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Debt Overhang in the Eurozone: A Spatial Panel Analysis

The debt overhang hypothesis suggests that high debt levels retard prospects for GDP growth. We investigate the impact that debt overhang has had on recent GDP growth in the Eurozone, paying particular attention to the spillover effects that debt has on neighboring countries. We argue that in the Eurozone spatial effects are of crucial importance in modeling regional GDP growth, and find that a Spatial Durbin model is appropriate. We find strong evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis, confirming a concave relationship that has been found in other studies where low levels of debt can have a positive impact on GDP, but at some level a "turning point" occurs. The present study finds that this turning point occurs at a lower Debt/GDP ratio than found in prior studies, and separates out the direct and indirect (spillover) effects on neighboring countries' GDPs.

Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective

IMF Working Papers, 2018

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950-2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consumption when negative shocks hit. Second, increases in household debt heighten the probability of future banking crises, which significantly disrupts financial intermediation. Third, crash risk may be systematically neglected due to investors' overoptimistic expectations associated with household debt booms. In addition, several institutional factors such as flexible exchange rates, higher financial development and inclusion are found to mitigate this impact. Finally, the tradeoff between financial inclusion and stability nuances downside risks to growth.

A Global House of Debt Effect? Mortgages and Post-crisis Recessions in Fifty Economies

SOM Research Reports, 2015

The composition of private debt matters to the severity of post-2007 recessions. Using new data on four types of bank credit over 2000-2012 for 51 economies in OLS and Bayesian averaging models, we find that changes in the share of household mortgage credit in total credit before the crisis are significantly associated with recession depth and growth loss after the 2007 crisis. This finding is robust to a wide range of control variables and to the different responses across advanced and emerging economies. The evidence also suggests that mortgage growth combined with increasing bank leverage was particularly damaging to output growth. We discuss policy implications and future research.

Unstable Debt/GDP Dynamics as an Early Warning Indicator

2005

In this paper we develop a simple neoclassical growth model with perfect international capital mobility to analyze the stability of the differential equation in the foreign debt/GDP dynamics of developing countries in general and Korea, Malaysia and Thailand in particular in the long run using data over the period 1960-2000, and to use it as a counterfactual for bad times. We show that three different regimes can be distinguished: a stable steady state debtor regime, a stable steady state creditor regime and an unstable regime. A switch from a stable debtor or a stable creditor position to an unstable creditor regime with an increasing debt/GDP ratio is a sign of forthcoming trouble. We investigate this issue empirically for the three Asian countries in the run-up to the 1997 Asia crisis. Over the full sample, the evidence suggests that debt dynamics evolved according to the stable debtor case in each country with an equilibrium value of zero for Malaysia but positive ones for Korea and Thailand. Using a rolling regression technique, we find that indeed occasional switches to the unstable regime occurred. We demonstrate that all three countries investigated here were facing deteriorating domestic fundamentals -reflected in a movement towards unstable debt/GDP dynamics -some years prior to the breakout of the Asia crisis. As such, our approach appears to offer an interesting early warning indicator -the vanishing stability and appearance of instability in the differential equation of the debt/GDP ratio -for financial (debt) crises that should be used together with others for countries with fixed exchange rates.

DEBT AND GROWTH NEW EVIDENCE FOR THE EURO AREA

Against the background of the euro area sovereign debt crisis, our paper investigates the relationship between public debt and economic growth and adds to the existing literature in the following ways. First, we use a dynamic threshold panel methodology in order to analyse the non-linear impact of public debt on GDP growth. Second, we focus on 12 euro area countries for the period 1990-2010, therefore adding to the current discussion on debt sustainability in the euro area. Our empirical results suggest that the short-run impact of debt on GDP growth is positive and highly statistically significant, but decreases to around zero and loses significance beyond public debt-to-GDP ratios of around 67%. This result is robust throughout most of our specifications, in the dynamic and non-dynamic threshold models alike. For high debt-to-GDP ratios (above 95%), additional debt has a negative impact on economic activity. Furthermore, we can show that the long-term interest rate is subject to increased pressure when the public debt-to-GDP ratio is above 70%, broadly supporting the above findings.

Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dramatically compromised. Furthermore, we find the debt trajectory can be as important as the debt level in understanding future growth prospects, since countries with high but declining debt appear to grow equally as fast as countries with lower debt. Notwithstanding this, we find some evidence that higher debt is associated with a higher degree of output volatility. JEL Classification Numbers: H63, O40

Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?1

2014

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dramatically compromised. Furthermore, we find the debt trajectory can be as important as the debt level in understanding future growth prospects, since countries with high but declining debt appear to grow equally as fast as countries with lower debt. Notwithstanding this, we find some evidence that higher debt is associated with a higher degree of output volatility.

Quantiles of growth – household debt and growth vulnerabilities in Finland

2021

We analyze the relationship of the distribution of future GDP growth and accumulation of household debt in Finnish macroeconomic data from 1980 to 2019. We find clear evidence that exuberant accumulation of household debt is related to the thickening of the left tail of the future growth distribution, while reaction in the right tail of the distribution is more damped. Thus, there is a link between rapid household debt growth and increase in probabilities of more severe downturns. We also re-establish the result of Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) that, on average, rapid household debt accumulation is associated with slower subsequent economic growth. While the relationship of the debt growth and negative tail effects is robust along our sample period, the association between debt growth and median of the GDP growth distribution varies from significantly negative to zero, depending on the estimation sample and especially if the Finnish Great Depression of early 1990’s is included. JEL ...

Household Debt and Country Economic Growth: Does a Magic Threshold Exist?

International Journal of Business and Society

Average household debt has now surpassed the level of 2008, which signals an increase in systemic risk and thereby the fragility of the financial system. This paper investigates the effect of household debt on 24 countries’ economic growth. In addition, we also examine whether a tipping point of debt exists. By employing the threshold method, we found that the impact of household debt on a country’s economic growth is negative. Because the relationship between debt and growth is a monotonically non-increasing function, we do not find a magic threshold of debt.