Policy-based Abstention: An Application to Brazil’s 2002 Presidential Election (original) (raw)
Related papers
Political Science Research and Methods, 2018
Invalid voting and absenteeism are alternative sources of abstention under compulsory voting. Previous research failed to systematically study the mechanisms behind each form of non-voting and the relationships between them. We develop an analytical framework and an empirical strategy to jointly examine invalid voting and absenteeism in Brazil, the world’s largest democracy with mandatory voting. Using Bayesian inferential methods and analyzing both individual and district-level data, we show that less educated and politically knowledgeable citizens are less likely to vote and, when they do, they are typically unable to successfully complete their ballot. Unlike absenteeism, invalid voting also has a political dimension reflecting voters’ disenchantment with elections and democratic performance. Both sources of abstention coexist and, together, undermine electoral participation.
Abstentionism, Blank Vote and Invalid Ballot Papers. Evidences from Brazil and E.U.
Abstentionism, blank vote and invalid ballots are electoral phenomena that are statistically growing in many Countries but don´t receive much attention and when they do, they are usually treated with a strong negative bias. This article explore this issue and it is divided in three part: In the first part we analyze how the literature currently defines and treats abstentionism, blank vote and invalid ballot. We find out they are usually treated as a single and unique “non-vote area” and we propose a different approach based in a more detailed view, combining methodological individualism and imperfect rationality. In the second part we show the empirical relevance of this three types of electoral outcomes in EU parliamentary elections and in Brazilian presidential ones. In the last part, we notice a negative bias toward these electoral behaviors to which we oppose a different point of view. In this line, at the end, we propose some possible changes in electoral systems in order to better intercept voters will.
A General Model of Abstention Under Compulsory Voting
Political Science Research and Methods, 2016
Invalid voting and absenteeism are alternative sources of abstention under compulsory voting. Previous research failed to systematically study the mechanisms behind each form of non-voting and the relationships between them. We develop an analytical framework and an empirical strategy to jointly examine invalid voting and absenteeism in Brazil, the world’s largest democracy with mandatory voting. Using Bayesian inferential methods and analyzing both individual and district-level data, we show that less educated and politically knowledgeable citizens are less likely to vote and, when they do, they are typically unable to successfully complete their ballot. Unlike absenteeism, invalid voting also has a political dimension reflecting voters’ disenchantment with elections and democratic performance. Both sources of abstention coexist and, together, undermine electoral participation.
Political Behavior, 2017
Rates of invalid voting in Latin America are among the highest in the world. Yet, scholars have not reached an agreement about whether these votes are driven by voter protest and, if so, what voters are protesting. Understanding whether these high invalid vote rates signify anti-democratic tendencies is particularly relevant given recent recessions in democratic quality across the region. This paper presents a theoretical framework and empirical tests using individual level data from 14 Latin American countries to show that invalid voting in presidential contests is used by individuals, particularly those high in knowledge, to protest poor government performance. However, invalid voting is not, on balance, an anti-system behavior. While political alienation differentially predicts invalid voting in countries with mandatory vote laws, the link between performance assessments and selfreported invalid voting is consistent across various contextual features that scholars link to invalid voting behavior.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
(Germany). Before he joined the faculty in Kiel he did research at the University Mannheim, Stanford University and at the "Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung". He also operated as a consultant for the FAO, the European Union and further international and national organizations. Daniel Diaz is doctoral student in the Department of Agricultural Policy at the Agricultural Economics Institute in the University of Kiel (Germany). He studied business administration and he acquired an MSc in international business economics. His main research interests are probabilistic voter models and modelling capture and accountability for central Governments. Andrea Lendewig is doctoral student in the Department of Agricultural Policy at the Agricultural Economics Institute in the University of Kiel (Germany). She studied accountancy and she acquired an MSc in international business economics. Her main research interests are probabilistic voter models and modelling capture and accountability for central Governments. Dr. agr. Svetlana Petri is a post doctoral researcher at the Department of Agricultural Policy at the Agricultural Economics Institute in the University of Kiel (Germany). Among her research interests are: Election Models of local and central Governments, Decentralisation of Infrastructure Delivery in Developing Countries, Determination of Capture and Accountibility Factors in Developing Countries, and Influence of Elite-Networks on the political decision Process in Developing Countries.
Does optional voting impact the profile of the Brazilian electorate? A study on the 2018 elections (Atena Editora), 2024
The research aims to analyze voter turnout in the 2018 presidential elections, from two perspectives: understanding who are the voters who declared having participated in the elections and who are the voters who would participate if the elections were not mandatory. To achieve these objectives, we will use data from the Brazilian Electoral Study – ESEB, a survey applied in 2018, with a representative sample of Brazilian voters. The research concluded that the main factors associated with the propensity to attend elections are interest in politics and income, as they have an impactful effect on the individual decision to participate.
The Impact of Voter Uncertainty and Alienation on Turnout and Candidate Policy Choice
The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, 2014
Formal models of elections typically assume that voters are sure of their ideal points on the policy spectrum. Meanwhile, the empirical evidence suggests that voters are often uncertain about their ideal positions. In addition, alienation appears to play a key role in explaining voter turnout in elections. Using a spatial model that incorporates abstentions and the concepts of alienation and tolerance, I show that a positive correlation between extreme policy preferences and certainty among voters can affect voter turnout and result in the divergence of candidate policy choices.
Determinants of voter participation in Latin American referendums
Política y Sociedad, 2022
Voter turnout in regular parliamentary or presidential elections is a very frequent topic, mainly in the recent debate about its decline. This article works with several theories explaining variations in voter turnout that are subsequently applied on referendums in Latin America. Referendums as one of the main pillars of direct democracy are not, in this regard, sufficiently scientifically explored topic. In this point of view, the region of Latin America is an ideal environment for research of the given subject, because there are many cases of direct democracy applications in the institutional configuration as well as in practice. Voter turnout in referendums is set into a comparative perspective using regression models that allow the researcher to monitor possible correlations and control explaining values. The analysis employs aggregate data from various statistical databases (e. g. V-Dem, Polity IV, World Bank) as well as secondary data from available comparative literature foc...
This chapter investigates the amount of variability in individual turnout decisions over time and its dependence on the changing characteristics of political parties as one feature of the political context. Electoral participation in the German federal elections from 1994 to 2013 was characterized by inertia for most eligible voters. However, one reason for dynamics in turnout behavior is changes in individual alienation with regard to the political parties. When voters develop a more favorable view of the political parties than in the previous election in terms of the parties’ generalized evaluation or perceived competence, then they are motivated to switch from abstention to voting (and vice versa). But the political parties’ capacity to raise turnout rates is rather narrow compared to the influence of other determinants, such as the perceived duty to vote.