow models have recently gained attention, but have not been used in the context of climate change impact studies. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 emission (medium–high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were downscaled using a quantile mapping bias-correction technique that, rather than applying a correction only to the mean, forces the probability distributions of the control simulations of daily temperature and precipitation to match the observed distributions. The same corrections are then applied to RCM scenarios for the future. Climate change scenarios predict hotter and drier summer and warmer and wetter winters. The combined use of an integrated surface–subsurface modelling approach, a spatial representation of the evapotranspiration processes and sophisticated climate change scenarios improves the model realism and projections of climate change impacts on groundwater reserves. For the climatic scenarios considered, the integrated flow simulations show that significant decreases are expected in the groundwater levels (up to 8 m) and in the surface water flow rates (between 9% and 33%) by 2080.

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