Fertility Decline in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 1972–2000 (original) (raw)
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RAPID FERTILITY DECLINE IN IRAN: ANALYSIS OF INTERMEDIATE VARIABLES
Journal of Biosocial Science, 2008
The remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total fertility rate fall from 7 children per woman in 1986 to 2 in 2000, has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and Bongaarts' age-specific fertility model, this paper examines the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the rapid decrease in fertility in Iran. The analysis indicates that contraception had the largest effect on fertility, accounting for 61% of the reduction in fertility from its theoretical maximum. The fertility-inhibiting effect of marriage patterns accounted for an additional 31% reduction, and was most important among the young. Further analysis of contraceptive behaviour suggests that the current period fertility rate of 2·0 children per woman is an outcome of a synchronization of delaying and spacing of births among younger women with stopping of childbearing among women in the middle and late reproductive ages. The policy implications of the results are discussed.
Education and the world's most rapid fertility decline in Iran
2008
A first analysis of the Iran 2006 census results shows a sensationally low fertility level of 1.9 for the whole country and only 1.5 for the Tehran area (which has about 8 million people). The lowest total fertility rate of 1.3 was recorded for Gilan and Mazandaran provinces. In a recent study, Abbasi-Shavazi and McDonald (2006) emphasized the likely role of greatly improved female education in this trend. However, this hypothesis has not been thoroughly tested and they have not yet provided any formal analysis on this important factor. In the conclusions they express the expectation that fertility in Iran would continue to fall well below replacement level. This paper follows up on the Abbasi-Shavazi and McDonald (2006) paper in two important ways: 1) It presents fertility estimates based on the 2006 census which indicate a substantial further fertility decline; and 2) it presents reconstructions (back to 1970) and projections (to 2030) of the population of Iran by age, sex and level of educational attainment. It decomposes quantitatively to what extent this precipitous fertility decline can be attributed to the rapidly increasing educational attainment of women, and draws more general conclusions for theories of fertility decline.
Factors Affecting Fertility Rate in Iran (Panel Data 1966-2013): A Survey Study
Journal of Family & Reproductive Health, 2017
Objective: Population and its corresponding problems are among multidimensional and complicated issues of human communities and their related features are the basis for making any plan or policy. Fertility, as one of the principle components of population growth, is an issue that has always been taken into consideration and extensive research has been carried out to recognize factors affecting on it. Therefore, the authors decided to study the most important factors influencing fertility rate in Iran by conducting a longitudinal study and considering the effect of various time periods on its population changes. Materials and methods: This is a descriptive-analytic study. Its required information is a combination of cross-sectional and time series data (panel data) that were extracted from 1966 to 2013 from Iran’s population categorized by the country’s 24 provinces and from statistical yearbooks of Statistical Center of Iran and Organization of Civil Registration. The final estimati...
Journal of Health, Population, and Nutrition, 2021
Background The total fertility rate (TFR) in the Middle East and North Africa has experienced a declining trend in recent years. Accordingly, the present study was conducted to provide a clear picture of the most critical factors affecting the TFR decline in this region. Methods This study was a systematic review between the years 2000 and 2016. The different databases like Cochrane, PubMed, Scopus, and Science Direct and the Google Scholar search engine were used. At first, 270 articles and then 18 articles were selected and meticulously read for the final analysis. Results The results indicated a declining trend in the TFR in the Middle East and North Africa, as in other parts of the world. Regarding the causes of this declining trend, several factors were identified and categorized into five main factors of health care-related, cultural, economic, social, and political. Conclusions While taking advantage of the experiences, it is necessary to identify the five main factors and th...
Fertility, Marriage, and Family Planning in Iran: Implications for Future Policy
Population Horizons, 2016
The Islamic Republic of Iran has experienced a remarkable demographic transition over the last three decades. As a result of social, demographic and economic changes, Iran’s fertility declined from 7.0 births per woman in 1980 to around 1.8 to 2.0 in 2011 based on our estimation (McDonald et al. 2015). The initial rise and rapid fall of fertility accompanied by a decline of child mortality led to a post-revolutionary youth bulge in the age distribution that will lead to rapid ageing in the longer-term future. Others have argued that Iran’s fertility has fallen to much lower levels - as low as 1.5 births per woman (eg. Erfani 2013). Such low estimates led to the Government of Iran adopting a pronatalist policy with the aim of increasing fertility, although the components of the policy are still under discussion. Different views have been expressed on the role of family planning and other programs in meeting population policy goals in Iran in the future with some advocating the discon...
A solid international legal framework for family planning supports national family planning programs. Yet it is not by itself a program guarantee, especially among Muslim nations, many of which have stalled FP transitions and weak or absent government assistance for FP programs. The success of Iran’s family planning program, therefore, is all the more noteworthy. Since its establishment in 1993, it has been one of the most successful state family planning (FP) programs in the world, having reduced the national annual growth rate from 2.7% in the late 1960s to little over 1% currently. This paper explores international and national legal, institutional, demographic, and cultural-geographical influences that may have contributed to its results.