On the Evasion of Executive Term Limits (original) (raw)
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Presidential Term Limit Contravention: Abolish, Extend, Fail, or Respect?
Comparative Political Studies, 2019
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010414019830737 Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted by many states during the third wave of democratization, 221 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their term(s) in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits, resulting in either full abolition, one-term extensions, or failure. What explains these divergent trajectories? I argue that trends in electoral competition over time best predict term limit outcomes, with non-competitive elections permitting full abolition, less-competitive elections allowing for one-term extensions, and competitive elections leading to failed bids. This is because electoral trends provide informational cues to the president's co-partisan legislators and constitutional court judges (the actors who ultimately rule on constitutional term limit amendments) about the cost/benefit analysis that voting to uphold or repeal term limits would have on their own political survival. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally. Note: The following files were submitted by the author for peer review, but cannot be converted to PDF. You must view these files (e.g. movies) online. McKie Term Limits Replication data for CPS.dta McKie Term Limits Replication Stata do file for CPS.do Abstract: Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted by many states during the third wave of democratization, 221 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their term(s) in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits, resulting in either full abolition, one-term extensions, or failure. What explains these divergent trajectories? I argue that trends in electoral competition over time best predict term limit outcomes, with non-competitive elections permitting full abolition, less competitive elections allowing for one-term extensions, and competitive elections leading to failed bids. This is because electoral trends provide informational cues to the president's co-partisan legislators and constitutional court judges (the actors who ultimately rule on constitutional term limit amendments) about the cost/benefit analysis that voting to uphold or repeal term limits would have on their own political survival. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally. During the rewriting of national constitutions in states across the world during the " third
Comparative Continuismo: Presidential Term Limit Contravention across Developing Democracies
Kellogg Institute for International Studies, University of Notre Dame, Working Paper #425, 2017
Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted into many constitutions during the third wave of democratization, 207 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their terms in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits whereas 70% have stepped down in compliance with tenure rules. Furthermore, of the presidents who have attempted to alter tenure restrictions, some have succeeded in fully abolishing term limits, others have only managed a one-term extension, while a minority have failed in their bids to secure any additional terms in office. What explains these divergent trajectories? On the basis of a series of statistical analyses, I argue that trends in electoral competition over time are the best predictor of the range of term limit contravention outcomes across the board, with the least competitive elections permitting full term limit abolition and the most competitive elections saving off attempts at altering executive tenure rules. Furthermore, results show that failed contravention attempts are true borderline cases, rather than instances gross miscalculations of success by the president and her party, in that they feature less competitive elections than non-attempt cases but more competitive elections than successful contravention cases. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally.
Initiatives to change or sidestep presidential term limits are often presented as a response to popular demand, yet tend to be deeply polarizing and may even lead to violence. Opinion on the legality of changing term limits tends to be sharply divided not only in the country concerned but also among the international community. In an effort to fine-tune policy debate, this paper looks at the normative framework relating to term limits and their removal. It recommends that, in the absence of clear international norms, the issue be approached as a matter of maintaining confidence in a country’s electoral process and political system. This means focusing on the process by which term limits might be amended or interpreted.
Presidential Term Limits and Regime Types: When Do Leaders Respect Constitutional Norms?
Africa Spectrum, 2021
Why do some leaders respect constitutional provisions like presidential term limits, while others do not? For all regimes, constitutions are important reference texts that provide some basic rules of the game. Within this framework, term limits and electoral laws are crucial because they are directly concerned with the exercise of power. Using Geddes’ regime typology, this article is proposing a regime-oriented approach to explain the variation on the African continent. Democracies, party-based regimes, and military regimes are surely different from each other, but they have a degree of depersonalisation in common that is not found in personalist regimes. For the latter type, term limits are a question of regime survival. Personalist rulers will therefore seek to amend or ignore constitutions, but their success will depend on the cohesion of their ruling coalition. The argument will be illustrated with two case studies: Togo and Tanzania.
Presidential Term Limits and the International Community
Oxford University Press, 2019
Proposed changes to presidential term limits are almost always highly contested, and have attracted international and regional attention from many external actors including governmental organizations (IGOs), and international non-governmental organisations (INGOs). A central question that faces these external actors is the extent to which it is legitimate to take a position in presidential term limit debates. When they have engaged the question, external actors have increasingly focused on the relationship between stability, conflict prevention, constitutionalism and democracy. This chapter considers the policy concerning presidential term limits of three major IGOs, the UN, the AU and the OAS, each of which has had considerable involvement in countries where term limit changes have been linked to conflict. It further discusses the way in which IDEA, an IGO with a softer mandate, has responded to the debate on term limits, as well as the output of a number of other international actors like the Venice Commission, ECOWAS, DRI, the Carter Center and the West African Civil Society Forum (WACSOF). This review of international actors’ responses to the question of presidential term limits suggests an increasing international consensus that, in countries with a history of authoritarianism and weak democratic institutions, presidential term limits can play an important role in strengthening democratic processes and reducing the likelihood of conflict. Importantly, justifications for raising concerns about the removal of term limits are gradually moving from the safer space of demanding that constitutionally established processes be used to more outspoken condemnation of proposals to remove or weaken term limits based on a recognition of the dangers of prolonged incumbency and its links to democratic backsliding.
Respecting and circumventing presidential term limits in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparative survey
African Affairs, 2019
This article offers a survey of political dynamics surrounding the issue of presidential term limits in a large sample of Sub-Saharan African countries over a long period of time. It examines empirically how political regimes have dealt with this issue by observing or circumventing limits, and it links these developments with the democratic quality in the countries at the time they occurred. Beyond legal texts, this study examines the empirical reality of term limits. It finds that effective term limits are less prevalent in practice than in constitutional texts. This is followed by an analysis of the incumbency bias, showing that incumbents who run often win at the election, but that transfers of power are more frequent in the absence of an incumbent. The article then considers the cost-benefit analyses leaders engage in when deciding to stay or to go, as well as the risks of overstaying. Domestic protest and international pressure generally have a limited impact on this choice. Th...
The Machinery of International Law and Democratic Backsliding: The Problem of Term Limits
Law & Ethics of Human Rights, 2020
Our era is one of democratic backsliding. International courts and institutions have provided some bulwark against this trend, but we are now witnessing leaders seeking to use international law to extend their power. Courts in several countries have relied on international human rights norms to facilitate term limit extensions by leaders seeking to retain power beyond what is constitutionally allowed. This Article documents these cases and calls for a more robust and substantive international law of democracy-protection.