Reviewer (original) (raw)

2006

Abstract

— The basic notion of free flight is that aircrews obtain the freedom to select their trajectory including the responsibility of resolving conflicts with other aircraft. Under low en-route traffic loads there is general agreement that free flight can be safely applied. Under increasing traffic loads, however, the answer to this question becomes unknown. Free flight would change ATM in such a fundamental way, that one can speak of a paradigm shift and that comes with emerging behavior, i.e. novel behavior which is exhibited at the system-wide level and emerges from the combined dynamical actions and reactions by individual systems and humans that affect the operations. Because emerging behavior cannot be predicted from previous experience, we need a complementary approach in estimating the safety of free flight under relatively high traffic levels. This paper explains how recently developed methods in Petri net specification and sequential Monte Carlo simulation can be used to make p...

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