Brazil’s sugarcane embitters the EU-Mercosur trade talks (original) (raw)
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Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2018
We estimate emissions from indirect land-use change associated with U.S. corn ethanol production by using the updated CARD/FAPRI global agricultural outlook model which incorporates sub-national landuse modeling in Brazil and endogenous crop yield-price relationships. Emissions estimates are 9.7-23.9 g CO 2 per mega Joule (MJ −1) which is consistent with other estimates. We compare the results of the current model to the 2008 model version. Using the data from the 2016 model in the 2008 model results in emissions of 23.2-32.2 g CO 2 MJ −1. The addition of detailed modelling in Brazil, e.g., doublecropping, reduced estimates considerably and highlights the importance of continuous improvements in global agricultural models. 1 43% of all countries that experience land-use change expansion.
Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, 2019
Due to its low share of energy-related emissions, energy systems models have overlooked the implications of technological transition in the agricultural sector and its interaction in the wider energy system. This paper explores the role of agriculture intensification by using a novel agricultural-based energy systems model. The aim is to explore the future role of Brazil's agriculture and its dynamics with other energy sectors under two carbon constraint scenarios. The main focus has been to study resource competition between sugarcane and natural gas at a country level. Results show that in order to meet the future food and bioenergy demand, the agricultural sector would start intensifying by 2030, improving productivity at the expense of higher energy demand; however, land-related emissions would be minimised due to freed-up pasture land and reduction in deforestation rates. Additionally, the development of balanced bioenergy and natural gas markets may help limit the sugarcane expansion rates, preserving up to 12.6 million hectares of forest land, with significant emissions benefits.
Environmental, land-use and economic implications of Brazilian sugarcane expansion 1996–2006
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2009
Governments are promoting biofuels and the resulting changes in land use and crop reallocation to biofuels production have raised concerns about impacts on environment and food security. The promotion of biofuels has also been questioned based on suggested marginal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions reduction, partly due to induced land use change causing greenhouse gas emissions. This study reports how the expansion of sugarcane in Brazil during 1996–2006 affected indicators for environment, land use and economy. The results indicate that sugarcane expansion did not in general contribute to direct deforestation in the traditional agricultural region where most of the expansion took place. The amount of forests on farmland in this area is below the minimum stated in law and the situation did not change over the studied period. Sugarcane expansion resulted in a significant reduction of pastures and cattle heads and higher economic growth than in neighboring areas. It could not be established to what extent the discontinuation of cattle production induced expansion of pastures in other areas, possibly leading to indirect deforestation. However, the results indicate that a possible migration of the cattle production reached further than the neighboring of expansion regions. Occurring at much smaller rates, expansion of sugarcane in regions such as the Amazon and the Northeast region was related to direct deforestation and competition with food crops, and appear not to have induced economic growth. These regions are not expected to experience substantial increases of sugarcane in the near future, but mitigating measures are warranted.
Global Biofuel Expansion and the Demand for Brazilian Land: Intensification versus Expansion
2011
We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level. This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity international agricultural model, used to quantify the emergence of biofuels and to analyze the impact of biofuel expansion and policies on both Brazilian and world agriculture. We evaluate two scenarios in which we introduce a 25% exogenous increase in the global demand for ethanol and one scenario in which we increase global ethanol demand by 50%. We then analyze the impact of these increases in terms of land-use change and commodity price changes particularly in Brazil. In the first scenario, we assume that the enforcement of the land-use reserve in Brazil remains at historically observed levels, and that abundant additional land can be readily incorporated into production. The second scenario involves implementing ...
Exploring future scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil and their land-use implications
Energy Policy, 2019
Ethanol biofuel demand in Brazil is highly dependent on macroeconomic and policy drivers, making it difficult to anticipate future production and associated environmental implications. Here we develop scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil towards 2030, based on a thorough examination of key influencing drivers, i.e. GDP and population growth, fleet composition, blending policies, fuel prices and energy efficiency. We then estimate their land-use implications using a detailed partial equilibrium model, GLOBIOM-Brazil. We find that ethanol demand is highly sensitive to the drivers considered and could increase between 37.4 and 70.7 billion litres in 2030 depending on the scenario. Such increase is 13% and 114% above the 2018 consumption level. This represents an expansion in sugarcane area between 1.2 and 5 million hectares (14%-58% above the land-use in 2018). Compared to the low demand scenario, a high demand for ethanol in 2030 would drive sugarcane expansion mostly into 2 pastureland (72%) and natural vegetation mosaics (19%). Our results suggest that future ethanol demand in Brazil should not substantially affect food production nor native forest. This outcome will however depend on the compliance with the sugarcane agro-ecological zoning (AEZ) by the ethanol sector in Brazil, a key assumption of our projections.
Land Use Change, Ethanol Production Expansion and Food Security in Brazil
2017
The concurrence of major increases in ethanol production and world commodity price increases were captured by the ‘food-versus-fuel’ dilemma around 2008. Brazil is the largest producer of ethanol worldwide and still has vast tracts of natural land available. This paper uses Brazil as case study to simulate food security and environmental impacts, especially on forests, of increased biofuel production. Results show that sugarcane production is concentrated in higher productivity regions so reaching the 2022 ethanol target would require only 0.07 Mha of new land, or 0.02% additional deforestation over baseline. Second, per-area production intensifies as land prices increase, indicating a nonlinear relationship between land area and production. Specifically, results indicate an average indirect land use change effect of 0.083 ha of new agricultural land for every 1.0 ha of additional sugarcane. Current discussions of biofuel expansion miss this critical point of intensification, which ...
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015
The potential for sugarcane ethanol from Brazil to mitigate GHG emissions is undeniable, but the way that ethanol is produced during the agricultural and industrial phases will ultimately determine its benefits to society. In this paper, we evaluate the environmental impacts of sugarcane agriculture and ethanol production in Brazil as management practices continue to change and production expands to new frontiers. We focused our evaluation on the impacts on water, atmosphere, and soils, including how the application of organic and inorganic fertilizers and the accumulation of crop residue in the field affect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). We also addressed the impacts of land use changes on threatened biomes and discussed some of the present obstacles regarding conservation and restoration efforts. We concluded that, since a similar assessment was put forth in 2008, our knowledge about the environmental impacts of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil has advanced with regard to soil degradation, nitrogen dynamics, and soil carbon stocks. However, more information is still needed about the impacts of the increasing use of pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers in sugarcane agriculture, especially on water resources. Furthermore, without a better understanding about how landscape fragmentation affects the biodiversity of terrestrial and aquatic tropical ecosystems and the services they provide, policies created to protect and restore them may be ineffective. On the other hand, the use of presently available scientific information to end unsustainable farming and the implementation of conservation strategies proposed by the Brazilian Forest Code could be a first step to guarantee that ethanol is produced more sustainably in Brazil.
Energy Policy, 2011
Three sustainability aspects of bioethanol production in Brazil were considered in this paper. Results show that the recent expansion of sugarcane has mostly occurred at the expense of pasturelands and other temporary crops, and that the hypothesis of induced deforestation is not confirmed. Avoided greenhouse gas emissions due to the use of anhydrous ethanol blended with gasoline in Brazil (E25) were estimated as 78%, while this figure would be 70% in case of its use in Europe (E10). Conversely, considering the direct impacts of land use change, the avoided emissions (e.g., ethanol consumed in Europe) would vary from À 2.2% (i.e., emissions slightly higher than gasoline) to 164.8% (a remarkable carbon capture effect) depending on the management practices employed previous to land use change and also along sugarcane cropping. In addition, it was shown that where the bulk of sugarcane production takes place, in state of São Paulo, positive socio-economic aspects are observed. The general conclusion is that a significant share of ethanol production in Brazil can be considered sustainable, in particular regarding the three aspects assessed. However, as production conditions are extremely heterogeneous, a generalization of results is not possible.