1 Accelerating Guyana’s Growth Momentum (original) (raw)

Accelerating Guyana’s Growth Momentum

Developing Country Studies, 2012

Guyana has been able to reverse decades of economic decline and stagnation with five consecutive years of robust growth during the period 2006-2010. The study probes whether Guyana has finally turned the corner. The study finds that good policies as well as good luck explain much of the recent growth. In particular, improved governance, sound macroeconomic management and favourable terms of trade have been the key growth propellers. The paper offers strategies to further accelerate growth in the medium to long term, which include increasing economic dynamism, fully exploiting and better utilising natural resources, and strengthening and entrenching good governance.

Issues in Guyana's Development

Although it has been more than a century since the Guyana and Venezuela border dispute was settled, Venezuela continues to shift its foreign policy away from compliance with its international obligations. It is approximately 128 years since diplomatic relations were severed between Venezuela and Great Britain over the border issue. At the insistence of Venezuela, the United States considered the controversy as falling within the purview of the Monroe Doctrine. Consequently, the United States pressured Great Britain into making an Agreement with Venezuela in 1897. This Agreement averted a war between the two major powers in the world. The essence of the agreement was to submit the dispute to arbitration under the Treaty of Washington. Both sides agreed that the findings of the arbitration tribunal would be accepted as a “full, perfect, and final settlement.” Today, Venezuela still does not consider the controversy settled and has consistently made claims against Guyana’s territory and shifted its foreign policy away from adjudicating the outstanding issues with Guyana. The Geneva Agreement of 1966 was signed as a direct result of the actions taken by Venezuela on the floor of the General Assembly of the United Nations. The Agreement was specifically designed to address the issue raised by Venezuela. That issue arose as a direct result of the unilateral declaration of Venezuela that the Arbitral Award of 1899 was “null and void.” However, the Agreement clearly stipulated that “no new claim, or enlargement of an existing claim, to territorial sovereignty in those territories shall be asserted while this Agreement is in force.” In this publication, this author will show that Guyana has claimed systemic violations of the terms and conditions of the Agreement. Unlike Venezuela which is over two centuries old, it has been 49 years since Guyana gained its independence from Great Britain. Since that time, there have been several challenges to the country’s development. This author will highlight some of these challenges and seek to map out a way forward with special reference to issues pertaining to its borders with Venezuela. The operating premise is that a country’s development objectives are best attained if there is a stable political climate. Such a climate will then produce an environment which is conducive for business and economic development. Some of the developing countries of the world have addressed similar issues presented here and have been able to find common ground. They fashioned a way forward and have successfully attained higher per capita incomes, when compared with Guyana. This anomaly has occurred notwithstanding that Guyana is considered to be a richly endowed country. This author will demonstrate how the border controversy has compromised the security and sovereignty of he affected countries, and has undermined business confidence, with devastating consequences for development.

Trade liberalization and economic growth in Guyana

80th International Atlantic Economic Conference, 2015

This paper uses econometric techniques in the area of time series analysis to examine the relationship between economic performance and trade liberalization in Guyana. For this study, the base model underlying the analysis is a traditional per worker production function that has been augmented to include trade liberalization and other factors like human capital and exports. The results from this study suggest that when viewed from the long-run and short-run perspective trade liberalization has enhanced the economic performance of Guyana. Indeed, in this study both measures of trade liberalization-the average import tariff rate and the dummy variable representing the change in quota and import licensing measures, among other things-were statistically significant and correctly signed.

Reflecting on Development Outcomes: A Comparative Analysis of Barbados and Guyana

2010

This study undertakes a critical comparative analysis of the post-independent development outcomes between Barbados and Guyana. Specifically, the antecedents of the marked economic divergences during the period 1970-1999 are investigated. The study finds that differences in economic and structural policies, years of social and political discord and institutional weaknesses in Guyana account for the marked divergence in development outcomes during the period. In assessing more recent performance, the study finds that improvements in the areas of macroeconomic consolidation and institutional strengthening as well as greater social cohesion and political stability have allowed Guyana’s growth rates to catch up and even surpass Barbados’. The research evinces key lessons from the Barbados/Guyana experience that should support the more even development of countries in this region, especially in the context of the Caribbean Single Market and Economy objective.

Strengthening of Guyana’s Fiscal Framework in Anticipation of an Oil Boom

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An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid Flows to Guyana

The paper examines issues related to the effectiveness of foreign aid in Guyana. The general view in development literature is that providing sufficient amounts of development finance to underdeveloped areas will create the conditions necessary for long-term economic growth and development. However, given the chequered history of foreign aid it has become necessary to reassess the effectiveness of foreign aid and to identify means of maximising its benefits. To examine the relationship between aid and growth, the analysis utilises a times-series technique referred to as the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration developed by Pesaran and Shin. Data for Guyana covering the period 1978-2002 is used in the analysis. This period is selected because of both the completeness of the data set for all variables, and the emergence of the economy from a deep trough brought about by years of inward-looking economic policies and further economic contraction brought about by structural adjustment measures which began in the late 1980s as a means of achieving high and sustained economic growth. The results indicate that there was no significant long run relation between aid and growth in the Guyana context. The insignificance of the aid variable in Guyana’s context may be partially explained by certain factors that impacted on the economy, such as excessive emigration of skilled and educated personnel, low capacities of many national institutions, and socio-political instability. The results, however, showed positive and significant coefficients for foreign direct investment, domestic savings and exports which were all included in the model.

Changes to the Economic Status of the Caribbean's Novice Oil Producer - Guyana

None., 2020

Being in the spotlight for its major oil discoveries over the past five (5) years, growing speculations of Guyana being the richest country or classed with the likes of great states such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, etc. has been very popular by many oil and gas analysts. The oil giants, ExxonMobil, and its partners are optimistic about the potential gains of Guyana’s estimated recoverable reserves of 6 billion barrels of sweet crude oil. Guyana is very familiar with the exploitation of its natural resources, but its growth has been challenged by mismanagement, weak institutions, and weak enforcing mechanisms. This resource, crude oil, seems to be the last hope for Guyana, one of the poorest nations in the Western Hemisphere, to return to its former glory and status in the Caribbean. Its citizens, within the country and the diaspora, are greatly anticipating a better standard of living, better public services, and improved infrastructure or in their familiar term, ‘the good life’. Therefore, this research will try to predict the changes to Guyana's economic status via its prospective growth as a result of being an oil producer. Keywords: Crude Oil, Economic Status, Natural Resources, Oil Discoveries