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Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia
Journal of Water and Climate Change
This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in climate and its implications for rainfed agriculture in the Rib watershed, north-western highland Ethiopia from 1986 to 2050. The daily rainfall and temperature records for the period 1986–2017 were used to detect the variability and trends of the current climate using the coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index, Mann–Kendall test, and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hand, future climate changes (2018–2050) were analyzed based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) model outputs under under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed high inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall and temperature in the studied watershed over the last four decades. The annual and Kiremt (June–September) rainfall showed a generally increasing trend, while the Belg (March–May) rainfall exhibited a decreasing tren...
The impact of climate change on agriculture and food production is manifested through alterations in agro-ecological factors. The region of sub-Saharan Africa is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change and variability, given its reliance on rainfall-dependent agriculture and inadequate adaptive capabilities. The objective of this study was to analysis of the characterization of climate change and its impacts on smallholder farmers in eastern Ethiopia. Historical daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature in 1991-2021 years of 12 weather station were collected from National Meteorological Institute of Ethiopia and NASA/POWER. Data quality control, trend test and outlier detection test were used. Climate characterization (onset, cessation, LGS and Dry/wet spell length) and precipitation concentration index were examined. The earliest, and latest start of rainy season in Kombolcha and Haramaya were 81DOY (March 21) and 225DOY (August 13) within mean 130DOY and 125DOY, respectively. In study area the minimum and maximum length of growing period of was recorded in Chinakesen and Haramaya by the values of 32DOY and 253DOY (Days of the year) respectively. In this arid and semi-arid areas, growing period was recorded under the short season crop maturity while long cropping season maturity does no satisfy crop water requirement due to moisture stress. The coefficient of variation of length of growing season from Mieso and Chinakesen were 36.2% and 47.9% which implies that the areas were highly vulnerable to climate extreme events of drought. Length of growing season (LGS) of Gemechis district was decreasing by a factor − 2.533 shows highly significant at alpha value of 0.05 confidence level. Dry spell length probability occurrence of 5 days during the main cropping rainy season is significantly very high. The 30 years of data record suggests that a 29-48% precipitation concentration index of kiremt (JJAS) and belg (FMAM) seasonal rainfall which are demonstrating irregular precipitation. kiremt (JJAS) rainfall trend tests of Babile, Kurfa chale and Mieso districts were increasing by a factor of 2.016, 2.043 and 2.117, respectively and statistically significant at 95% confidence level, in the time period of 1991-2021 years. If furtherstudy will be examined climate extreme indices and adaptation strategies designed to simulate the impacts and variability of climate change in the study area.
Atmosphere
Smallholder farmers in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia frequently face problems of climate extremes. Knowledge of past and projected climate change and variability at local and regional scales can help develop adaptation measures. A study was therefore conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and temperature in the past (1988–2017) and projected periods of 2030 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) at selected stations in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia. To detect the trends and magnitude of change Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed, respectively. The result of the study indicated that for the last three decades annual and seasonal and monthly rainfall showed high variability but the changes are not statistically significant. On the other hand, the minimum temperature of the ‘Belg’ season showed a significant (p < 0.05) increment. The mean annual minimum temperature is projected t...
Climate
Using gridded daily temperature and rainfall data covering 30 years (1988–2017), this study investigates trends in rainfall, temperature, and extreme events in three agro-ecological settings in central Ethiopia. The Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to examine the trends and slope of changes in climate indices. The profile of farmers whose perception converges with or diverges from meteorological data was characterized using polling. The average annual temperature has increased by 0.4 and 0.3 °C per decade in the lowland and midland areas, respectively. Average annual rainfall has increased only in the midland areas by 178 mm per decade. Farmers’ perception of increasing temperature fairly aligns with meteorological data. However, there is a noticeable difference between farmers’ perception of rainfall and meteorological data. The perception of farmers with poor economic status, access to media, and higher social capital aligns with measured trends. Conversely, t...
Analyzing Impacts of Climate Variability and Changes in Ethiopia: A Review
Review Article, 2020
Climate change is a global problem of this century but its impact is higher in low-income countries like Ethiopia, which has limited capacity to cope with the effects because the country's economy is based on agriculture that directly affected by the impact of climate change. Subsequently, Ethiopia has been facing severe droughts at least twice per decade and several sever flood hazards. Most of the studies confirmed that the country's annual temperature is increasing with about 0.37˚C whereas the rainfall has no clear trend and there is high variability with the rising frequency of floods and droughts. The climate changes projection indicated increasing in temperature by 2.2°C and 3.
Trend Analysis and Adaptation Strategies of Climate Change in North Central Ethiopia
Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action both at national and global level. Climate change is a key emerging threat to the lives and livelihoods of the rural poor in Ethiopia. Adaptation to climate change is a two-step process, which initially requires the perception that climate is changing and then responding to changes through adaptation. This study was conducted in selected rural kebeles of Bahir Dar Zuria district. The study employed both qualitative and quantitative methodologies and triangulation of data. It tried to show the significance of climate change by using forty-nine years of temperature and rainfall data, which were processed using XLSTAT software, in addition to the socio-economic data collected to assess the perception of farmers. Analysis of the historical cli...
Climate Change and Variability Impacts on Crop Productivity and its Risk in Southern Ethiopia
2021
Climate change and variability coupled with weak utilization of agricultural technologies led to lower agricultural production and productivity in southern Ethiopia. Climate change mainly increases temperature, change of rainfall pattern, precipitation and its short and long-term variability affects agricultural production and productivity. Given the technological and institutional conditions, in southern Ethiopia, the yield of major crops has not shown significant change in productivity over the years. Based on time series, and secondary data, this research aimed to address the crop productivity trend and the likely impact of climate change and variability on crop productivity. The study covered Sidama, Walaita, Gurage, Hadiya, Gamo Gofa, and Halaba. Time series climatological and secondary data of major crop yields used as data sets. Mean difference tests to show the trends, and stochastic production function to analyze the likely impacts of climate change on crop yield were emplo...