Early Stage Probabilistic Software Project Schedule Estimation (original) (raw)

Probabilistic Completion Time in Project Scheduling

— There are two common used methods to find the minimum completion time for a project scheduling. These methods are Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT). In CPM, a network diagram, which is Activity on Node (AON), is drawn and the slack time for every activity is calculated such that the project's critical path could be found. It is important that the critical path can suggest the shortest possible completion time. On the other hand, PERT concerns on uncertainty and risk in a project. It has three time estimates, which are optimistic, pessimistic and most likely, and all the time estimates mentioned follows the beta distribution. Besides, the probability in completing the project within certain duration is calculated by using the standard normal distribution. As the risk cannot be avoided in a project, it is important to keep track on any changes and to minimize the completion time for a project. Both of the methods are used to calculate the shortest possible completion time, slack and critical path. The difference between these methods is CPM has only one determined time estimate, while PERT has three time estimates, which shows the uncertainty in the duration of an activity in a project. For illustration, the data used for the construction of a three-room house was studied. The results show that the minimum completion time for the project is 44 days with a success probability 0.91. In conclusion, CPM and PERT are practical tool in the project scheduling.

Learning the Efficient Estimation Techniques for Successful Software Project Management

Innovare Journal of Engineering and Technology

The process of software project management involves planning and supervising the development of software projects to deliver a quality product within the customer’s budget and schedule. This process begins with project planning, which includes estimating the work to be done, required resources, and project schedule. Once these activities are accomplished, a project schedule is established that defines software engineering tasks, identifies responsible parties, and specifies inter-task dependencies. The paper aims to explore project management activities and techniques for estimating project size. Overall, software project management involves managing, allocating, and timing resources to develop software that meets requirements and is delivered within budget and schedule. This paper highlights the significance of employing efficient estimation methods to achieve successful software project management. Estimation plays a critical role in the software development process, as it helps p...

Probabilistic Project Duration Estimation Based on Uncertainty of Linkage between Activities

Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2020

Generally, one of the most difficult works at scheduling is to estimate the duration of activities and linkages between them because the possibility that the duration and linkages could be exposed to the uncertainties is very high. When estimating project duration, therefore, the probabilistic estimation of the duration as well as the probabilistic estimation of the linkages between activities should be considered concurrently. The Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) that is considered to be one of the most popular techniques applied for the probabilistic estimation of a project duration cannot consider the uncertainties of the linkages because it only estimates the probabilistic duration limited to "FS0" relationship. The purpose of this study is to propose the new method, the Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique (PLET), for probabilistically estimating the project duration based on the probabilistic estimation of the BDM's relationships, and also provide more wide and various probabilistic information about the project duration.

Toward an effort estimation model for software projects integrating risk

arXiv: Software Engineering, 2015

According to a study of The Standish Group International, 44% of software projects cost more and last longer than expected. More accurate the effort estimation is; the better the enterprise gets organized and the more the software project respects the commitments on budget, time and quality. Enhancing the accuracy of effort estimation remains an ongoing challenge to software professionals. Several factors can influence the accuracy of effort estimation, namely the immaterial aspect of information system projects, new technologies and the lack of return on experience. However, the most important factor of cost and delay increase is software risks. A software risk is an uncertain event with a negative consequence on the software project. In this article, we propose a methodology to take into account risk exposure analysis in the effort estimation model. In the literature, this issue is little addressed and few approaches are investigated. In this research work, we first present an overview of these approaches and their limits. Then, we propose an effort estimation model that improves the accuracy of estimation by integrating software risks. We finally apply this model to a case study and compare its results to the results of a classic model.

Software Project Schedulinganalysis

International Journal of Advanced Research, 2022

Along with the number of projects received and must be completed on time by PT. EKIOSKU, where project scheduling has been carried out using the estimation method, so that it has an impact on the results of estimating time, human resources, and estimated costs of software projects that are quite large. In addition, for the tasksperformed by the project manager, its still carried out in an inefficient verbal way because each workforce has different abilities. Based on the existing problem conditions, itis necessary to recalculate for project scheduling by using the Function Point and COCOMO methods, it is hoped that it cangive an idealabor needs, processingtime, and project costs required.