Single European Market after Brexit1 (original) (raw)
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Single European Market after Brexit
Studia Europejskie, 2018
Present economic situation in the EU after the crisis of 2008–2010, escalating protectionism among EU Member States, voices in favour of re-industrialization of the EU economy in a traditional style of the 1970s and the 1980s, and the British leadership in services and new business models are the most important challenges for the future development of the EU Internal Market, as well as for the EU economy, as a whole. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to evaluate changes in the structure of the EU economy and intra EU trade in the context of Brexit. To this end, we will analyse changes in values and shares of selected sectors directly linked to the EU Internal Market in value added and intra EU trade in 2010–2014. Moreover, in order to grasp potential consequences of Brexit, we will compare data for the EU-28 and the EU-27 (without the UK). Our research allows us to conclude that Brexit may result in reduced supply of innovative and business services with the highest added value in favour of higher shares of regular manufacturing sectors within the internal market of the EU (both in value added and intra EU-27 trade). Therefore, after the UK leaves, the EU-27 will lose its competitiveness and a strong position in intra EU trade vis-à-vis third countries.
The Implications of Brexit for UK and EU Regional Competitiveness
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
Any form of Brexit will impact heterogeneously in terms of sectors and regions on the competitiveness of firms in both the UK and Europe. The ongoing uncertainty about the conditions under which the UK will be leaving the EU, creates difficulties in structurally estimating these impacts. Using uniquely-detailed interregional trade data on goods and services for the EU, we apply a novel methodology that disentangles region-sector sensitivities (elasticities) of firms' competitiveness to (non)tariff barriers from the implications of different post-Brexit UK-EU trade scenarios. This enables us to derive the impact of Brexit on the competitiveness of firms along with the degree of uncertainty that surrounds these impacts, independently from the scenarios. Our analysis demonstrates that the adverse international competitiveness shocks on UK firms are much larger than those on the rest of the EU due to the dependency of the UK on the EU via global value chains. The competitiveness shocks mean that within the UK, Brexit is likely to increase both interregional inequalities and also intra-regional inequalities. In contrast interregional inequalities across Europe may actually fall, depending on the nature of the post-Brexit UK-EU trading arrangements.
The Development of EU and EU Member States' External Competitiveness
We revisit EU competitveness scores using post-crisis data. While EU market share were at their 2000 level in 2007, they deteriorated afterwards, even for high-end and high-tech products. EU exports still embody 85% of value added created in the EU, despite increasing fragmentation of value chains. Therefore European exports are still predominently "Made in Europe". EU manufacturing exports increasingly include value added in services. Competitveness in services is an important determinant of future European industry. This working paper is based on a research commissioned by the Commission of the European Communities (specifi c contract n° SI2.630108). The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not represent any offi cial view of the Commission. The paper is complemented by an online appendix replicating the results of the paper taking account of intra-EU trade (not included in the main text), and providing results (with and without intra-EU trade) for individual Member States.
Trade, Businesses, and Economy of U.K. Post-Brexit— A Quantitative Analysis
International Journal of Latest Engineering and Management Research (IJLEMR), 2023
Many studies have been carried out on Brexit’s economic impact on the UK, EU27, the US, and the rest of the world. Depending on the assumption of whether Brexit will be a hard Brexit or a soft Brexit, almost all studies predicted Blows to the economies of the UK and the EU, with a more severe blow to the UK economy. With the Trade Co-operation Agreement signed by the end of the year 2020 and the actual divorce of the UK from the EU with effect from 01-01-2021, the actual effects of Brexit came to reflect in various economic data reported by various national and international agencies. This paper makes an effort to analyse these hard data and examine the Brexit impacts on various sectors. It has also taken clues from the various surveys on the problems faced by businesses on the border, shortage of labour, etc. In February 2023, a protocol on Northern Ireland was finalized which became a part of the EU-UK withdrawal agreement that now ensures that a hard border is avoided for the UK ...
A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies
2019
This paper reviews a sample of studies on the long-term impact of Brexit on GDP and welfare for both the UK and EU economies. It considers only official and academic studies published before the end of November 2018. The paper highlights the very wide range of results, especially for the UK, reflecting great uncertainty. The negative economic impact is more limited for the EU27 and for most Member States. Small open economies closely related to the UK are more hit than others. This is the case for Ireland due to geographical proximity, for Luxembourg with its economy specialising in financial services and for Cyprus and Malta as they are Commonwealth countries. When only the trade channel of Brexit is estimated, GDP (or welfare) losses are around 1 percentage point of GDP in the Netherlands and in Belgium while these average 0.6 percentage point of GDP in the EU27. For a same Brexit scenario, the results depend on the model specifications, on the channels considered and on some key ...
An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27. 22 March 2017
2017
This paper, managed by the Policy Department on Economic and Scientific Policies for the Committee on Internal Market and Consumer Protection, assesses the likely impact of Brexit on EU27, together with some scenarios for the terms of the UK’s secession. For the EU 27, the losses are found to be virtually insignificant, and hardly noticed in the aggregate. By contrast, for the UK, the losses could be highly significant, over ten times greater as a share of GDP. Impacts on various Member States – in particular Ireland – and sectors in the EU27 could be more pronounced.
2017
The process of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union, as a result of the 2016 referendum, brings a lot of uncertainties regarding the impacts of new regulations of trade relations between the UK and other EU member states as well as other countries worldwide. The purpose of this research is, based on a review of the UK's history as an EU member, and the analyses of its current international trade, to determine the potential effects of the process of the UK leaving the European Union to its future trade with the rest of the world. In this paper, four different models by which further trade relations between the United Kingdom and EU could be regulated are discussed. Each of these models has its advantages and disadvantages, and it is not possible to determine with certainty which one of them would be the most beneficial for the UK. Even though a large number of UK's trade partners are not EU members, it is evident that the trade with other countries worldwide can easily be a subjected to change. For that reason, the United Kingdom should primarily base its trade on relations with EU member states, with the assumption of further cooperation with other counties.
The Future of the EU Internal Market
2015
respond to the global phenomena, which were not foreseen in the beginning of 90s. unblock the potential of the service sector closely related to European industry, which should result in an improvement of innovation, competitiveness and job creation. To this end the EU should, inter alia.: o refrain from any restrictions against offshoring while disseminating and applying European values (environmental, social) across the world to secure a level playing field for all entrepreneurs; o support outsourcing as a method of cost reduction for entrepreneurs and an open field for expansion of other EU companies from the service sector with products dedicated and tailored to expectations of demand; o facilitate ‘servitization’ as a method of increasing the competitiveness of EU companies, offering their goods in an innovative way, i.e. together with services and with manufactures from outside the EU; o introduce voluntary standards on services, which could be used first of all by small a...
Mapping the UK domestic and global value chains from a Brexit perspective
This paper aims at offering background information for a sectoral analysis of the Brexit implications on the UK value chains. It analyses trade data through the specific angle of interindustrial relationships and international supply chains, including employment implications. The paper benchmarks UK against other key G-20 countries for three specific industries that have a particular relevance from an inter-industrial perspective: Transport equipment, Chemicals and Electronics. In the process, a number of stylised facts are identified and several synthetic indicators are produced. Because a hard Brexit is expected to increase trade costs and affect prices, the paper estimates the impact of additional tariff and non-tariff trade costs on the competitiveness of these three sectors. Hopes that a devaluation of the Pound may compensate for higher trade costs must take into consideration that devaluation affects only the domestic share of the value-added, requiring larger exchange rate adjustment. In the case of Transport equipment, the required devaluation is around 30% if all tariff and non-tariff trade costs are passed to the producers.
The Evolving Composition of Intra-EU Trade
wiiw Research Reports, 2016
Global trade in goods and services was severely hit by the economic crisis in 2008, which initiated a pronounced but short-lived trade collapse. Until 2011 trade flows recovered relatively quickly, but since then global trade in goods has been rather anaemic. This development is partly the result of the low dynamics of EU-related trade which accounts for a large share of global trade flows. Regarding intra-EU trade a strong increase in overall bilateral trade intensities is observed. The process of EU integration before the crisis and differentiated growth patterns of goods and services exports implied that exporting activities became slightly less concentrated across EU Member States. However, specialisation dynamics implied an increasing geographic clustering and specialisation of goods and services exports across Europe. These changes in the geographical patterns of intra-EU trade activities were mostly driven by changes in the patterns of trade in the medium-quality segment whic...