Chancellor Hegemony: Party Politics and the Bundestag Party System after the 2013 Federal Election (original) (raw)
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politicians and commentators have been talking about the extraordinary importance of the forthcoming European Parliament elections for the future of the EU. The expected decline in support for the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, combined with the gains expected for parties opposed to European integration, will lead to major changes in the way the parliament functions, and of the EU as a whole. The two largest European parties will probably not be capable of forming a stable coalition, and this in turn could affect who takes up the chief posts in the EU. The results of the European elections could have repercussions for the ability of the grand coalition in Berlin to survive, and decisions regarding individuals in the CDU and SPD. For the German parties, this election is also the most important test before the autumn elections in three eastern federal Länder-in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thüringen. In addition, on 26 May, at the same time as the European elections, elections will be held for seats in the regional parliament in Bremen. For the SPD, loss of power in this federal state would present a major challenge, because the Social Democrats have been in power there for 74 years. More severe conflict and debate can be expected as to whether the CDU/CSU and SPD are to continue ruling collectively. If a minister of justice from the SPD wins a seat in the EP, this could lead to changes in Chancellor Angela Merkel's government. It is possible that a reshuffle of Angela Merkel's cabinet would involve appointment of CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.
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The article assesses the socio-structural underpinnings and systemic dynamics of the contemporary German party system and identifies four phenomena. These are, first, an increased level of fractionalisation that has made it more difficult small parties to assume the 'kingmaker' or 'pivot' role; second, the continued strengthening of a twobloc dynamic; third, the emergence and persistence of the new territorial cleavage in the united Germany; and finally, a skew in the party system to the left that has shifted the position of the median legislator. It is argued that all these changes have served to reassert the dominance of the two Volksparteien and have been particularly advantageous to the SPD. The article concludes by arguing that the outcome of the 2005 federal election can thus be seen as very much in keeping with these trends.
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Abstract: Over the last thirty years, the German party system has undergone four types of change:(1) a decline in the overall vote and seat share for the two 'Volksparteien'(CDU/CSU, SPD);(2) an increased level of fragmentation in the party system;(3) a skew in the party ...
politicians and commentators have been talking about the extraordinary importance of the forthcoming European Parliament elections for the future of the EU. The expected decline in support for the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, combined with the gains expected for parties opposed to European integration, will lead to major changes in the way the parliament functions, and of the EU as a whole. The two largest European parties will probably not be capable of forming a stable coalition, and this in turn could affect who takes up the chief posts in the EU. The results of the European elections could have repercussions for the ability of the grand coalition in Berlin to survive, and decisions regarding individuals in the CDU and SPD. For the German parties, this election is also the most important test before the autumn elections in three eastern federal Länder-in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thüringen. In addition, on 26 May, at the same time as the European elections, elections will be held for seats in the regional parliament in Bremen. For the SPD, loss of power in this federal state would present a major challenge, because the Social Democrats have been in power there for 74 years. More severe conflict and debate can be expected as to whether the CDU/CSU and SPD are to continue ruling collectively. If a minister of justice from the SPD wins a seat in the EP, this could lead to changes in Chancellor Angela Merkel's government. It is possible that a reshuffle of Angela Merkel's cabinet would involve appointment of CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.