Determination of the Level and Trend of Fertility in Four Provinces in South Africa (original) (raw)
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The South African Fertility Decline: Evidence From Two Censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey
Population Studies, 2003
Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility decline from 1955 to 1996. Having identified and adjusted for several errors in the 1996 Census data, the paper argues that total fertility at that time was 3.2 children per woman nationally, and 3.5 children per woman for African South Africans. These levels are lower than in any other sub‐Saharan African country. We show also that fertility in South Africa has been falling since the 1960s. Thus, fertility transition predates the establishment of a family planning programme in the country in 1974.
Estimates of provincial fertility and mortality in South Africa, 1985—1996
Southern African Journal of Demography, 2004
This paper presents estimates of South African provincial child and adult mortality, and fertility for 1986 to 1996. Fertility and child mortality rates are derived using data from the 1996 census adjusted where necessary using information from the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey. Adult mortality rates for 1996 were produced using the vital registration data in combination with the population data from the 1996 census and completeness of the registration of child deaths. These estimates suggest that the national total fertility rate fell from 3.67 in 1986 to 3.29 in 1996 and ranged between 2.63 to 4.01 for the individual provinces in 1996. Child mortality ( 5 q 0 ) fell from 73 per 1 000 in 1986 to 57 per 1 000 in 1992 before increasing to 70 per 1 000 by 1996, and ranged between 40 and 95 for individual provinces in 1996. Life expectancy at birth in 1996 was 57 years for males (ranging from 53 to 61.5 for individual provinces) and 65 for females (ranging from 62 to 69 for individual provinces).
Fertility declines : patterns and causes Towards below replacement fertility in Southern Africa
2005
Aims: To analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and of increasing HIV/AIDS. Methods: A health and demographic surveillance system is in place since 1992 in Agincourt, on a population of approximately 70 000 persons, with annual census and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented with a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility, survival and net reproduction. When possible, they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group. Results: The fertility transition has almost ended over a period of 25 years in Agincourt. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979, and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in a proportionate fashion in all age groups, including adolescents in the recent period. The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992-2004). At the current rates of changes in fertility and mortality, the NRR could be expected to reach 0.63 by year 2010. Conclusions: The situation of a below replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa, and is likely to have many demographic, economic and social implications in the future. The population might even decline for the country as a whole, and is already stagnating in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess of natural increase.
Estimates of Fertility for South Africa based on Rele Method, 1996-2011
Journal of Human Ecology, 2013
The paper uses the 1996, 2001 and 2011 censuses and 2007 Community Survey to study levels, trends and differentials in fertility in South Africa using the Rele method that estimates fertility from the reported age distributions. At national level, Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remained constant at 3.3 children p er woman between 1996 and 2001 but declined to 2.4 and 2.2 children per woman in 2007 and 2011, respectively. There are variations in fertility by province and population group. Fertility is lower among the affluent provinces of Gauteng, Western Cape and Free State than the disadvantaged provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Eastern Cape and North West. Fertility has remained largely unchanged in Free State and Mpumalanga and has decreased in all the other provinces with exception of Western Cape and Kwazulu-Natal which suggest a rise in fertility during the period under review. The factors responsible for such a pattern are not fully understood and remain to be established by further research.
1999
This paper presents an assessment of fertility levels and trends in South Africa since the 1980s. The decline of fertility in South Africa prior to the end of apartheid is explored. Despite the lack of credible data there does seem to be widespread agreement that fertility began to decline in South Africa prior to the end of the apartheid among all its major population groups. What remains unknown is whether there has been a pervasive decline in fertility across all age groups and parities remains unknown. This study focused on contemporary features of South African fertility. It utilized a 10% sample of the 1996 South African population census and estimated fertility levels and trends for South Africa during 1981-96. The study also examined marital and nonmarital fertility. In general fertility has been declining in South Africa among all the major population age groups across all age groups since 1980s. Further fertility declines were observed the most among Africans which were at...
Estimation of fertility from the 2007 Community Survey of South Africa
2010
List of abbreviations and acronyms ASFR Age-specific fertility rate CEB Number of children ever born CDEAD Number of children dead CS Community Survey CSurv Number of children surviving CSurv H Number of children surviving and staying in same household with their mother CSurv A Number of children surviving but staying elsewhere (not with their mother) DHS Demographic and Health Survey MAC Mean age of child bearing OHS October Household Survey SES Socioeconomic Status
The fertility transition in South Africa: A retrospective panel data analysis
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Since 1960 South Africa has seen a steep fall in fertility levels and currently the total fertility rate is the lowest on the African continent. Given the high prevailing levels of fertility in African countries, a better understanding of the factors behind the fertility transition can be valuable not only for South Africa, but also more widely for other African countries.