Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Underground Mine Excavations (original) (raw)

Prediction and Uncertainties in Geological Engineering and Rock Mass Characterization Assessments

Geological prediction will always involve uncertainty. Good predictive techniques rely on an adequate data-base of relevant information. In practise, it is difficult, if not impossible, to generate a sufficienfly reliable model of ground conditions that prediction can be carried out with 100% certainty. Methods of empirical assessment ofrock conditions and use of probabilistic evaluation and design techniques hold the most promise for improving current approaches for support and excavation design. Such evaluation methods also allow better quantification of risk and hence, they in turn help to reduce claims by increasing general awareness of potential ground control problems.

Use of joint trace data to evaluate stability of mining excavations, and validation against underground observations

2012

Mining is a sensitive business that yields high returns and at the same time is associated with high risk of injuries/fatalities and potential losses of revenue. There is increasing intolerance for injuries and fatalities by governments and the other stakeholders involved in the mining business often resulting in mine closures and revenue loss. Chief among the mining risks is the occurrence of rockfalls where people work and access. The rockfalls are bound mainly by joints that intersect the rockmass thereby forming rock blocks that may fall once an excavation has been created.

Stochastic Stability Analysis of Tunnels Considering Randomness of Rock Mass Properties

2022

DOI:10.22044/jme.2021.11310.2113 The purpose of this work is to present an approach for the probabilistic stability analysis of tunnels considering the heterogeneity of geo-mechanical properties. A stochastic procedure is followed to account for the variability in the rock mass property characterization. The finite difference method is coupled with the Monte Carlo simulation technique to incorporate the randomness of rock mass properties. Moreover, a particular performance function is defined to investigate the excavation serviceability based on the permissible deformations. In order to validate the analysis, the probabilistic and the deterministic results are compared with the in-situ measurements. It can be observed that in both the probabilistic and deterministic analyses the largest displacements occur in the invert. In contrast, the smallest displacements are recorded in the sidewalls. Utilizing the performance function, the probability of failure for the invert, crown, left, a...

The Probabilistic Estimation of Rock Masses Properties in Malmberget Mine, Sweden

Electronic Journal of Geotechnical Engineering

Numerical modeling techniques have been applied in many mining and civil engineering projects. Traditionally, deterministic methods have been used frequently for the estimation of design or input parameters for numerical modeling. Whereas, it is known that the effect of variability and uncertainty sourced from the complex and variable nature of rock cannot be considered by deterministic approaches using single or mean value. In this paper, the authors tried to apply a probabilistic approach to consider the uncertainties and variability in rock properties. This is to make more a realistic assessment of design parameters of rock masses around an instrumented test drift in Malmberget Mine within the content of the "Rock mass -Rock support interaction project" conducted at the Division of Mining and Geotechnical Engineering, Lulea University of Technology. To calculate the design parameters GSI of rock mass, UCS and m i constant of the intact rock are considered as random vari...

A New Stability Approach using Probabilistic Profile along Direction of Excavation

Journal of Mining and Environment, 2020

Estimation of the possible instability that may be encountered in the excavation slope(s) during the planning and application steps of the rock excavation processes is an important issue in geoengineering. In this paper, a modelling method is presented for assessing the probability of wedge failure involving new permanent or temporary slope(s) along the planned excavation direction. The geostructural rock slopes including wedge blocks are determined geometrically in the first step. Here, a structural data analysis system that includes a series of filterings, sortings, and linear equations used to reveal the necessary geometric conditions for the wedge form is developed and used. The second step involves the 3D visualization and Factor of Safety (FS) using the limit equilibrium analysis of wedges on both the actual and planned new excavation surfaces. The last step is the Monte Carlo simulation, which is used in assessing the instabilities on the actual and planned new excavation sur...

Case Study: Stability Assessment in Underground Excavations at Vazante Mine - Brazil

Soils and Rocks

Currently, most studies on stability of underground excavations include two separate analyses: the elastoplastic behavior of rock masses and/or kinematic analysis of possible wedges and blocks formed in the excavation walls. This paper presents a case study carried out at the Vazante Zinc Mine in Minas Gerais, Brazil, where studies on stability of underground excavations in discontinuous media included survey reports, laboratory tests and in-situ collected data. In this context, where galleries and mining stopes are excavated in discontinuous media, collapse events caused by the presence of discontinuities are common. First, the spatial orientation, geometric arrangement and mechanical characteristics of the discontinuities intercepted by the core samples were collected. The spatial orientation was based on guide layers, which are discontinuities with known dip direction and variable and dip. The geotechnical characteristics of the discontinuities were obtained by correlation with the roughness degree and the nature and weathering degree of the filling material. From there, the geological-geotechnical models were developed, which were the basis for the finite element analysis in discontinuous media of the designed excavations in the sections 13225 and 13300, between levels 210 and 345 of the mine. For comparison and complementation, wedge kinematic analysis and finite element analysis in equivalent continuous media were performed and, later, an arrangement for the reinforcement system was suggested. The results of these studies show that, in general, continuous models tend to be more conservative and have wider deformation zones, while discontinuous models are able to show in more detail where the displacements occur, and how the families of discontinuities affect the stability of excavations.

Probabilistic Methods in Geotechnical Engineering

Uncertainty is a fact of life in geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering practice. Nature in its complexity offers soil profiles often very different from those assumed in analysis and design; loads and environmental conditions likewise defy accurate prediction; and limited sampling, measurement errors and shortcomings of analysis procedures further complicate the engineer's task. Probabilistic methods, complementing conventional analyses, provide the means for quantifying and communicating degrees of uncertainty, evaluating data acquisition strategies, and assessing hazard mitigation measures. The methods range from probabilistic site characterization, which involves quantifying the variability and heterogeneity of stratigraphy and material properties, to risk-based decision analysis, which provides a framework for identifying the kinds and degrees of risk involved in a project, and the consequences should "failure" occur, and evaluating the effectiveness of alternative actions (in site exploration, design, construction, or monitoring) aimed at controlling or reducing risks. These lecture notes for the Workshop on Probabilistic Methods in Geotechnical Engineering present basic concepts of probabilistic modeling, along with many examples of how they can be used to deal with uncertainties inherent in site characterization and geotechnical performance prediction, safety assessment and monitoring. The notes progress through increasingly complex methodology, starting with the basics of event and fault trees, through single and multiple random variables, to fundamentals of random fields and geostatistics. Among the applications considered: rock slope maintenance, clay barrier containment, proof testing of piles, and predicting differential settlement.

The damage-failure criteria for numerical stability analysis of underground excavations: A review

Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2021

Failure of rock mass in deep underground excavations could be attributed to a broad range of performance malfunction, from plastic yielding of rock, generation of macro cracks on the boundary of the excavation, gravity driven rockfalls or even complete stress-induced collapse. The failure criteria determine the stress level (or strain level) at which the rock mass loses its load-carrying (or strain-carrying) capacity. Determination of the state of underground stability can be successfully achieved through implementation of appropriate failure criteria within the numerical analyses' tools. The choice of failure criteria in numerical stability analysis plays a key role in defining the behaviour of an underground excavation. A failure criterion will be useful only if selected based on the correct mechanism of failure. Plus, a right choice of failure criterion, significantly reduces the errors of quantifying an excavations behaviour. Therefore, this paper offers a critical review of the most common stress-based and strain-based failure criteria used in numerical stability analysis of underground excavations. Particular attention is paid to characterize different mechanisms of underground failure and recommendations are formulated for each failure mode. In addition, this paper addresses the theoretical considerations for the applicability of different failure criteria and highlights the practical limitations for their numerical implementation.