Assessment and Application of Two General Circulation Models (HadCM3 and MPEH5) for Investigating Climate Change (Case Study: Khorramabad Synoptic Station, Iran) (original) (raw)
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A semiempirical approach for downscaling general circulation model (GCM) based daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) and predicting local climatological variables under climate change is developed. Specifically, the daily 500-hPa surface outputs of the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) (Germany) GCMs are linked stochastically, using a split sampling approach, to local temperature and precipitation in Nebraska. Three series of data are analyzed' historical data, 1 x CO2 GCM results and 2 x CO2 GCM results. Between these three data sets, no significant difference can be detected in either CP typology (constructed by principal component analysis and k means method) or stochastic properties of daily time series (Markov matrix). On the other hand, the average geopotential height of the 500-hPa pressure field exhibits significant change, labeled the ACO2 effect, between the 1 x C02 and 2 x CO2 cases. Accordingly, climate change is assumed to be represented by the historical average geopotential height augmented by the ACO2 increment. It is found that both the CCC and MPI GCMs lead to predicting a winter temperature increase of 3ø-6øC, a smaller but significant increase in spring and fall temperatures, and no increase in summer. The probability of precipitation occurrence is found to remain almost unchanged, as well as the dry period duration. The estimates of local response to climate change depend upon the location and the GCM used for downscaling the CP. The MPI GCM, which includes an ocean-atmosphere coupling, appears to yield smaller downscaled changes than the purely atmosphere-based CCC GCM. The magnitude and consequence of local response to anticipated climate change are difficult to estimate [Houghton et al., 1990; Tegart and Sheldon, 1993]. GCMs are able to represent the features of general circulation [e.g., Simmons and Bengtsson, !988], but their ability to describe local climatic conditions is rather weak so that a downscaling of GCM output is needed. It is well known that the magnitude of estimated global climate change induced by doubling of the CO2 gas concentration varies within a wide range The Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) GCM is a threedimensional atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a simple "slab" ocean and a thermodynamic ice model as described by Boer et al. [!984a]. An improved version of the CCC GCM characterized by higher resolution (3.75 ø x 3.75 ø) and improved physics has been completed in 1989. Our analysis uses the output of this second-generation GCM. Under the 2 x CO2 equilibrium climate the model gives a 3.5øC annual mean increase of surface air temperature averaged over the Earth [Boer et al., 1984b]. The estimated precipitation increase is about 3.8%. The difference between the 1 x CO2 and 2 x CO2 climates varies in both space and time. For instance, almost all the North American continent shows at least 4øC warming in December-February, but a major central portion of that area exhibits at least 6øC warming. In contrast, the period June-August shows only a 0ø-4øC warming over the same areas. Precipitation exhibits even greater variability.