Predicting Ecological Responses to Environmental Flows: A Revew in Hindsight of a Novel Approach to Synthesize Literature Evidence, Expert Opinion and Monitoring Data (original) (raw)

Abstract

ABSTRACT In a world of increasing water scarcity, environmental flows programs need to be underpinned by robust quantitative predictions of the ecological benefits expected to result from returning water to the environment. However, many environmental flow recommendations have been qualitative and based upon expert opinion. We developed a process designed to make maximal use of all the information that can be brought to bear on the problem of modelling ecological responses to flow variation. It employs literature analysis, expert elicitation, and Bayesian hierarchical analysis of data from purpose-built monitoring programs. The process has been implemented through research associated with the Victorian Environmental Flows Monitoring and Assessment Program, in the Australian state of Victoria. While proving very successful in the derivation of general flow-response relationships that can be used in future to predict the ecological benefits of environmental flows programs, we encountered unforeseen difficulties with implementing the process within a science-management partnership. Our experience may assist future users to implement similar approaches successfully elsewhere in the world.

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