Comorbidities have a limited impact on post-transplant survival in carefully selected cirrhotic patients: a population-based cohort study (original) (raw)
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Annals of Gastroenterology
Background Little is known about the prognostic ability of post-liver transplantation (LT) model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score measurement in assessing long-term outcomes. The aim of the present study was to investigate this possible relationship. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, the medical records of LT recipients operated under a LT program were reviewed. The accuracy of post-operation MELD score for predicting mortality was evaluated based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Univariate and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess the risk factors associated with mortality. Results Eight hundred twenty-six consecutive LT recipients were included in the study. The areas under the ROC curve on postoperative days (POD) 5 and 9 for predicting 1-year mortality were 0.712 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.614-0.811) and 0.682 (95%CI 0.571-0.798), respectively. A cutoff point of 14.5 was obtained for MELD score on POD5 that significantly differentiated between survivors and non-survivors with a sensitivity of 69.8% (95%CI 50.7-83.1) and a specificity of 57.2% (95%CI 50.6-63.6). In the Cox multivariate analysis, factors including MELD score on POD5 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.83, 95%CI 1.07-3.12; P=0.026), pre-transplant MELD (HR 1.064, 95%CI 1.025-1.104; P=0.001) and operation duration (min) (HR 1.004, 95%CI 1.003-1.006; P=0.013) were identified as independent risk factors for predicting overall survival. Conclusion The immediate postoperative MELD scores after LT may be of value in predicting mortality and could be used as a tool for postoperative risk assessment of patients.
Scoring short-term mortality after liver transplantation
Liver Transplantation, 2010
Liver transplantation can prolong survival and improve the quality of life of patients with end-stage liver disease. This study retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 149 patients who had received liver transplants in a tertiary care university hospital from January 2000 to December 2007. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were recorded. Each patient was assessed by 4 scoring systems before transplantation and on postoperative days 1, 3, 7, and 14. The overall 1-year survival rate was 77.9%. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score had better discriminatory power than the Child-Pugh points, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and RIFLE (risk of renal dysfunction, injury to the kidney, failure of the kidney, loss of kidney function, and end-stage kidney disease) criteria. Moreover, the SOFA score on day 7 postliver transplant had the best Youden index and highest overall correctness of prediction for 3-month (0.86, 93%) and 1-year mortality (0.62, 81%). Cumulative survival rates at the 1-year follow-up after liver transplantation differed significantly (P < 0.001) between patients who had SOFA scores 7 on post-liver transplant day 7 and those who had SOFA scores > 7 on post-liver transplant day 7. In conclusion, of the 4 evaluated scoring systems, only the SOFA scores calculated before liver transplantation were statistically significant predictors of 3-month and 1-year posttransplant mortality. SOFA on post-liver transplant day 7 had the best discriminative power for predicting 3-month and 1-year mortality after liver transplantation.
Factors That Predict Survival in Patients With Cirrhosis Considered for Liver Transplantation
Transplantation Proceedings, 2008
To identify prognostic factors for survival at 6 and 12 months in patients evaluated for liver transplantation using Child-Pugh (CP) classification and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score.We evaluated 144 patients with cirrhosis who were candidates for liver transplantation. We excluded patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, recent liver recipients, and patients who died because of factors unrelated to liver disease. The studied variables were age and sex; prothrombin time; platelet count; albumin, cholesterol, bilirubin, creatinine, and serum sodium concentrations; CP classification and MELD score; and the presence of ascites, encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and previous variceal bleeding. Data were processed using statistical software (SPSS version 13.0).Of the 144 patients, 27 (18.7%) did not survive because of complications of liver disease. Univariate analysis showed the most significant factors to be sex, prothrombin time, bilirubin and albumin levels; ascites, encephalopathy, CP classification, and MELD score. At Cox regression analysis, only CP classification proved to be a valid predictor of survival in our cohort. The lowest survival according to CP classification at 6 and 12 months corresponded to stage C and to MELD scores higher than 15.Child-Pugh classification is an independent prognostic factor for recipient survival. Stage C in the CP classification and a MELD score higher than 15 were strongly related to worse survival. Both scores must be taken into consideration for adequate evaluation of liver transplantation for candidates.
World journal of hepatology, 2017
To determine the impact of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) on waiting list (WL) and post liver retransplantation (LRT) survival. Comparative study of all adult patients assessed for primary liver transplant (PLT) (n = 1090) and patients assessed for LRT (n = 150), 2000-2007 at our centre. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were recorded. Median age for all patients was 53 years and 66% were men. Median model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score was 15. Median follow-up was 7-years. For retransplant patients, 84 (56%) had ≥ 1 comorbidity. The most common comorbidity was renal impairment in 66 (44.3%). WL mortality was higher in patients with ≥ 1 comorbidity (76% vs 53%, P = 0.044). CCI (OR = 2.688, 95%CI: 1.222-5.912, P = 0.014) was independently associated with WL mortality. Patients with MELD score ≥ 18 had inferior WL survival (Log-Rank 6.469, P = 0.011). On multivariate analysis, CCI (OR = 2.823, 95%CI: 1.563-5101, P = 0.001), MELD score ≥ 18 (OR 2.506, 95%CI: 1....
Shiraz E-Medical Journal
Background: Prevention of death in patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation (LT) is a major concern to prioritize organ allocation. Since the model for the end-stage liver disease (MELD) and its modifications have many shortages, there is a need for further refinement of the allocation strategy. Objectives: The current study aimed at assessing the predictors of mortality in LT candidates in a more comprehensive manner with the possible implications to improve the care of such patients and assist in developing better strategies for organ allocation. Methods: In the current cohort study, 544 adult LT candidates with end-stage liver disease were followed up for a mean of 12 months in three-month intervals. Data analysis was performed in Nutritionist, SPSS, and R software, using Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazard (HRC), and LASSO Cox regression hazard (HRL) tests. Results: The mean age of the patients was 46.7 ± 13.7 years; the majority were male (n = 336, 61.7%). At th...
European journal of gastroenterology & hepatology, 2015
Early allograft dysfunction after liver transplantation (LTX) is not well defined. The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of early post-transplant model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores for predicting long-term outcome after transplantation. In this single-center retrospective study, 362 consecutive patients after LTX were included. MELD scores at 7, 14, and 21 postoperative days (PODs) were calculated from primary lab values. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were carried out to determine the critical cutoff MELD scores for patient and graft survival. One year after transplantation, the patient and graft survival rates were 85 and 69%, respectively. Although pretransplant MELD scores were similar, they were significantly different at POD7, POD14, and POD21 between patients who died and those who survived the first year after transplantation. As shown by ROC curves, for patient survival, the optimal time point is POD14 with a cutoff MELD of 17. At th...
Liver Transplantation, 2003
Although living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is a successful procedure for most recipients, outcomes in patients who undergo transplantation as United Network for Organ Sharing status 2A are marginal. There are no published data on living donor liver transplant recipient outcomes relative to Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. Such information could be useful in living donor liver transplant recipient selection. We retrospectively analyzed all non-fulminant hepatic failure, right hepatic lobe, adult-to-adult living donor liver transplant recipients at our center between August 1997 and March 2002. We calculated MELD scores at the time of LDLT and correlated scores with 1-year patient and graft survival and hospital days during the 90-day post-LDLT period. There were 62 recipients with greater than 6 months of follow-up: 38 men, 24 women; mean age, 47.9 years; 42 white, 1 black, 17 Hispanic, and 2 Asian patients. Twenty-nine patients had hepatitis C virus infection; 4 patients, hepatitis C virus infection and alcoholic liver disease; 4 patients, alcoholic liver disease; 4 patients, cryptogenic cirrhosis; 13 patients, primary sclerosing cholangitis; 5 patients, autoimmune hepatitis; and 3 patients, primary biliary cirrhosis. Mean and median MELD scores were 15.2 and 13, respectively (range, 6 to 40). One-year patient and graft survival were 59 of 62 patients (95%) and 52 of 62 patients (84%), respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between median MELD scores of dead versus living patients (15 v 13; P ؍ .15) or patients who underwent retransplantation versus those who did not (16.5 v 13; P ؍ .30). Mean and median hospital days in the 90-day post-LDLT period were 23.7 and 16.0 days, respectively. Living donor liver transplant recipients with a MELD score of 18 or greater had significantly more hospital days compared with recipients with a MELD score less than 18 (35.2 v 19.8 days; P ؍ .01). In conclusion, MELD scores did not predict post-LDLT patient or graft survival at 1 year. However, higher MELD scores (>18) were associated with more hospital days during the 3-month post-LDLT period.