A High Resolution Land Use/Cover Modelling Framework for Europe: Introducing the EU-ClueScanner100 Model (original) (raw)

A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use

The Annals of Regional Science, 2008

Europe's rural areas are expected to witness massive and rapid changes in land use due to changes in demography, global trade, technology and enlargement of the European Union. Changes in demand for agricultural products and agrarian production structure are likely to have a large impact on landscape quality and the value of natural areas. Most studies address these changes either from a macro-economic perspective focusing on changes in the agricultural sector or from a local perspective by analyzing recent changes in landscapes for small case studies. This paper describes a methodology in which a series of models has been used to link global level developments influencing land use to local level impacts. It is argued that such an approach is needed to properly address the processes at different scales that give rise to the land use dynamics in Europe. An extended version of the global economic model (GTAP) and an integrated assessment model (IMAGE) are used to calculate changes in demand for agricultural areas at the country level while a spatially explicit land use change model (CLUE-s) was used to translate these demands to land use patterns at 1 km 2 resolution. The global economic model ensures an appropriate treatment of

Calibrating and validating the Land Use Scanner algorithms 15 TH European Colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography September 7-11 , 2007 , Montreux , Switzerland

2007

The Land Use Scanner is a spatial model that simulates future land use. Since its development in 1997 it has been applied in many policy-related land use projects. In 2005 a completely revised version became available. In this version land use can be modelled at a more detailed 100 meter resolution as opposed to the original 500 meter resolution. Furthermore the new version offers the possibility to model homogenous cells that offer a discrete description of land use, in stead of the original continuous description that listed the fraction claimed by different types of land use in each cell. In this paper we describe the calibration and validation of the two modelling approaches available in the Land Use Scanner model. We used multinomial logistic regression methods to obtain the suitability values for the different land-use types. The resulting simulations are then compared to the observed land use in the base year (calibration) and a future year (validation).

A comparison of approaches to spatially explicit modelling of land use/cover change

1999

The process of land use and land cover change is closely related to a wide variety of socio-economic and environmental issues. Functions of land such as food production, housing, industry and habitat are in permanent competition, resulting in an optimal or suboptimal allocation of land use. At the same time, certain land use types are associated with the issue of climate change through carbon sequestration and the emission of trace gasses. Researchers in these issues have developed several approaches to modelling the land use allocation process. As each approach has its own benefits and its specific goal, these approaches need to be given a position in the wide field of land use modelling.

Spatial Analysis of Land-Use Changes as Knowledge Tools in Support of European Spatial Policies and Ecosystem Health

Ecosystem Health, 1999

Cost-effective decision making calls for appropriate methods for the modeling, forecasting, and presentation of problem-specific information. This paper discusses the systematic use of remote-sensing derived information to assess the impact of past policies and to support the definition of sustainable European spatial policies through an example of landscape change analysis. A case study of landscape changes along parts of the European coastline between the mid-70s and early-90s is reported, providing an integrated assessment addressing possible causes and effects related to natural and labor resources. The impact of human activities on changes in the natural landscape is discussed both from a qualitative and a quantitative viewpoint.

Hotspots of land use change in Europe

Environmental Research Letters, 2016

Assessing changes in the extent and management intensity of land use is crucial to understanding land-system dynamics and their environmental and social outcomes. Yet, changes in the spatial patterns of land management intensity, and thus how they might relate to changes in the extent of land uses, remains unclear for many world regions. We compiled and analyzed high-resolution, spatiallyexplicit land-use change indicators capturing changes in both the extent and management intensity of cropland, grazing land, forests, and urban areas for all of Europe for the period 1990-2006. Based on these indicators, we identified hotspots of change and explored the spatial concordance of area versus intensity changes. We found a clear East-West divide with regard to agriculture, with stronger cropland declines and lower management intensity in the East compared to the West. Yet, these patterns were not uniform and diverging patterns of intensification in areas highly suitable for farming, and disintensification and cropland contraction in more marginal areas emerged. Despite the moderate overall rates of change, many regions in Europe fell into at least one land-use change hotspot during 1990-2006, often related to a spatial reorganization of land use (i.e., co-occurring area decline and intensification or co-occurring area increase and disintensification). Our analyses highlighted the diverse spatial patterns and heterogeneity of land-use changes in Europe, and the importance of jointly considering changes in the extent and management intensity of land use, as well as feedbacks among land-use sectors. Given this spatial differentiation of land-use change, and thus its environmental impacts, spatially-explicit assessments of land-use dynamics are important for context-specific, regionalized land-use policy making.

Assessing Land-Use Changes in European Territories: A Retrospective Study from 1990 to 2012

Land Use - Assessing the Past, Envisioning the Future [Working Title]

The need to understand what land use is has motivated the development of programmes that aims to identify it and quantify it-CORINE Land Cover (CLC) in 1985. From this official and open geodatabase-through the using of geographic information system (GIS) tools-the amount of area established for each land use has been identified in all the 28 member states of the EU. This mostly corresponds to agricultural and forestry uses. Between 1990 and 2012, it was possible to determine countries with variable land use models such as Finland, Latvia, Portugal and Spain-the rest of the states presenting stable land use models. Additionally, some countries are characterized by the predominance of one or two land uses. Contextually, the proposal aims to develop a retrospective study regarding the land-use changes in the EU territories from 1990 to 2012, through the available tools such as CLC.

A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2006

This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns are further downscaled from a resolution of 10 min to 250 m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops.

Models of Urban Land Use in Europe: Assessment Tools and Criticalities

The aim of this paper is to examine available homogenous data on urban conversion of land in Western European countries and determine whether they are suitable to make an international comparison between land policies and management behaviour at the local level. This paper provides some results obtained from currently available information, but it stresses major data production criticalities which hinder the performance of comparable and reliable overall statistical studies. Conclusions stress the need for greater detail in the production of primary data on the features and magnitude of territorial urbanisation in Europe, as the EEA is doing for main cities. Moreover, this paper includes some remarks on the contents of the preliminary documents of EU soil directive. In particular, it focuses on the issue of urban transformation thresholds over time, a topic that has already been tackled by some northern European countries, however using techniques which cannot be applied as they are to all other countries.